TWG XXVII: Trick of the Trade

[Mashi]

1. Wolf Painter - Sends the Host a PM every Night Phase with the name of a Player and a Colour.  For that Night Phase, that Player will be seered that Colour.
2. Wolf
3. Wolf
4. Miller - Human seered Red.  Is told that he is Human.
5. Miller - Human seered Red.  Is told that he is Human.
6. Human
7. Human
8. Human
9. Human
10. Human
11. Human
12. Human

Item 1 - Seering Item
Item 2 - Guarding Item (Cannot be used on self)
Item 3 - Guarding Item (Cannot be used on self)

These 3 Items will be distributed to 3 random Players every Night Phase for the first 3 Night Phases (Wolves can also receive Items).  Afterwards, only Item 1 will be distributed to a random Player every Night Phase.  Items may not be saved to be used at a later Phase.

Night 2 has ended. Jub3r7 was wolfed!  However, he survived!  It is now Day 2.   Day 2 will end on February 5th at 9PM EST/8PM CST/7PM MST/6PM PST/5PM AST.

1. Saint Swooper Dude
2. vermilionvermin
3. blueflower999
4. shadowkirby
5. Wrydryn Bird
6. gzgregory (Phantom x1)
7. SlowPokemon
8. Raymondbl
9. xK-NiGhTx
10. Jub3r7
11. SuperFireKirby (Phantom x1)
12. Kman96 (Phantom x1)

Story will be edited in later.

[Greg]

Welp.

I seered Jub. XD

I guess that's pointless now though, since he's now essentially confirmed.

[Greg]

also yeah jub's green.

[Bird]

 

You're welcome.

[vermilionvermin]

Log with bird

mmastersonabcd: yo bird
Brian Ross: hi
mmastersonabcd: did you guard jub?
Brian Ross: yeah
Brian Ross: that's sort of why i said "you're welcome"!
mmastersonabcd: you can never be sure
Brian Ross: lol
mmastersonabcd: k so who are dem wolves
Brian Ross: idk i haven't read the game yet
Brian Ross: i should probably do that
mmastersonabcd: lol
mmastersonabcd: k then
Brian Ross: i'll do it later
Brian Ross: wait
Brian Ross: who do you think the wolves are
mmastersonabcd: uh
mmastersonabcd: well i thought you were one
mmastersonabcd: because of raymond's trusting of wry
mmastersonabcd: And the fact that a late bandwagon was forced on K-N makes me inclined to think that he's not a wolf
Brian Ross: who is k-n
Brian Ross: oh yeah
Brian Ross: okay
mmastersonabcd: so uh
mmastersonabcd: the people who voted k-n are mildly suspicious
Brian Ross: who all voted k-n?
mmastersonabcd: let me check
mmastersonabcd: blueflower, raymond, and jub
mmastersonabcd: well never mind
mmastersonabcd: blueflower was the first to vote, so i'll give him a pass on that
Brian Ross: doesn't make him not a wolf!!
mmastersonabcd: raymond did so out of self-preservation
mmastersonabcd: and jub's pretty much clear
Brian Ross: who was seered n1?
mmastersonabcd: kman
mmastersonabcd: he was green
Brian Ross: oh and he was green, right?
Brian Ross: okay
mmastersonabcd: raymond got lynched for thinking that he was painted
mmastersonabcd: well that's one reason raymond got lynched
Brian Ross: do you think raymond was a wolf?
mmastersonabcd: i don't know anymore
mmastersonabcd: he seemed wolfy
mmastersonabcd: the person who tried to change my mind on him was jub
Brian Ross: jub could be a wolf
mmastersonabcd: not really
Brian Ross: who had the other guard?
mmastersonabcd: night 1 or night 2?
Brian Ross: night 2
Brian Ross: besides me
mmastersonabcd: night 1 was raymon and k-n
mmastersonabcd: night 2 was dude
mmastersonabcd: and you
Brian Ross: what if dude and jubert are wolves
Brian Ross: wolfed themselves, guarded jubert
Brian Ross: and painted him
Brian Ross: !!!!!!
mmastersonabcd: that's a streeeetch
mmastersonabcd: it'd be dum of them to waste a wolfing like that
Brian Ross: ahh!
Brian Ross: I gotta go
Brian Ross is typing...
Brian Ross: I'll make a post after reading the game
mmastersonabcd: ok
mmastersonabcd: i'll post this log

[Kman96]

Weird...when I read the update at first, I thought Jub had died, then I saw that he was guarded, so I had to re-read it to make sense of it....

Good thing. I almost totally confused myself... :/

Its a good thing hes still here though

[SuperFireKirby]

^Bird's theory is certainly interesting, but I find it unlikely.

Also, why guard Jub? Any special reason, or just cuz he seemed the least wolfy?

Further moar, I DESIRE THE SEERING RESULT

[Kman96]

Gzgregory already said that Jub was seared green.  ^^^^

[Jub3r7]

*seered, also, the fact that I was targeted makes me human as well.
And I kinda seriously doubt I was painted.

Dude and I are not wolf partners, either. :p

[SuperFireKirby]

Gzgregory already said that Jub was seared green.  ^^^^

oh didnt see that. oops.

[SlowPokemon]

WE CANNOT OVERLOOK THIS PERFECTLY POSSIBLE THEORY

Jub, Gzgregory and Bird are wolves, one, let's say Bird, is the painter. Bird gets the guard item, Greg gets the seer item. Bird paints Jub green and also guards him. Gzgregory seers him and sends a pm to mashi telling him to wolf Jub.

I find this unlikely BUT IT IS PLAUSIBLE

[vermilionvermin]

I should probably give my own input on this.

I doubt that Jub and Bird are in cahoots.  But IF they were, a Jub-Bird-Kman group would make the most sense with Kman's green seering.  Gz could also fit in there somewhere, but I DOUBT IT.

I'd say this was a rather inexperienced wolf who did this.  Were I a wolf, I'd stay away from wolfing people like Jub when there are two guard items.  The odds of him being guarded are way too high, and he'd already reported a green seering.

The wolfing of Jub pretty much shot down EVERY wolf pairing I considered.  Kman-Jub would make sense, but self-wolfing doesn't really make a whole lot of sense in this game.  Bird-Raymond doesn't make sense now that Bird stopped the wolfing.

I want to hear more from some people who have been quiet before I make a decision on whom to vote.

[vermilionvermin]

16:18      *** gzgregory joined #twg
16:18   gzgregory   Hi.
16:19   verm   oh hi
16:19   verm   who do you think is a wolf?
16:19   gzgregory   Er.
16:20   verm   Does that mean that you don't suspect anyone or that you suspect me?
16:21   verm   I guess it's best to start analyzing the wolfings.
16:22   gzgregory   Well... last phase my suspicion was kinda on Jub and Kman as a team
16:22   verm   Nobody's /said/ anything suspicious enough
16:22   gzgregory   But obviously they're both confirmed now
16:22   verm   well not kman
16:22   verm   raymond could have been right about kman
16:22   gzgregory   True but he's probably human
16:22   gzgregory   wait yeah that came out wrong
16:23   verm   I'd agree with that
16:24   verm   I know this conversation's been pretty short so far, but I'm starting to suspect that you're human.
16:24   verm   Your responses don't sound like you're making them up.
16:24   gzgregory   ...ok, cool.
16:24   verm   And wolfing Jub really doesn't make sense if you realized the potential Jub-Kman connection.
16:25   gzgregory   Also I guess we could say Bird is probably human?
16:25   verm   I'd say Bird and Jub are 99% human
16:26   verm   we'd obviously have to reconsider if someone else claimed to have guarded Jub, but I don't think someone will.
16:26   verm   It'd be dumb of the wolves to claim to have guarded Jub.
16:26   gzgregory   What about SFK's phantom?
16:26   gzgregory   SFK's a fairly strong player, he wouldn't normally have done something like that
16:27   gzgregory   of course, I got a phantom as well, but whatever ><
16:27   verm   I think the wolfings point to someone who's not paying that much attention to the game.
16:27   gzgregory   Yeah it just narrows down candidates
16:27   gzgregory   That seems plausible
16:28   gzgregory   especially with the guarded wolfing
16:28   verm   Raymond made it kind of obvious that he was the other guardian night 1 when he was pretty much the only person who didn't support the /first/ guardian claiming
16:28   gzgregory   Yeah, anyone paying attention would have gone for him
16:28   verm   And Jub opened himself up to the connection with Kman.
16:29   verm   If I were a wolf I'd have stayed away from Jub and Kman until the end so I could point that out.
16:30   gzgregory   I guess that points to blueflower, dude, and SFK
16:31   verm   It's plausible, but I really really doubt that all three of them are wolves!
16:31   gzgregory   Obviously could also be kman due to inexperience, but seering indicates humanity
16:31   verm   because of newness, Kman could be a wolf too
16:32   gzgregory   oh, and KN
16:32   gzgregory   He thought Kman was seered red
16:32   verm   Raymond could have been a wolf as well
16:33   verm   hold on
16:33   verm   that doesn't make sense
16:33   verm   why would raymond have gone for shadowkirby when he had the second guarding item?
16:33   verm   he could have taken out wry or jub or slow
16:36   gzgregory   Well, I thought that that wolfing might have been an attempt to frame kman
16:36   verm   How would that frame Kman?
16:37   gzgregory   Well, my reasoning was on page 5
16:37   gzgregory   but
16:37   gzgregory   mostly because Shadowkirby stated publicly that he was pressuring kman irl
16:37   gzgregory   Obviously you'd figure Kman would want to get rid of him
16:37   gzgregory   but I figured the other wolves would probably stop him from doing that
16:38   verm   I never really made that connection.  I think Kman might have stayed away from wolfing Shadowkirby if they're friends.
16:38   verm   It /could/ have been an attempt to direct attention away form Kman.
16:39   gzgregory   That's possible.
16:40   gzgregory   If he WAS a wolf, he would probably have been painted too, so yeah
16:40   verm   right.
16:40   verm   That'd mean that Jub was human.
16:40   gzgregory   Well, Jub is almost certainly human anyway
16:41   verm   Really the only plausible scenario where Jub's a wolf is one in which you and Bird are the other wolves.
16:41   verm   And I don't buy that.
16:41   gzgregory   Me neither.
16:41   verm   
16:44   gzgregory   well
16:44   verm   Blueflower would be a good wolf partner for Raymond if he was a wolf.
16:44   gzgregory   Mhm, true.
16:44   verm   If I recall, Blueflower was the first person to begin the late K-N bandwagon.
16:44   gzgregory   Yes he was.
16:45   gzgregory   It was never really a thing though.
16:45   gzgregory   So nobody else saw too much suspicious about K-N at the time
16:45   verm   It nearly got K-N lynched
16:45   gzgregory   What
16:45   verm   I think my vote towards the end was the one that made it not a KiTB
16:46   gzgregory   I had the impression that the entire phase Raymond was the one on the chopping block
16:47   gzgregory   Yeah, KN had 2 votes at most
16:47   gzgregory   then Jub changed his vote because he didn't notice something
16:47   gzgregory   so yeah blueflower was pretty much on his own on this
16:47   verm   I thought kn had three
16:47   verm   maybe i'm wrong
16:47   gzgregory   wait yeah he did
16:47   gzgregory   apparently I'm blind
16:48   gzgregory   well, the third one was Ray
16:48   gzgregory   Sooooo... yeah.
16:48   verm   raymond only had two on him until i voted for him
16:48   verm   oh
16:48   verm   mashi made a mistake on the vote count
16:48   verm   it was 2-2
16:48   gzgregory   oright
16:48   verm   then jub voted
16:49   verm   *then jub changed his vote
16:49   verm   then i voted for raymond
16:49   gzgregory   well
16:49   gzgregory   I don't know if the fact that Blueflower's vote was an outlier makes him a good partner for Ray
16:50   gzgregory   honestly there's not a whole lot to analyze in a game where inactives are suspicious
16:50   verm   right
16:57   verm   Alright, I'm going to post this log.
16:57   verm   I just finished my suspicion list, and I incorporated a lot of this chat in it.

I have a theory which I describe in the chat with gz which is that the wolves aren't paying a whole lot of attention.  It was fairly obvious that Raymond had the guarding item when he was like the only person who was consistently against the guardians claiming.  If the wolves were staying away from the guardians, Raymond would have been a much better wolfing.

Jub's wolfing speaks to the fact that the wolves weren't aware of a potential Jub-Kman wolf duo in which Jub lied about Kman's color to keep him alive.  Either way, it's pretty safe to say that IF Jub's a wolf, Kman is too.  If Jub were a wolf, he could very easily have lied about someone's color to get them lynched.

S-S-S-Suspicion List!

3. blueflower999 - Inactive

1. Saint Swooper Dude - Inactive

11. SuperFireKirby - Most active of these three, but less active than average.


12.  Kman96 - Raymond could be right about him being painted green.  He also might not have made the connections that I talked about earlier.  My experience from Sauce is Pretty Coll tells me that wolves often paint themselves green as opposed to painting others red, especially early in the game.

9. xK-NiGhTx - He could fit in with the above group, but generally when people begin to bandwagon on someone late in the phase, that person isn't a wolf, especially when he's voted for fitting a generic inactive stereotype.

7. SlowPokemon - Seems to be paying attention to the thread and probably noticed the connections that I discussed in the chat with Greg.



6. gzgregory  - He's acting really human-ish in this conversation I'm having that I'll post when I finish.  We should keep an eye on a potential gz-Bird-Jub group in the future, but it's a streeeeeetch.


5. Wrydryn Bird - It'd be dumb of him to block his own wolfing.  He also seemed like a lazy human when I chatted with him earlier.

10. Jub3r7 - It would be dumb of him to wolf himself.  There's a potential for Jub and Bird to be wolves together, but I REALLY REALLY doubt it.  If Jub were a wolf, he could easily have said that Kman was red and nobody could stop the lynch train.  We should keep a watch out for Jub-Bird-gz as wolves, but I doubt it.


2. vermilionvermin - 

The breaks set apart levels of suspicion.

[Greg]

For reasons above, Dude, although this is a semi-safety.

[vermilionvermin]

I'd prefer not to end the phase with two votes.