TWG XXXIII: Beat Those Eggs Jimmy!

[Jub3r7]

Yay! guardian and other special, wait for one more removal of vague chance before claiming!!!
although verm says a couple people already claimed so it might be too late.

[SuperFireKirby]

Plus, the chances of ShadowKirby posting are FAR slimmer than those of him being werewolf

[Jub3r7]

He posted already. XD
We're waiting for kman.

[Jub3r7]

*Correction, SlowPokemon, my bad.

[EFitTrainr]

Plus, the chances of ShadowKirby posting are FAR slimmer than those of him being werewolf

Oh reeaaaaarrrryyy?

[spitllama]

Just in case anyone missed it, please note that this phase will be ending one hour earlier, as compared to Night 1.

Also, SFK has made an (epic) story! It's been edited onto the Night 1 post.

[SuperFireKirby]

Oh reeaaaaarrrryyy?

YES.

So we're semi-waiting on SP to claim or anti-claim, but according to Verm, Multiple people have already claimed to him, which kind of renders waiting for SP as useless. Now since multiple people have claimed(going to guess the number is two, the real seer and a wolf) this means we have to trust Verm to make the correct decision on who is the seer and who is fake, though Verm could discuss the dilemma over with the Guardian, unless there is a counter-claim on Guardian as well.

So we have one confirmed human. And once we have the issue with he seers sorted out, Verm should be able to hand us a wolf on a silver platter, possibly garnished with a sprig of rosemary. But for now, we kind of have to play the waiting game.

[K-NiGhT]

Hmm...idk. Safety on skeikah.

[vermilionvermin]

Accidentally closed the tab with my last post in it. 

So I got two seer claims.  I'm going to be as transparent as possible this game in the hopes that it generates discussion.

Seer A claimed to me first.  Seer A asked for suggestions as to whom he/she should seer, but told me that he/she might not be able to be online for the rest of the phase to accommodate those suggestions.  He/she later sent me a PM trying to confirm that I'd gotten his/her claim.  About 6 hours prior to phase end, I told him to seer PERSON C, but he wasn't back before phase ended.  He did, however, get a green result on PERSON D, whom he had originally said he seered.

Later, Seer B claimed.  Seer B said that he/she didn't know who to seer.  I suggested to Seer B that he/she seer PERSON C.  Seer B then told me that PERSON C was red.  Seer B later asked if he was counterclaimed because I hadn't posted the red seering result yet.

Personally, I'm starting to trust one seer over the other, but would like discussion on which Seer you guys would rather trust.  I'd rather not lynch either today, though I do think there's a chance I support the lynch of PERSON C because it helps with information.

[K-NiGhT]

Looking at this, it could go either way.

Seer A could likely be the seer because they said someone was green, which wouldn't really help the wolves at all. Seer B could've just said that some random person was red to get an easy human lynch.

OR

Seer A could be a wolf and told you that one of their wolf partners was green to keep two wolves safe, and Seer B could've easily found a wolf and reported it to you.

Personally, I find the first scenario to be more likely.

[Greg]

Owell.
Probably wasn't going to be active anyway.
Good luck.

[spitllama]

Less than 24 hours till the end of the phase! Apparently there are no comments on Verm's lead?

[K-NiGhT]

Less than 24 hours till the end of the phase! Apparently there are no comments on Verm's lead?

I commented

[spitllama]

Sorry. I should rephrase that. Would anyone like to comment... in addition to K-Night?

[SuperFireKirby]

Looking at this, it could go either way.

Seer A could likely be the seer because they said someone was green, which wouldn't really help the wolves at all. Seer B could've just said that some random person was red to get an easy human lynch.

OR

Seer A could be a wolf and told you that one of their wolf partners was green to keep two wolves safe, and Seer B could've easily found a wolf and reported it to you.

Personally, I find the first scenario to be more likely.

Unless there's something insanely convoluted happening behind the curtain, K-night highlighted what are pretty much the only two possibilities for what may have happened.

Scenario A: Seer A seers someone green. Seer B is wolf and fake seers a random player red.
This is a bit more likely in terms of statistics. There are 7-8 green players(depending on master wolf) compared to only 3-4 red players(once again depending on MW). Since we can rule out Verm, I would guess, thats only a 2-3 in 12 chance versus a 7-8 in 12 chance.

ehhh.... I'm tired, I think I'll finsh this thought in the morning.