TWG XXXVIII: Snakes on a Plane

[vermilionvermin]

4. SocialFox:  I think his doctor claim was pretty suspicious and I think he should definitely be considered as a lynching target tomorrow.  Maestro being a not-wolf also gives a little bit more credence to his suspicion of you!

16. Spyro:  I don't like that he doesn't comment on the Maestro lynch at all.  All he does is go after bird and insinuates that he would agree with lynching a newer player, but doesn't substantiate why he wants a newer player lynched.

8. Kman96:  I'm pretty conflicted about you.  I agree with Bird in that saying you're lying would be a bad wolf move, but

For this experimental reason, and this reason ALONE, am i voting Maestro

seems really defensive and weird!  And here's the weird thing:  I agree with a lot of the logic.  The way that it's expressed, however, makes it seem like you're trying to get out of any credit or blame for the Maestro lynch, which I think is more consistent with wolf thinking than human thinking.

3. Bubbles7689:  Bird has a point in that I have no idea whom you suspect even after chatting with you, which is odd and you were the main reason why I suggested that people make suspicion lists.

5. Mr. Saturn:  A lot of the theories as to why Blueflower was wolfed revolve around a lot of the wolf partners being yes men/women.  Inactivity would definitely be a reason to not object to a Blueflower wolfing.  I think Mr. Saturn, Wrydryn, Spyro, and Bubbles in that order are the top four most suspect people for that reason.

10. Wrydryn:  See above.

13. K-NiGhT:  You were mildly active Night 1, but I don't really know how you'd act as a wolf or if you'd make the Blueflower wolfing.  Hard to read.

1. Mashi:  You always seem human.  Pretty much, anyways.  But at the moment I'm feeling you're a little bit less human-seeming than bird, so there you go.

6. Bird:  I think that the more frequently people are suspected with poor reasoning, the less likely they are to be a wolf.  You were unfairly crucified for the Maestro lynch which I think is actually more of a testament to your humanity than anything.  Suspicions are well thought-out and everything. 

14. spitllama:  I'd be pretty shocked if you were a wolf with how hard you fought against the Maestro lynching.  I guess it's possible that you were relying on the cardflip to make you look human.

15. FSM-Reapr:  My thoughts on you haven't really changed since the last time I posted.

9. gzgregory:  I think greg is human because in one chat I had, I asked if anyone had checked when the last time that Wry had been online was.  He knew that it had been since a few days earlier that Wry was online.  That points to the fact that he's looking into this stuff on his own, not because he's being prompted by others.  I can see what Bird's talking about in that wolves might have self-poisoned, but I could also see them going after someone like him who had a reputation for inactivity.

11. Jub3r7:  I could see you making the blueflower wolfing given that last time you were a wolf you killed Slowpokemon first.  However, your play this game indicates that you're not a wolf.  http://www.ninsheetm.us/smf/index.php?topic=4813.msg167403#msg167403 points to a lot of thought going into your hunting rather than just sheeping other people's votes.

2. vermilionvermin:   

[Kman96]

8. Kman96:  I'm pretty conflicted about you.  I agree with Bird in that saying you're lying would be a bad wolf move, but 

For this experimental reason, and this reason ALONE, am i voting Maestro

seems really defensive and weird!  And here's the weird thing:  I agree with a lot of the logic.  The way that it's expressed, however, makes it seem like you're trying to get out of any credit or blame for the Maestro lynch, which I think is more consistent with wolf thinking than human thinking.

At first I was, because I had noticed a few particular players that were extremely adamant about the lynch (Here's looking at you, Bird and Mashi), but unfortunately, those same members were the ones who immediately switched to Spyro, urging everyone else to as well.

As for everyone else, meh.
I'm still slightly suspicious of the whole K-night/gzgreg/Mashi PM mishap, because I never saw this "image" that was apparently shown in the chat, but even then, I think a PM that short could be quickly faked. Especially when it made almost no sense to me.

[Bird]

It's really hard to make judgements in a cardflipping game, since somebody who pushes hard for a human lynching can be a wolf, but somebody who pushes hard against it can also be a wolf. You commented on this with your spitllama write-up, but I'm not convinced. Spitllama has said that he doubted I would vote for anyone other than Maestro. I think that this shows evidence of him believing the lynch was inevitable.

And if a human lynch is inevitable, any reasonable wolf would show hesitance to make them look human later on. But maybe I'm giving spit too much credit.

I'm pretty stunned at socialfox being so high (almost as stunned as gzg being so low, but more on that later). The doctor claim seemed to be something a newer human would believe to be helpful. In fact, another player said that it's a shame he rescinded his claim, since the false claim seemed so beneficial to the humans. Point is, it's easy to see where a human socialfox was coming from with his claim. Him being a wolf would mean that he didn't converse with his partners, did something risky, and then thought of an excellent explanation (very quickly, I might add) after the claim was made. I think that's pretty hard to believe.

Your mention of gzg knowing Wrydryn's whereabouts makes me even more suspicious of him. If Wry was my wolf partner and didn't respond to my PM after a day, I would check to see if he'd been online pretty immediately. A regular human doesn't have nearly as much of an incentive. He's very reasonable in the chat, but, like bubbles, he hasn't had much of an opinion on anyone. Perhaps I'll move him down a few spots on my list once I see a suspicions list from him (or some other meaningful content), but definitely not sooner.

We already talked about Spyro, and maybe I need to rethink Kman, but it's a great list.


---

Kman, regarding the PM stuff. I think that if a wolf was going to fake a PM, they would put some effort into making it believable. The PM gzg shared with us was laughable. It was two words long, and one of them was "augh" or something. It's too silly not to be real, if you ask me!

[FSM-Reapr]

He was blue. Uh-oh. Now we need to find out was he the doctor. Anyone who has healing item, REVEAL YOURSELF!!!

lol if this was a movie here's the dialog:

FSM: OMG this man has been bit by a snake! Is anyone here a doctor!?
Maestro: I am!!!
Everybody: LET'S THROW HIM OFF THE PLANE!!! >
*Maestro gets thrown off*
Everybody: WHAT DID WE DO?!?!?!!!

[Greg]

FSM, Maestro claimed seer before he died.
Here's my suspicion list:

1. Kman: Your manner of talking this game has been really odd. First you say that you may lie, then... well basically everything else you say sounds kinda odd, certainly not like you talked in previous games!
2. Spitllama: You certainly went against the Maestro lynch really adamantly, but he turned out to be human, and besides, the lynch was pretty inevitable with Bird, Mashi and Verm all gunning for Maestro at that point! You're strong as a wolf, I can see you doing this kind of thing to look human.
3. Mr. Saturn: Same reasoning as people have said already: you haven't really done anything and you'd go along with a blueflower wolfing.
4. Wry: Same as above.
5. Bubbles: I've talked to you and yet I don't really know what you think about what's going on, or your opinion about anyone besides Maestro.
6. K-Night: Most of your posts have been joke posts. Dunno.
7. Mashi: Looks human as usual. I've talked to you in the chat and you seemed like you had reasonable suspicions.
8. Bird: Has acted as he normally does as a human, taking control etc, although honestly that doesn't mean too much!
9. Spyro: I think the way he went after Bird rather than Maestro makes him look human. Most wolves, especially inexperienced ones, would go with the lynch if it was on a human!
10. Verm: Mashi and Bird but with a green seering.
11. FSM: You still look human with the whole poisoning plan, and you've seemed reasonable in chat.
12. Jub3r7: You've looked really sincere, and seem to have been putting effort into finding wolves through your... charts and whatnot I guess?
13: SocialFox: I think your claim was a human move considering your inexperience and how early it was in the game.
14. Gzgregory: Duh.

To respond to Bird's allegation that I would have poisoned myself:

I think that if a person claims poisoned to the thread, they should be left alive, seered, and cured of their poison.  That way, if they're green or blue, we can trust that they're human.

People generally listen to Verm! Had I poisoned myself I would have risked being seered and then probably lynched. Obviously that's not possible now but I didn't know that at the time!

[FSM-Reapr]

Oh he did!? :O

nvm then. But still, item holders: reveal yourselves!!!

[Jub3r7]

I told verm in the chat yesterday (the day before?) that I had the other mushroom, I don't know if he remembered.

[Bird]

I'VE HAD IT WITH THESE MOTHERFUCKING SNAKES ON THIS MOTHERFUCKING PLANE!!!!!


Also....I'm a Human.


...WITH A POISONING ITEM!!!!

This came really soon after the PMs were sent out. I'm not sure he would have been so quick if he were a wolf!

Yeah, I was thinking about using it on myself, anyways...Don't know why I thought of doing that, but meh, ok. I'm good for that, too.

Could go either way, but it seems human. I don't know if he would pull a gambit like that as a wolf.

ATTENTION ALL TWGERS:

I'm a human, and I'm going outside the box from now on- I may lie!

But when it matters, I will tell the truth as I can. So be-aware! I'm still trying to get my human game down

Then this happened. I think it could go either way as well, but I think the following posts are more telling.

I was mostly pointing out my change of strategy for being human, because as I said in SBURB, and many other games, "*Also when I'm a human, I don't lie (about anything), so there's something to take note of*"

...sorry about the delay, I was watching Doctor Who :3
Since everyone had been talking about me changing my disposition as a human to make myself more believeable, I guess I better up my trickery as a human rather than relying on the unreliable truth the entire time...had I made the decision prior to starting the game, I would have made the post, but I only made the decision soon before I made the post.

...so, I guess kind of a disadvantage in my case that I did so, but I still feel that I needed to point it out before too long. I'm still going be poisoned, as we discussed, however, so I hope that somewhat calms suspicions.

and

That's why I normally don't...but I've always been told that it was a bad plan. So...change of plan. That's all.


Why am I best wolf as a human? -_-

This come off as genuine. It seems exasperated rather than frustrated, which strikes me as very human.

then who did you PM?? O.o

:O

This is him PM stalking. I'm sure he may do something like this as a wolf, but I think it's more likely to be something he would do as a human.

IM SORREEEEE....

OMG so much has happened today, and ive been unable to post the whole time.

...so i read over the thread, and it seems to me that perhaps, since no one has yet claimed to be the doctor after socialfox claimed,  it could mean either one of two things:

1. they dont trust the idea of claiming their role, so they are staying secret, or
2.its possible that Blueflower was the doctor, and the snakes had a 1/12 chance of snaking (wolfing?) him... out of mere chance.

thats onky what ive observed, but until you took back your claim, foxy, you could have had the wolves going. so, good job on the plan, bad job for taking it back. now we're at square 1 again.

I think that, first of all, the wolves would be more likely to pay attention to the colors of the people they killed. I also think that it's likely he really did believe SocialFox's plan was a good one. After the claim was retracted, there wasn't really any point in supporting it if he were a wolf anyway.

Oh. WOOOOOW.

Way to miss the details, Kman... 
My bad...

Like I said, I screwed up. If you look at my playing style in other human games of mine, I always say that I'm a human and I never tell a lie. (now that I think of it, every time I was a wolf, I never said such a thing) I decided to change that plan a little late into the game, just in case anyone would hold me to the promise I made in other human games, but I guess no one remembered, so...yeah, I F'd up.

More syntactical "genuineness". Sorry for the subjectivity, but it just doesn't seem like things a wolf would say. Especially not Kman.

Shit. I tried taking my vote off BEFORE the phase was supposed to end, but my damn phone wouldn't let me.

That was a shit move, Maestro. I can't believe you did that 

well now we know the wolves have delivered a huge blow into our sides...what's next?

Maestro-gate was largely caused by humans. If he were a wolf, would he refer to it being a blow delivered by "the wolves"? I don't think so.

I think you can make a case for him being a wolf, but I think that it's more plausible for him to be human.

[FSM-Reapr]

A POISONING PLAN:
If Wry or Saturn gets another phantom next day, we should poison one of them with the 2 poisons, and heal who ever has gotten poisoned this night phase. Because I don't think they're gonna suddenly be active. That should leave us 1 extra healing item, in the most likely situation.

Gonna make a list, for fun.

FSM: oh noes I got me

Jub: Ninja'd. There has been only disturbed one mushroom until this Night, that's why: how yesterday? And I got that. But the Brutal has had one mushroom from the beginning. 

Bubbles: Hasn't been nearly as active than in her previous game what kinda makes me suspicious. Bubbles, now would be the time to step up and convince us. (still <3 U)

K-N: I found it mildly suspicious that you disappear after Night 1, maybe you're just waiting the moment to strike against the humans.

Mashi: Agreed, he pushed the lynch a little bit than he should of... It's hard to read him. Just have this feeling. And he suspected me wolf. SO HEZ WUFF  just kidding

GZG & Spyro & Wry & Mr. Saturn: Dunno.

Spit:

2. Spitllama: You're strong as a wolf

*cough* Dunno, you seem human. But hey, everybody does.

Foxy: I believe he made a mistake, and really is the doctor. That's why, human.

Bird: You have convinced me with your reasonable posts.

Verm: Colour speaks.

Kman: Most human to me, even more than Verm seer'd green.

[K-NiGhT]

K-N: I found it mildly suspicious that you disappear after Night 1, maybe you're just waiting the moment to strike against the humans.

I'm kinda grounded and can't get on all the time. Plus I've had to work a lot and study for school. I offered for Dude to take my place.

[FSM-Reapr]

Oh right. Okay then. Sorry.

[Spyro]

Bird, after reading through, I don't think you're a wolf.

Anyway, I got another poison.

[FSM-Reapr]

1st we need to find out who has the real mushroom.

[Mashi]

Kman96 - Bird has given me a few doubts about Kman96, but I'm sticking with him!  Although a few of his posts do seem honest (such as his posts expressing annoyance or exasperation), I feel that they also may be made as a Wolf disappointed in himself/herself for quickly garnering so much suspicion.  I didn't like his post saying that his only reason for voting MaestroUGC was for experimental purposes either.  I also found his post after the Phase ended that said that he intended to change his vote because he didn't want to Insta (yet he wanted to lynch him?) suspicious.  It sounded like he said that he wanted to change his vote to appear Human and, after being questioned to explain, he made up an excuse.
Spyro - I didn't really like his random suspicion against Bird.  But that's about all I've seen from him, so idk.
Mr. Saturn - what do you mean hes playing
Wrydryn - did you really go like three days of the game not knowing your role
FSM-Reapr - He raised a flag for me when he said that he felt Kman96 was more Human than vermilionvermin.  vermilionvermin could be the Master Wolf, sure, but how is a Green seering less convincing than no seering in this case?  Kman96 has done questionable things the entire game, while vermilionvermin has taken many actions in the interest of the Human team.  I don't know whether FSM-Reapr simply made a Human error with his suspicion list, but I'm thinking that he may be trying to defend a Wolf while a cogent post like Bird's was made.  I'll have to see more of him before I make any definitive opinions, though.
Bubbles7689 - She's been very ambivalent despite so much going on and I don't see why not.  However, she was against the MaestroUGC lynch and actually declined to place a vote for an Insta after I asked her to for some while.  Not sure about her either.
K-NiGhT - I'm not sure if he's really done anything aside from make his joke posts.  Are you still being replaced by Dude?
spitllama - I'm putting him in the middle for how strongly he was against the MaestroUGC lynch.  If he only opposed it moderately, I would have thought he was Human, but I feel that his disapproval towards it may have been because he knew MaestroUGC was a Human.  Not really too sure about him.
gzgregory - I feel that he's working hard for the Human team.  He's apparently read past TWGs to have antecedent performances to compare to those of Players in this game.  And apparently, according to vermilionvermin, he looked up the last time Whirr was online.  Although I understand that he could have been a Wolf trying to figure out what happened to his Wolf partner, I think that in this case, gzgregory is simply a Human trying his best.  I would like to see more of him, however, to have more concrete feelings about him.
SocialFox - I concur with Bird in the thought that I don't think that a new Player would be so audacious and reckless as a Wolf to false claim a Role without approval of his/her Partners.  I also don't see why a false claiming Wolf would risk retracting a claim, since it would risk a great deal of suspicion.
Jub3r7 - At first, I had mixed feelings towards Jub3r7.  I didn't make anything of his strong desire of wanting me to believe that he was Human at first (because I felt that he would feel that way whether he was Human or Wolf), but after reading his posts again (the one vermilionvermin posted, in particular), I'm beginning to think that his sentiment is genuine, because of how contemplative he is.
Bird - The way he freaked out in the chat after MaestroUGC claimed Seer essentially removed most of my doubts of him not being Human.  I don't think that such an indignant response is something that he (or nearly anyone, for that matter) could have emulated as a Wolf.
vermilionvermin - I feel that the actions he's taken so far, in addition to his Green seering, make him Human.  His suspicions seem reasonable and he seems to be thinking them through as well.  I can't really think of anything suspicious he's done so far; everything he's doing seems to be for the Human team.
Mashi - [insert witty comment about being a Wolf here]


Also, I just would like to mention, I don't understand where a few of you are finding the idea that the MaestroUGC lynch was inevitable nor how Bird, vermilionvermin, and I were adamant about it.  Simply because we're good Players doesn't mean that you must follow us always.  If you have compelling evidence towards another Player, bring it up!  The primary reason we ended up being MaestroUGC (besides that he duped us and suicided) was because no one else was any more suspicious than him at the time.  Bird, vermilionvermin, and I weren't very confident about his lynch; it was simply the best option we felt we had at the time.  Of course, the only way to find better options is to be active (which sadly seems to be a good deal of the game), so be active and work hard!!!

[FSM-Reapr]

Ok, I'm sorry that I blamed you Jub. I just thought you received the mushroom yesterday when it was still Day. But the time zones for me make it seem that Night 2 started today. Sorry.

I think Jub is human.