TWG XLIII - My Name is Mephistopheles

[Bird]

YEAH TBWCW WHY CANT YOU BE A GREAT PLAYER LIKE SHADOWKIRBY

I think it's even more obvious that he's human though.

[Mephistopheles]

Two Humans, Two Wolves:

Bird
shadowkirby
the_last_sheikah
The Boy Who Cried Wolf

[Bird]

I find that a little hard to believe, but whatever, let's roll with it.

I'm positive we've killed two wolves already, and I'm certain (through means I cannot disclose) that the_last_sheikah is human. Meaning that the last wolves are shadowkirby and TBWCW.

gg

[Mephistopheles]

TWG XLIII: My Name is Mephistopheles

15 Players:
1 Master Wolf (green)
3 Wolves (red)
Faust - Seer* (blue)
Gretchen - Guardian* (blue)
9 Humans (green)

*There's a 50/50 chance for seering and guardings to be effective. A coin flip will occur (best two out of three) between the two and the winner's power will work. The loser will be told (s)he lost the coin flip when they'd normally get results.

1. vermilionvermin
2. SocialFox
3. gzgregory
4. FSM-Reapr
5. davy
6. Waddle Bro
7. The Boy Who Cried Wolf
8. SlowPokemon - 3x Phatoms
9. BlackDragonSlayer
10. blueflower999 - 1x Phantom
11. Dude
12. Bird
13. the_last_sheikah
14. Bubbles 7689
15. shadowkirby - 1x Phantom

Due to a misfile, blueflower has been cast away to the Sixth Circle, he was blue.
It is now Day 4, Day 4 ends 1:00 AM CST (7:00 AM GMT) Wednesday, Nov. 21

My Offices are still open, you may strike deals as you wish.

Please be aware that I reserve the right to stop taking deals, however if I do I will continue working on any approaches received before this point.

[vermilionvermin]

Time to analyze.

Blueflower's dead.  That's interesting.  We have 4 potential wolves based on the list:

Bird:  Barring a conversion, he's in all likelihood not a wolf given the fact that it said he was a miller earlier in the game.
Sheikah:  Bird says he's human, so I guess he probably is.
TBWCW:  He seems really human based on what he just sent out in that PM.
Shadowkirby:  I doubt you're a human.  Everyone else just has so much going for them, and you've got nothing.  I'll in all likelihood end up voting for you, so you better speak up, mister.

[Mephistopheles]

My Offices are Closed

I'm going to be really busy these few days before thanksgiving, and I'm not going to have time to process more deals.

If we are in the middle of negotiations I will continue to see them through. All standing deals are still in effect.

[Toby]

I'll go with shadowkirby has done much to prove himself.

[Bird]

Despite my confidence that TBWCW and SK are the final too wolves, if we make a mistake this phase, the wolves win.

eh, actually, fuck it let's just insta shadowkirby

[Bird]

Also on the chance that the list is not accurate, kudos to verm for fooling everyone with it.

[Bird]

Actually, I just realized that I hate losing more than I hate not looking cool. So I'm going to take the time to analyze all these blasted lists.

I think there are two really significant changes with the most recent list, compared to the last two (1, 2):

1. It wasn't posted directly after a lynch
2. It had additional information on it, telling us that two of the people on it were wolves.

If you look at the above lists, they're both posted within 10 minutes after a lynch, yet this one came out of the blue in the middle of a night phase. And it comes with information attached which incriminates a person (TBWCW) who seems pretty innocent to me. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I'm concerned that a wolf, banking on the idea that "everybody trusts these lists" has made a deal to have this totally inaccurate one released to the thread. It also wouldn't seem totally balanced for two wolves to be revealed like that, and we know how much Mephistopheles loves balance.

So yeah, it was an interesting tactic vermilionvermin, but I'm not fooled. No offense to the other players, but I think there's only one person this devious at NSM besides me, and its verm. Also, there's the whole thing where he turned into a wolf and couldn't explain why he turned back five minutes later. So yeah.

[Bird]

Also the_last_sheikah told me he was the guardian, so that's cool I guess

[Bird]

Oh, and one more thing (last post I swear!!!)
IF YOU'RE GOING TO READ ANY OF MY POSTS, READ THIS ONE

Why the list was made under a new deal, rather than the previous list-making deal:
I explained this in my above analysis post. There are big differences, including when it was posted (not after a lynch), and the additional information it contained.

Why the list is bullshit:
The host would never consent to a deal which actually revealed the last two wolves. He knew that I was a confirmed human, and he knew the_last_sheikah was the guardian. Would he ever definitively release the last two wolves? No, that's absurd. Therefore the list is fake. Additionally, TBWCW seems hella human, and even verm admitted it.

So who made the list:
verm, obviously. Isn't it convenient that, after being on two lists that likely pointed to him being a wolf, this one happens to exonerate him? That after I tell him he has one phase to argue his case, this evidence pops up making him definitively human? Yeah, it is. And this is a player known for complex tactics and bluffs. He knew people were blindly accepting lists, so he took advantage of that, and had a list of his own released.

Are you sure verm is a wolf? He's been helpful so far:
verm is always helpful as a wolf. And this list shit is just stacked on top of all the other stuff pointing to him being a wolf. Here are the biggest three factors.
1. He says his role changed to wolf for five minutes, but then Meph changed him back. Why would he change back so quickly, if there was a role swap? Did some new player make a deal in that five minute window? That's silly. And he can't explain it.
2. GZG subtly indicated that he was the mastermind behind the previous two lists. And he was using them to indicate that at least one of the people on it (he said "or") was a wolf. Well, Verm appeared on two lists, and I'm definitely not a wolf. Plenty of evidence for me.
3. His defenses have honestly been kind of shitty. I don't think his heart's really been in the game after he switched to a wolf role.

I'm very confident that he's a wolf at this point, so please vote for him.

[the_last_sheikah]

While I agree with bird, I know, for 100%, that shadowkirby is a wolf.  With the slight chance of bird lying, and I mean very slight, we should kill shadow now as he is confermed.

[Bird]

how is shadow confirmed

[vermilionvermin]

I think Shadow is a wolf.