TWG XXIV: Sauce Is Pretty Coll

[vermilionvermin]

NOBODY's talking and this is a pretty critical juncture in the game.  This is the PM I sent to SFK.  Talk about it if you'd like, or post your own!

This goes in Comic Sans because this is the best suspicion list ever:

1.   Bird:  5 reasons he's a wolf.

a.   He was the one who started the "let's lynch Spit instead of Dude" movement.  It's looking like Dude was probably a wolf, so that raises my suspicion.

b.   He generally doesn't bandwagon and he is bandwagoning.

c.   There's a situation I described earlier in which he did something similar to what happened on Night 1 with the traitor claiming.  In that game, a person named Fawful Koopa was the seer, but he refused to claim publicly.  In order to get him to do so, Bird suggested that I claim to be the seer publicly.  As a result, I did so, and I ended up getting vigi'd for it.  This is eerily reminiscent of that game because he came up with the idea but didn't implement it.  In the postgame of that game, he revealed that HAD HE BEEN A HUMAN, he would have gone through with that plan himself.  He didn't because he was a wolf.

d.   He's the only one left who fits the criteria of "smart enough to paint verm".

e.   He's a strong player who's STILL ALIVE.  There's really no reason he hasn't been wolfed yet.  People like Shadowkirby shouldn't have been wolfed instead of him.

2.   Jub:  Depends on whether or not he's a special.  I'm pretty sure he is one because SFK really didn't address the stuff against him but says he's human.  I'm going to keep him high on my suspicion list for now so as not to raise the wolf/wolves' suspicion.  He seemed off in that chat I keep on mentioning, and there's another one of his posts in which he hints at the fact that he knows that Dude is the brutal human.  He'd only know that if he were a wolf and Dude weren't his partner.  This could all be explained if he were in the alliance with SFK.

3.   Spitllama:  Probably responded worse than Jub to my reaction test.  Bird says that he doesn't seem to understand the whole thing with the roles, but, after reading that chatlog, I'm not so sure.  He very well could be feigning a lack of knowledge of the roles.  I mean, they're in the very first post of the game in bright and shiny colors!  Inactivity and lack of knowledge of the rules are probably the best way for a new wolf to survive.

4.   Davy:  I think he's probz human.  That's the sense I've been getting from most people too.

5.   SFK:  Given that the traitor's dead and he was wolfed night 1, he's almost a confirmed human.  Unless the wolves came up with some ridiculously risky plan of wolfing one of their own Night 1, I think he's human!

6.   Verm:  Aww yee.

Things have changed since when I sent this PM.  I wasn't planning on sharing the stuff with Jub but by now I think we need activity and this is the best way to generate it.

[Bird]

Might as well respond. I'll use Trebuchet MS, the font to rule them all.

a. Yeah, I didn't really expect this to come back and bite me the way it did. It's definitely something that Dude's wolf partner would do. But it's definitely something that a logical human would do also. Think about it - we're lynching a player who is inactive. But he is going to start being active as soon as he comes back from his vacation. Wouldn't the reasonable thing to do be to lynch a different inactive player? Those were my thoughts anyway, and apparently everybody though it was a good idea at the time. It's really a pretty unfortunate coincidence for me.

b. I don't know why this is being used as evidence to why I'm a wolf. Whenever I'm a wolf or a human on the other forum, I never bandwagon. But when I do it here, I'm automatically a wolf? I think that if I were a wolf, I would be careful not to bandwagon, since it draws unnecessary suspicion to me. And the reasons why I was bandwagoning at all have already been explained (I agree with the previous voter's reasoning, laziness, silliness, etc.). Maybe some other wolves bandwagon all the time, but you know that I don't!

c. I don't remember what happened that clearly, but I feel like you volunteered for the job of claiming traitor. And one of us was going to have to be the person who didn't claim, and it seems like another unfortunate coincidence that it was me.

d. Says who? I think that there are still a lot of players left in this game who would paint you (at least 3). On top of that, you could just be the brutal human. Or a wolf.

e. This one is easy. Night one the wolf seers shadowkirby and wolfs SFK since SFK is considered to be a strong player, and most people won't be able to draw a lot of information from that kill. Shadowkirby ends up being blue, so night 2, Shadowkirby is killed and davy is seered. Davy is seered blue so he gets killed night 3. That's just one of many explanations as to why I haven't been killed. Another explanation is that, since people have been suspicious of me the entire game, there wasn't really a need to kill me. And your argument also applies to you and Jub3r7, so there's that.

So yeah. SFK hasn't sent me my defense of myself yet, so I'll probably do that tomorrow. I don't know if he's even going to show up, so hopefully the people who aren't Verm and I start talking.

[vermilionvermin]

Safety on Spitllama because I don't know who to vote.

[Bird]

Sent a PM to SFK asking him to post, but this is getting ridiculous.

[SuperFireKirby]

Shit. Sorry guys, wasn't able to get to a computer yesterday. Anyways, Bird has been seer'd Red.

[Bird]

I'm either the brutal human, or was painted by the last wolf. Either way, the game won't end if I'm lynched. And thanks for not messaging me back, SFK (or reading the thread, apparently). You're a real pal.

Anyway, the seer should reveal himself because he's dying next night phase no matter what. (Last night phase, Davy was wolfed, and somebody else was shaman'd, and it was obvious that neither Verm, SFK or I was the Hunter. That means that either spitllama or Jub3r7 was shaman'd. If one of them came back blue, he'll be wolfed, and if one came back green, the other will be wolfed.) Either that, or we'll win on this phase and it won't matter anyway. And if the guardian is alive, as vermilionvermin said, he should reveal himself as well. The humans won't have a good idea of who to lynch until that information is made public, and I don't trust SFK to make the decision on his own considering he doesn't even read the thread. And really, at this point there is no reason to hide it anymore.

[vermilionvermin]

Last night phase, Davy was wolfed, and somebody else was shaman'd

The shaman is alive?  Then that means that

I'm either the brutal human, or was painted by the last wolf

the last wolf didn't paint you.

I'd say you're most likely to be the wolf regardless of the seering.  And hell, I'd trust you more than most to make the final decision if you are, in fact, the brutal human.  You've got a 50/50 shot and are probably the most experienced one here, Bird.

I suggest that the hunter claim only to Bird.  If he's the brutal human, he needs to know.  If he's the last wolf, the identity of the hunter is irrelevant.  If he has a partner, the game's over anyways.

[Bird]

Well whatever. I'm confident I'll be able to prove my humanity anyway. I'll try and post pretty early tomorrow, so don't insta me by then.

It would really be nice to know who the specials are though, so if I die and the game doesn't end, my suspicions will be more reliable.

[vermilionvermin]

Hey guys I thought of a better plan.  Lynch Spitllama or jub, whichever one isn't the hunter, today.  Then tomorrow, we lynch bird.  The only way this plan could possibly backfire is if the last wolf HAPPENS to be the painter and he painted bird red.  Even so, we've got a 50/50 chance of lynching the wolf today in the unlikely circumstance that Bird was a normal human painted red.

If Bird is the brutal, he will kill the wolf as opposed to the confirmed human when we lynch him tomorrow.

If he's the wolf then we will win when we lynch him.

Thoughts?

[Jub3r7]

bird because sfk is a confirmed human, spitllama is the seer, and I'm the guardian.

Confirm this, spit or SFK, and let's finish the game. XD


Also I was just ninja'd by verm and I think that's a terrible idea. (I haven't actually read your post yet.)

[Bird]

preparing post don't insta yet

[Bird]

Skimmers: Please Read
Apologies in advance for the wall of text, but this is likely to be my last post, so I want to make it count. Really, just read it.

SFK isn't a wolf, because he was wolfed night 1.
Jub3r7 isn't a wolf, because he's the Guardian.
spitllama isn't a wolf, because he's the Hunter.
I'm not a wolf, because my PM said so.

There are five players left. If I'm a painted human (and I suspect that I am), I'll die and there will be 3 humans and one wolf left. Then a player will be wolfed, leaving two humans and a wolf. It should be pretty obvious who the wolf is at that point. Alternatively, I am the brutal human, and I'll opt to kill verm, who in my eyes is the only possible wolf. Either way the humans win. So me dying is actually not that big of a deal. However... something seems amiss...

If all the claims are to be believed, the only person (in my eyes) who could possibly be the wolf is vermilionvermin. But that doesn't add up.

If he was the wolf shaman, how has he not killed a blue player by now, especially considering how he was going on about Jub3r7 acting like a special. And if he was the wolf painter, why did he not paint himself green after claiming traitor? And how are the guardian and seer still alive anyway? Do you know what the chances of that are? INCREDIBLY FREAKING SLIM. This math is pretty loose, but a rough estimation shows a 10% chance of that happening. And that's if the wolves aren't making educated guesses and are just shooting randomly. I'm worried something less-than-excellent is happening in the alliance. I would like to ask that the alliance members make absolutely sure that none of the other alliance members are wolves. Ensure that the claims are legitimate. If the guardian claimed to SFK before he was wolfed, that means that SFK could be a wolf. Things like that.

I'm going to set my "brutal" on verminvermilion, but I would still like not to be lynched. If the game doesn't end here, and you're all sure that nothing sinister is occurring in the alliance, you'll know who to lynch.

And as a fun last argument to my humanity... if I was a wolf at this point, it would be impossible for me to win. I'm about to be lynched, and even if I wasn't, there is only one other non-confirmed human who could be lynched. Even if they were, the game would continue and I would just be lynched in the following day phase! Essentially, if I am a wolf, there is no way for me to win. The game would basically be over. So why am I bothering with this. I'm not going to win no matter what, isn't all this arguing pointless for me?

Answer: yes. I have presented reasonable defenses for all my actions, and have been helpful this entire game. I've been requesting phase extensions and urging people to discuss their suspicions. I've been voting constantly, pressuring many people and then reconsidering my stance on them. If you don't believe that the big things I've done indicate that I'm human, look at the little things. If you guys lynch me because you truly believe I am a wolf, then I don't know what to say. That sounds like a problem with TWG on NSM rather than a problem with me, because I've done everything in my power to show that I really am human. If you still think otherwise, you should probably stop playing TWG with your eyes closed.

vermilionvermin

[Bird]

Just kidding. I really wish I could have ended with that dramatic note, but I had a way more important thought.

If I, presumably the brutal human, am lynched, and the wolf, presumably vermilionvermin, fails to vote for me, then the wolf wins (since a random human will be brutal'd and a wolfing will occur in the following night phase, bringing the ration to 1:1).

So what's it going to be verm? Are you going to put your money where your mouth is, or are we going to have to vote for you?

[vermilionvermin]

I'm hesitant to say that Jub and Spitllama are in an alliance given that Spitllama was one of the people who nearly insta'd Jub.  But if it's the case, then Bird must be the last wolf.

[spitllama]

Yes I'll confirm I'm the seer. I've had my suspicions of Jub, but Bird has been seer'd red.