TWG XXV: Minesweeper

[Winter]

SO we've got two situations, either:

1. Wry was a wolf who got wolfed and Spitllama, or

2. Spitllama is a wolf and Wry is human.

Next night phase I'll know for sure but for now I'll change back to No Vote.

Can I get clarification on your incomplete sentence for #1 there?

[Winter]

the 'and' in that sentence makes it confusing, sorry.

[K-NiGhT]

My sincerest apologies...i totally forgot i signed up. Also, i'm obviously new at this, so i was wondering if we just vote on this thread? My bad. Sorry for my uneducatedness :O

[SuperFireKirby]

SO we've got two situations, either:

1. Wry was a wolf who got wolfed and Spitllama, or

2. Spitllama is a wolf and Wry is human.

Next night phase I'll know for sure but for now I'll change back to No Vote.

oops, "and Spitllama is human" is what is should have said

[Winter]

place your vote in bold on this thread.

[K-NiGhT]

thank you, winter.

[Winter]

Regardless, what Wry said about discussing that in IRC with me is true. He told me to wait until the day phase when he released the information before I discussed it with anyone. *shrug*

[K-NiGhT]

hm...i'm thinking...it hurts my brain...i think i may vote for Spitllama

[Greg]

I'll confirm that I had talked to Spit before... and he did include me in that PM. If you ask me, though, the PM could be interpreted to say that Spit said to FIND the mines, not that he WAS one (although the wording was pretty terrible).

I need more time to think about this... changing to no vote.

[vermilionvermin]

I'm not buying it, Spitllama.   

I'm voting gz because I highly doubt that Wry (or anyone, for that matter) would wolf himself.  We know that Wry was actively PM'ing during the Night phase.  That means that, if he's a wolf, his group killed someone.  That someone must have been Wry.  Given that we have a Psychic who will know whether or not a wolf is dead, he'll lynch one, maybe two humans.

Now, if we assume that Wry didn't wolf himself, we can reach the conclusion that he's telling the truth.  And Spitllama's defense for the PM is certainly flawed.

1.  His first point denies that you sent any such message, but your third acknowledges that he sent a message to Popo, Gz, and Wry.  That's a contradiction, and one which makes Spitllama look wolfy.  He also asks why SFK trusts Wry so much.  Spitllama's clearly grasping for any sort of way he can get out of this lynch.  He's trying to both say that he didn't send the PM and say that he did but that the PM was sent for reasons other than that Spit and Gz are wolf partners.

2.  Spitllama's second point is that he would never send a PM admitting that he was the mine.  That's true.  But that's not what we're talking about.  Wry's PM to SFK only says that Spitllama sent a message to Wry, Popo, and Spitllama. 

3.  Spitllama's third point definitely makes me raise an eyebrow.  LET'S GO TO STATISTICS:

• There was a 1/4 chance that Spitllama, from his point of view, was in the all-human group.  If that's the case, then he adds one of the other eight unconfirmed players to his "alliance".
• If he's in that all-human group, then four of those eight unconfirmed players are wolves.
• That means that there's a 50/50 chance gz was a wolf.
• Put this all together, and there's a 7/8 chance Spitllama's alliance had 1 or more wolves in it.

Needless to say, don't think he was that shortsighted.  Fun fact:  Picking a random group of three people and making an alliance with them has a better chance of having no wolves than doing what Spitllama did.  1/6 > 1/8

Not to mention that, even if he managed to assemble an alliance, it wouldn't be able to actually do anything other than possibly vote together and never vote off one of its members (which only a wolf would want).  Given that we already have an alliance, assembling a random group of four seems unnecessary. 

What makes much more sense would be that Spitllama made a mistake and added Gz, his wolf partner, to the "To" list of his PM rather than the "BCC" list.

The text of it doesn't matter much to me because I don't think Spitllama thought that all three people in his group and Gz were all wolves together.  However, it'd probably be good if someone were to copy/paste the text of it here.

[Winter]

Well then. I'd say the math is almost unnecessary, besides some being wrong, it doesn't change the facts. That officially changes my vote to Spitllama

[Greg]

Whoa, hold on a minute here.

I feel like I'm being framed here or something, Spit (although really badly since you're going down too) but there was only one wolfing last phase. I was online on more than one occasion last phase. Heck, I was on at pretty much the moment the phase ended (my first vote was posted several minutes after, and Dude can confirm I was in the chat). It wouldn't make any sense for me or my team to just miss a wolfing like that if I was a wolf.
As for spit, as far as I can tell he was online once during the night phase to send that incriminating PM and to post 'not psychic'.

The text of it doesn't matter much to me because I don't think Spitllama thought that all three people in his group and Gz were all wolves together.  However, it'd probably be good if someone were to copy/paste the text of it here.

Let's do this mines. Alliance (with lots of communication) starts now!

[davy]

I was online on more than one occasion last phase. Heck, I was on at pretty much the moment the phase ended (my first vote was posted several minutes after, and Dude can confirm I was in the chat). It wouldn't make any sense for me or my team to just miss a wolfing like that if I was a wolf.

If the wolf group containing spit and you have wolfed, than there still could be an inactive group of wolfs.

[Wrydryn]

Welp, it was an honor to be wolfed first and I was kinda expecting it.. Remember what the wolfing might carry along with it, a certain rule perchance?

I'd also love to give my two cents but rules are rules. I'm glad my PM stirred up something so I was able to do something before/while I died.

Good luck everyone!

[blueflower999]

I'm going to change my vote to Popo, becaue believe it or not, he actually TOLD me that he was  the mine, and at the time, he thought the mine was something different from the wolf! In fact, he told me he was the Protective Mine, and he didn't know that he was the wolf.