TWG XLI: Gotta Lynch 'em All!

[Mashi]

Ping me next time, so that I realise it!

[vermilionvermin]

I'm torn again about Slow.  Defending gregory, or at least saying that he's not convinced about the evidence, is something I could see a wolf doing, especially since it was before greg implicated himself through his defense.  Unfortunately, Slow's next reaction is the exact reaction I'd expect from a rational human or wolf.  A rational wolf wants to make sure they're not associated with Gregory, and a rational human is convinced and votes for greg.  So his next reaction really doesn't tell us anything either way.

I think the most convincing thing against Slow is Greg's handling of his reveal.  Greg revealed spit but said he'd reveal BlackDragonSlayer.  He didn't follow through on that promise, obviously.  Some people have argued that that makes spitllama suspicious for being revealed out of the blue.  Some people have argued it makes BlackDragonSlayer suspicious for not being revealed.  I think that, at the time Gzgregory was making his decision, by and large most people said Slow was the most suspicious.  The only person who said they suspected Blackdragonslayer was Mashi, who also said he'd be fine oracling Slow.  Doing things the way gregory did them could be taken either as an attempt to frame BlackDragonSlayer or an attempt to make it not suspicious that he didn't reveal Slow.  I think the latter is more likely than the former given how the two had been linked.

I disagree with Mashi about Slow's most recent post http://www.ninsheetm.us/smf/index.php?topic=4894.msg172380#msg172380 here.  I think it makes Slow seem human.  If he's a wolf, trying to push a late lynch on Mashi is very unlikely to be successful.  There are so many other players who would be much easier lynch targets.

I've had a pretty exhausting day.  For now, I'll safety on Kman/Shadowkirby because I know he's already targeted someone from a chat he, Blackdragonslayer, and I had earlier.  Also a lot of people I've interacted have seemed human, and he's one of the few that's been pretty neutral.  I'll hopefully reevaluate this later.

[vermilionvermin]

I guess it's kind of a semi-safety-ish vote.  I'm not sure if it's good or bad that everyone is seeming human.

[vermilionvermin]

This is the log i'm referring to

22:02   BlackDragonSlayer   I... targeted Vermilionvermin...
22:02   Kman96   why herro vermirrionvermin
22:02   Vermilionvermin   why are people targetting already
22:02   Vermilionvermin   it's the night phase
22:02   BlackDragonSlayer   Not that I'm suspicious or anything... 
22:03   Kman96   kinda like a safety, I guess
22:03   Kman96   in case people forget.
22:03   BlackDragonSlayer   Perfect time to target! Why not!
22:03   BlackDragonSlayer   And, Kman96, you are right. 
22:03   bird   all the cool kids target at night
22:03   Kman96   of course I'm right
22:03   Kman96   lol
22:03      *** Kman96 is now known as CoolKman96
22:03   CoolKman96   Bird's right
22:04   BlackDragonSlayer   Goodbye for now.
22:04      *** BlackDragonSlayer quit (Quit: http://www.mibbit.com ajax IRC Client)

22:05   CoolKman96   um...
22:05   CoolKman96   K
22:05   CoolKman96   so, Verm
22:05   Vermilionvermin   Yes
22:05   CoolKman96   any idea as to the plan of action?
22:05   Vermilionvermin   for night 1?
22:05   Vermilionvermin   hope i don't get wolfed
22:05   CoolKman96   or shalll we be squatters for the phase?
22:05   Vermilionvermin   that is my plan of action
22:05   Vermilionvermin   Actually
22:06   Vermilionvermin   it was a little more complex than that
22:06   Vermilionvermin   it was
22:06   Vermilionvermin   step 1: ensure that people look at the targetting the right way
22:06   Vermilionvermin   then step 2 was make jokes about being the seer or the please
22:06      *** glitchy quit (Quit: http://www.mibbit.com ajax IRC Client)

22:06      *** Maestro joined #twgnsm
22:06   CoolKman96   ugh I KNEW the seer thing was a joke...
22:06   CoolKman96   I was being paranoid 
22:08   Vermilionvermin   Do you think FSM's a wolf?
22:09   CoolKman96   not really. not at this moment...
22:09   CoolKman96   Wait
22:09   CoolKman96   hold on.
22:09   Vermilionvermin   I think he's a wolf.
22:09   Vermilionvermin   He's been to leaderly night 1
22:10   CoolKman96   yeah, now that I've seen it, it does appear he's trying to prepare...for something
22:10   Vermilionvermin   like what?
22:10   CoolKman96   a little overactive, I think?
22:12   Vermilionvermin   I don't know what he's getting at with "Bird, let's say SocialFox dies Night 1. Is it possible that when on Day 1 FSM dies, can he cardflip SocialFox?"
22:12   CoolKman96   so there are no specials in this game, nor items?
22:12   Vermilionvermin   None
22:12   Vermilionvermin   everyone is a special
22:12   CoolKman96   Um
22:12   CoolKman96   K
22:13   CoolKman96   Yah
22:13   Vermilionvermin   who can reveal one other person
22:13   bird   twg: snowflake edition
22:13   Vermilionvermin   when they get lynched
22:13   CoolKman96   I'm a "special" Dodrio.
22:13   CoolKman96   have you SEEN that thing?
22:13   CoolKman96   Lololololol
22:13   CoolKman96   no offense bird, you're so much better than me.
22:14   bird   What
22:14   Vermilionvermin   your dodrio reminded me of this dolan strip: 

he might have targeted kman.  i don't know but i'm feeling tired and need a mental break

[Mashi]

Kman96 is dropping out and receiving a Phantom, so I suppose I'll just sheep vermilionvermin since I trust him and we can at least have time to interrogate SlowPokemon and other suspicious (or inactive) characters.  Though, I have a feeling that we won't luck out and that he'll be a Wolf as in Melancholy, sadly!

Kman96

[blueflower999]

Safety on Dude for now. While I feel that it's odd that BDS wasn't targeted by Gz and Spit was, I really can't see it happening that Spit is the Mater Wolf or BDS was a wolf. It's just too obvious.

[Bird]

On my phone. Are slow and kman tied?

[vermilionvermin]

No.  When Mashi voted slow, that was three on him.  Then we both voted Kman.  So 2 on Kman, 1 on slow

[Bird]

1. Pokemon who is a wolf
2. Pokemon who is a wolf
3. Pokemon who is a wolf
4. Pokemon
5. Pokemon
6. Pokemon
7. Pokemon
8. Pokemon
9. Pokemon
10. Pokemon
11. Pokemon
12. Pokemon
13. Pokemon
14. Pokemon

Every player has the option to "target" another player by sending a PM to me saying who you're targeting. You can change your target at any time, as many times as you want. If you are lynched, the color of your targeted player is revealed to the thread. Wolves know the identities of the red humans. Every day phase there will be a trivia question. Winner gets a picture of a medal.

----------------------------------------------------------

Beginning of Night 1
Beginning of Day 1
Beginning of Night 2
Beginning of Day 2
Beginning of Night 3

----------------------------------------------------------

1. vermilionvermin
2. FSM-Reapr
3. Kman96/shadowkirby
4. Dude [Phantom x1]
5. BlackDragonSlayer
6. Spyro [Phantom x1]
7. SocialFox
8. Bubbles7689
9. blueflower999
10. Mashi
11. spitllama
12. The Boy Who Cried Wolf [Phantom x1]
13. gzgregory
14. SlowPokemon

Kman96/shadowkirby got killed!1111111111111111 Phantoms for everyone!!!!!!!!11111111one!11111

It is now Night 3. Night 3 ends tomorrow, (Sunday) October 14th at 8:00 PM CST.

I had to ask the TWC a question about the game, so I figured it would only be fair that everybody got the same information that Mashi got.

(10:08:42 PM) bird: so the person who was lynched
(10:08:45 PM) bird: was recently replaced
(10:08:54 PM) bird: but new person didn't pick a person to cardflip
(10:09:09 PM) bird: and the old player's cardflip is currently set to a dead player
(10:09:17 PM) Vera: I think you should stick with Old Person's then.

And sorry about the late update! It was Egan's fault.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

8. Bubbles7689

...that information really helps us...

[Dude]

shit, was asleep.
D:

[vermilionvermin]

UGH.  Kman is likely human because of this reveal.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

My current predictions:
1. vermilionvermin: Human... most likely.
2. FSM-Reapr: 99% certain human.
3. Kman96/shadowkirby: Most likely human.
4. Dude: Not enough information... could possibly be a human...

5. BlackDragonSlayer:
6. Spyro: Not enough information.
7. SocialFox: Human. Perhaps?
8. Bubbles7689: Human; almost entirely guaranteed.

9. blueflower999: Not certain...
10. Mashi: Not certain...
11. spitllama: Possibly human; possibly wolf.
12. The Boy Who Cried Wolf: Human... need more information...

13. gzgregory: Ill-fated human or wolf; most likely, wolf.
14. SlowPokemon: I believe, wolf.

Now is the time to start (or, hurry up with ) deducing who is most likely a wolf, and who isn't... we have nearly enough facts, or do we??

[Toby]

Oh shiz, so if you don't vote you get a phantom , didn't know that. Was wondering why "safety votes" were going around. I also wasn"t sure who to vote, probably would have been slowpokemon. I'm not actually too up to date with when the phase ends and stuff. Was asleep when it ended.

[spitllama]

K so now that my trips for fall break are over I can go to chat. 8pm EST tonight?