TWG XXXVIII: Snakes on a Plane

[Kman96]

Interrogation of me (by Verm) in the chat!

20:50   Kman96   anyone else?
20:50   bird   verm question kman
20:50   bird   Vermilionvermin:
20:50   bird   let him convince you with his words
20:51   Kman96   wait what?
20:51   Vermilionvermin   all right
20:51   Vermilionvermin   why did you vote bird?
20:51   Kman96   because I felt that he was using a similar tactic you used to gain my trust in Trick of the Trade.
20:52   Vermilionvermin   what indicated that?
20:52   Kman96   and because that post about me was a littly TOO flattering.
20:52   Kman96   little*
20:52   Vermilionvermin   were you planning on doing anything when you said you might lie?
20:53   Kman96   although I appreciate the effort to show that I'm a human, I honestly think it might place you (*referring to Bird*) in a position that of an alliance with me, of which is nonexistent.
20:53   Kman96   oh
20:53   Kman96   and no, but LIKE I'VE SAID NUMEROUS TIMES
20:54   Kman96   I wanted to change up my human strategy to a better, workable strategy of which was more legitimate than "Trust me, I'm human!"
20:55   Vermilionvermin   how do you think you've done that?
20:55   Kman96   I wanted it as a disclaimer just in case anyone noted from my previous games as human that I made such a post saying that I won't lie. I wanted this TWG to be different.
20:55   Kman96   and what do you mean?
20:56   Vermilionvermin   what things besides saying that you might be lying have you done to change up your strategy?
(*This is the section where Boingy (Mr. Saturn) left the chat*)
20:57   Kman96   no, actually, I haven't. and surprisingly, I haven't lied at all before OR after making that post.
20:57   Vermilionvermin   All right.
20:57   Vermilionvermin   I think I'm out of questions.

[FSM-Reapr]

Also, can somebody remind me who got the poisons and antidotes each phase? As well as who was poisoned?

Night 1 Poison - Kman
Night 1 Poison - Spyro
Night 1 Antidote FSM
Night 1 Poison Victim - gzg and FSM

[Bird]

1. Wrydryn
2. K-night = Mr. Saturn
4.  Gzgregory
5. Bubbles
6. Mashi
7. Spillama
8. Vermilion
9.  Spyro
10. Jubert
11. Kman
12. Fsm
13. Bird

1-3 = probably wolves
4-7 = maybe wolves
8-13 = probably human

Explanations later

[Bird]

Okay, explanations. I think it's better to look at it as a tiered list, with the tiers specified below the actual list (probably wolves/maybe wolves) since there's not a big differene between the rankings of people in those groups.

So yeah, I think K-night, Wry and Mr. Saturn are wolves. Everybody else seems too human for at least one of them not to be. Wolves being inactive could explain why a person like blueflower999 was wolfed over somebody who appeared more human, such as FSM. I don't think Mr. Saturn is as unintelligent as he's portraying himself (he said whom!), and for a guy who reread the entire thread, he sure is unhelpful. His only accusation of somebody was somebody who I think (at this point anyway) is most likely human. Wrydryn is number 1 for no real reason, but he's dying soon anyway so who cares.

And k-NiGhT doesn't have a lot going in his favor as well. "Obvious wolf is obvious" didn't sound like a joke at all, and I'm not sure he would have taken it back if Verm hadn't posted. He hasn't been very helpful in terms of making suspicion lists either. His excuse can only go so far, and explained inactivity is a reasonable strategy for a wolf. (One time when I was a wolf, I lied about being on a vacation so I wouldn't have to post often in the thread.)

Gzgregory should probably be under bubbles, but I'll talk about him first anyway. I don't think a wolf would poison himself immediately after verm suggested that the seer seer poisoned people. But he suspected Kman, and strikes me as fishy. I'd like to talk to him more about the game! Also he suspects Kman.

I think Bubbles could easily be the fourth wolf of the Wry/K-Night/Saturn team. I don't know if she's paying a lot of attention to the game, but it's kind of odd how she claims not to have formed an opinion on many players. I don't know if this is due to inexperience, but I was weirded out by her calling SocialFox a wolf. Kman thought that Social's strategy seemed particularly human, mashi, verm and I thought that social's strategy seemed particularly human, so it makes me wonder why should would say that. She also suspects Kman.

Mashi and spit are pretty interchangeable in terms of their positions on my list. Maybe spitllama should be a bit higher. He has two things going in his favor though at this point. First, he was very adamant about not lynching Maestro. However, this could have been due to the cardflipping as discussed earlier. Additionally, he didn't vote for anybody else, just safetying which is a really passive way to look human. Also, in the chat, he talked about "i want to squash these suspicions before I go to bed" which had an air of confidence about it. I don't know if a wolf would believe he could remove suspicion so quickly. I believe he also suspected Kman. Yeah, in hindsight he should be above Mashi.

Mashi is a very skilled wolf. Like Verm, it's hard to ever say he seems human, since he tends to act the same way in both roles. I think it's odd how he continues to use "I wouldn't have wolfed blueflower999" as a point in his favor, since I can't really see anybody wolfing blueflower at this point - meaning it could have been anyone. And he seems to be distancing himself from conflict - rather than siding with anyone in an argument, that is. Also he suspected Kman. Tsk.

Verm is a tricky guy, but there's only a 13% chance he's a wolf due to the seering. On top of that, he's been acting really helpful and I think that his reaction to Maestro-gate seemed human. He had no obligation to tell me the information really. And he changed his mind about me (human) and I think Kman. He also would have poisoned either K-Night or Wrydryn, and I think if he were a wolf, at least one of them would have been his partner.

Spyro's humanity really rests solely on the "so you're confessing? It was actually pretty obvious that [Bird] was a wolf." post. I just don't think he would have made that post as a wolf! Is he generally a tricky player when he's a wolf?

Jubert helped us with his mushroom, and has been talking to Mashi a lot. He just comes off as human to me, and I think that he comes off as human to a lot of other players as well. Perhaps he shouldn't be this low. I'll actually probably keep an eye on him, but I don't think he's done really anything overtly suspicious. Another suspicion list would be nice though.

Kman is WACK yo. I made a post dedicated entirely to the reasons I thought he was human, I don't think a lot more needs to be said about him. Unless everybody suspects him still.

FSM - came up with some helpful ideas, immediately announced he had an item, did some PM stalking. Seems like human behavior.

Bird - dats me

[FSM-Reapr]

Mr. Saturn Why? Because (no offense) he hasn't done anything to make me believe he's a human.  But there is a chance he could be a wolf. So this is half-vote, half-safety. Same to Wry. But I'd rather lynch Saturn over Wry, 'Amon(see what I did there), Saturn had a chance to vote BUT HE DIDN'T AND TOOK A PHANTOM! That makes me think he's no use for the human team.

And I suggest that in the next Night, we poison Wry with the both poisons and heal all people who are currently poisoned.

[FSM-Reapr]

OMG THERE ARE SO MANY PEOPLE IN THE CHAT YOU SHOULD COME TOO

[Kman96]

OMG THERE ARE SO MANY PEOPLE IN THE CHAT YOU SHOULD COME TOO

At school= chat blocked

Also, FSM, did you manage to heal yourself after the night 1 plan? you never did report. Or at least, I never saw it.

[FSM-Reapr]

Yes I did, otherwise I'd be dead now.

[Bubbles]

I think Bubbles could easily be the fourth wolf of the Wry/K-Night/Saturn team. I don't know if she's paying a lot of attention to the game, but it's kind of odd how she claims not to have formed an opinion on many players. I don't know if this is due to inexperience, but I was weirded out by her calling SocialFox a wolf. Kman thought that Social's strategy seemed particularly human, mashi, verm and I thought that social's strategy seemed particularly human, so it makes me wonder why should would say that. She also suspects Kman.

To clear things up, no, Im not paying much attention to this game. TWG is awesome, and I actually like it alot more than some other games I've played. This time of year is confusing for me since I move from one house to another and Im starting a new school year. I never said Socialfox was a wolf, I just said that he was one of the people who were the most suspicious to me, and that if I had to lynch someone it would be him. I suspect kman, but mainly for the confusingness of his posts.

[spitllama]

Mr. Saturn for reasons I posted earlier.

[Bird]

Mr. Saturn Why? Because (no offense) he hasn't done anything to make me believe he's a human.  But there is a chance he could be a wolf. So this is half-vote, half-safety. Same to Wry. But I'd rather lynch Saturn over Wry, 'Amon(see what I did there), Saturn had a chance to vote BUT HE DIDN'T AND TOOK A PHANTOM! That makes me think he's no use for the human team.

And I suggest that in the next Night, we poison Wry with the both poisons and heal all people who are currently poisoned.

Verm allegedly poisoned wry last night

[FSM-Reapr]

Oh he did? Then I change my vote to Wrydryn

[Bird]

Also first suspicion list ever woo

1. Mashi- Mashi has been extremely active, as always. I don't really see any reason to suspect him. He asks the right questions, handled the claiming incident well, etc. He was also hesitant to vote Maestro, despite feeling pretty sure of him (idk why though).

2. vermilionvermin- Verm has been playing differently this game. Not poorly, but he's had less of a raise-the-flag-and-charge kind of attitude than usual (though a lot of IRL things can explain this). He's been contributing in the form of defenses and thread posts, but was also one of the few people who wanted to lynch Socialfox (a now-confirmed human). Me thinks suspicious! ... but you were seer'd green so screw dat

3. Bubbles7689- Bubbles was active at the start but now we hardly see her Bubbles you should post more so I can judge you with my abundance of wisdom!!

5. Mr. Saturn- I don't know what your deal is. You show up after the poisoning incident with nothing to say. Post more-- inactivity is always suspicious

6. Bird- I've only played two previous game with Bird and he was not nearly this aggressive in those imo. However, being the first to shift the vote off of Maestro and to Spyro, I can see little reason to suspect him anymore.

8. Kman96- Kman has just been weird this game. Like I said earlier in the thread, he's trying a lot of new things that would probably hurt him as a wolf and as a human. So where does that leave us?

9. gzgregory- You've surprised me with your interest in the game. Suspicion lists, chats, etc. Yaaay. At first I thought you could have self-poisoned yourself like Bird said, but you also didn't seem super concerned about whether or not someone sent in a mushroom for you. I think you would be much more worried about if the human team came through for you if you were a wolf.

10. Wrydryn- Dooooooooood what's up. You should check NSM to see that you're actually in a game right now :l

11. Jub3r7- Jub has actually been.... active this game, kind of. It has actually caught me off guard tbh. He has participated in conversation and was even present for the Spyro switch. Looking back, I think Jub's been inactive in the games that he's been human in. The chat log revealed that Jub actually asked if he should vote Maestro, suggesting that he's human, but the guy also forgot to send in his mushroom antidote (did this end up happening in the end?)! Come on man you had one thing to do.

13. K-NiGhT- Grounded. Inactivity is understandable (though he does get grounded a lot ). I've had inaccurate suspicions of you
this game according to pretty much everyone, so I'm going to just say whatever on this one :-]

14. spitllama- Pretty sure he's a wolf... yep. Definitely.

15. FSM-Reapr- I'm not really concerned about him. He's been active like always and contributing in the same way. Every game I hope that he's a wolf so I can actually see what his play style is xD

16. Spyro- You haven't really been here. You had some off-the-wall vote for Bird and that was pretty much all that was notable! I disagree with Bird in saying you're in the clear. I have higher suspicions for you than the inactive players actually!

Top 6 would be

Saturn
Spyro
Bubbles
Kman
Jub
Wry

Looking at this list again, I think I have to change my vote to spitllama. I asked a bit about him, and apparently he's a really talented wolf and fooled Mashi pretty much an entire game. But his list is what I think gives him away.

I hate to bring up the Saturn/Wrydryn issue again, but I think that it stands out a lot here. Why would two players who are equally useless be so far apart on a player's suspicion list? You could argue that you may not want to lynch one of them since you think he has potential, but Wry's had numerous opportunities to post but never has. And after his willingness to help make a suspicion list, as awful as it was, I think Mr. Saturn came off looking slightly more human than Wrydryn.

But this list was made before all that. And the huge gap is really odd. In addition to that, a lot of the other players I see high on that list seem human as well. Bubbles is seeming more and more human to me, and I've already said that I think Kman and Spyro are human.

Another thing about your write-ups, it looks like you call pretty much every player suspicious. I think the general consensus this game is that most people appear very human which raises another red flag. It seems like you're planting seeds of suspicion for each player, so that when a vote for them rolls around, you'll be able to bandwagon it.

Lo and behold, that's exactly what you just did.

So yeah. I think the wolves are Spit/Wry/K-Night and someone else.

[Bird]

And on a completely unrelated note, I just had the horrifying realization that the wolves may use their mushroom on Wrydryn to make us think he's suspicious. I don't really know what to do about that.

[Bird]

(4:38:25 PM) Vera: Bird, who do you think the Wolves would be if you had to guess now?
(4:38:34 PM) Vera: FSM, you make one too.
(4:38:43 PM) fsm: ou too
(4:38:50 PM) Vera: I just did.
(4:39:06 PM) fsm: That's so unlikely
(4:39:28 PM) Vera: wat
(4:39:33 PM) Vera: How?
(4:40:15 PM) fsm: Mr. Saturn, Whirr, K-NiGhT, spitllama because I doubt Saturn and Wry would both be wolves
(4:40:26 PM) fsm: ok my list:
(4:40:48 PM) Vera: Why can't they both be Wolves?
(4:40:58 PM) Vera: There's no reason to believe either is Human.
(4:41:06 PM) Vera: They've both done absolutely nothing.
(4:41:08 PM) fsm: I doubt the odds
(4:41:22 PM) Vera: Probability isn't a useful tool to find Wolves.
(4:41:43 PM) fsm: well so is not posting
(4:41:56 PM) Vera: It is when everyone else seems Human.
(4:42:36 PM) fsm: btw Vera
(4:42:39 PM) bird: Vera: Spit/K-Night/Wrydryn/_____
(4:43:03 PM) bird: those three names fit together very well
(4:43:13 PM) fsm: have you been talking to Wry at all since this game begun
(4:43:30 PM) Vera: When I've mentioned TWG, he's always been busy.
(4:43:46 PM) fsm: hmm...
(4:43:48 PM) Vera: Or didn't respond.
(4:43:51 PM) Vera: One or the other.
(4:43:57 PM) fsm: HMMM......
(4:44:19 PM) fsm: Spit/K-Night/Wrydryn/GZGreg
(4:44:30 PM) bird: And i don't know about gzgregory either
(4:44:43 PM) bird: I honestly don't know if he would poison himself if there was a risk of being seered immediately after
(4:44:46 PM) bird: unless he were the
(4:44:46 PM) bird: oh
(4:44:49 PM) bird: he could be the master wolf
(4:44:55 PM) bird: they could have just decided to poison whoever the master wolf was
(4:45:07 PM) fsm: DUN DUN DUNNNNNN
(4:45:07 PM) bird: yeah, that could be it