TWG XXXIII: Beat Those Eggs Jimmy!

[SuperFireKirby]

Obviously more can be decided upon a seering based on whom is being seer'd. If the player was fairly suspicious to begin with, it is far more plausible that a red seering is accurate than a red seering of someone who has been void of any suspicion.

I'd say reveal seer'd player #2.

[SuperFireKirby]

Re-reading some of the post I missed and the behavior of Shadowkirby strikes me as a little odd.

He's made a total of 3 posts, I believe.

Post one(day 1): "necessary first post",
Post two(day 2): Explaining that he wants to remain in the game
Post three(day 2): Votes for blueflower, giving no explanation or logic behind it. Also supports Maestro as being human without giving any reason behind this either

It seems kind of like the way non-active wolf would try to make it seem like they still contributing to the game.

Maestro's supposed red seering also places him high on the watch list, but his behavior is fitting more of human's. His post encouraging the revealing of the seer'd player on Day 1 is the biggy. No wolf wants to put a fellow wolf in the spotlight(and God forbid they be put in the spotlight themselves). It draws a lot of unwanted attention and suspicion. So why would Maestro encourage Verm to reveal the player if Maestro knew the player was a fellow wolf? If the red seering was true and Maestro was a wolf, he most likely wouldn't. His lack of over defensiveness to the revealed seering also helps his case.

Then there's the matter of the statistical probability that Seer A is more likely to be the real seer on the basis of the first Seering, purely from a statistical standpoint.

Any thoughts on the current situation? Come on guys, we need to discuss!

[vermilionvermin]

Shadowkirby was seered red last night by Seer A.

[EFitTrainr]

And this is where I know verm, or seer A is lying.

[EFitTrainr]

Here's the part where I explaimg everything.

[SuperFireKirby]

Unless Slowpokemon was Werewolf Sonic(Highly unlikely), Verm is confirmed as Werewolf Sonic. Therefore he isn't lying. Seer A, on the other hand, may be. Explain your case, Shadowkirby.

[EFitTrainr]

Verm has, I believe, been lying this entire game. "prove it, shadowkirby!"you say. Well, first off, NONE of the players this round are inexperienced enough to claim seer if they are a wolf. Second of all, the seer should have seered verm before revealing themselves, and then posted to the thread. But, that didnt happen. shiekah, you were quick to vote maestro, and blue has been backing you (and vice versa) this entire game. A vote for shieiah was too risky earlly on, I felt, so I left my vote with Blueflower. And I believe I have just found the final wolf. Verm. vermilionvermin You humans left in the game, I need you to trust me more than ever right now.

[EFitTrainr]

er, not the final wolf, but the third wolf. We have two left, guys, if my theories are correct. Also, my reason for trusting Maestro is pretty much the same as SFK's.

[EFitTrainr]

Verm, Ifj you are werewolf sonic, reveal seer A to the thread. Only then will I remove my vote from you.

[SuperFireKirby]

I don't think one vote on Verm is going to put him in jeopardy, seeing as I doubt anyone with actual sense would vote for him. Is it possible that you could be right and Verm could be the wolf? Sure.  Is it in the least bit likely. No, I think not. By revealing Seer A, if Seer isn't the wolf, the wolves will know exactly who to take out. While the guardian may protect Seer A, what if the Guardian has already been wolfed? This is something that should not be risked.

Shadowkirby's ploy seems like it is coming from either a desperate wolf or a really, really desperate human. Seeing as Seer A seer'd him red, I'm gonna have to go with the evidence.

Shadowkirby

[vermilionvermin]

I think that Shadowkirby's a wolf trying to get me to reveal the person he knows is the seer.  I believe Seer A at this point.  I thought Seer B was more trustworthy at first because of the fact that he got a red seering on Maestro, whom the other seer didn't seer.  Seer A seemed to want me to not influence his result at all, which I thought seemed pretty wolfy. 

That's changed over the past few days.  Seer A has done a lot of things to indicate he's town, such as suggesting to me in a PM that Maestro might still be a wolf, which isn't strategic to suggest if Seer B was the real seer and Maestro was a wolf.

That said, I'm surprised Shadowkirby's taken this route of defense.  The wolves pretty much had to counterclaim something, and it makes sense that they'd counterclaim Seer.  Counterclaiming seer made it difficult for me to trust either Seer A or B, and it wasn't like I could have just had each one seer the other because there's a chance that they had Eggman claim seer. 

There's also a huge hole in his main argument, which is that nobody here is inexperienced enough to counterclaim seer, but someone (me) is inexperienced enough to counterclaim Werewolf Sonic, a potentially seerable role.

Let's just pretend I'm a wolf and I claimed Werewolf Sonic.  Given that everyone but Slow had confirmed that they were not Werewolf Sonic, I would probably have pushed for him to be lynched rather than keeping my vote on Maestro.

[K-NiGhT]

*reads verm's post again*

f***. Stupid occasional dyslexia.

[EFitTrainr]

Well. I'm fucked. Thanks to Verm and his fake red seering!!! 

[Kman96]

I confronted shadowkirby on the issue, and although I want to believe him, I can't...the red seering put it over the top, along with verm's new analysis. With that on the table, I am voting shadowkirby.

Sorry, broski. Its for the best of the human team.

 I think that should be the final wolf, perhaps?

[EFitTrainr]

nope. You just voted for a human, let alone one from your alliance.