TWG XXIII: Manhunt

[SuperFireKirby]

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU. GO DIE YOU STOOPID WOLF. I HATE YOU

[davy]

Thanks to Jub I'm proved to be human, because if I was the wolf I would have voted Wydryn so that he would be inta'd and than I would have won.

But since I'm not voting him, I'm not a wolf.

And I want to thank the wolf for wolfing SFK because I was really suspecting him, and the chance would be high that I would have voted for him.

So now that I am clearly human please don't try voting me, because than I'll think you're a wolf.

Now let's see, what information do I have of the remaining players...

Wydryn:

At Blueflower's death he hadn't posted anything. If he's a wolf, he just wolfed without making a post. Possilble reasons why he wolfed blueflower (if he is a wolf) are allready on this topic so I'm not going to repeat them.
If he is a human, he was just busy and didn't have the chance to be at twg.

Sorry I haven't done anything yet, I haven't been on the past few days and just saw this, glad I made it in time before I got a phantom.

Here he's saying that he's inactive, but was glad that he made it in time before he got a phantom. If he's speaking the truth, he's a human, if he's a wolf, he lies.

If the wolf has an understanding of the game then they're most likely to wolf the more experienced players. However if the experienced players don't get wolfed then they're more likely to be a wolf since they obviously cannot be wolfed if they are the wolf.

Although in turn if said experienced players are clever then they can use the rule to their advantage by obvious reasons.

In case I can't make it for a vote, safety on Davy

Dude safety'd on me


Also to point out, SFK did point out the rule. Not sure if this is for public knowledge or to steer us into thinking backwards.

Here he's just explainig the manti rule, because he had nothing better to do (I guess) than says experienced players could take advantage of the rule. Than he safeties me, and says something about SFK trying to steer us into thinking backwards or something like that, which isn't really importent anymore since SFK is death.

Erm, what


Also my previous and possible future inactivity is pretty much based on a new term with new classes and events this week. So I might not have time to be on.


I'll make another post when the time is right to mention it.

He questions why I say he's not suspecious but that I think he's more suspecious than Jub, than explains his inactivity, and says he will post when the time is right.

I still don't really think he's suspecious, but I also can't really judge him.


Jub:

A game with only six people in it. :O

No but really, don't get any phantoms. With our number of players so limited, a multitude of phantoms would screw us over.
There's a chance that we'll make a mistake, but we'll be able to get back up again as long as we don't have the inactivity of ourselves and/or others weighing us down.

In the last game, I procrastinated on voting anyone until the end of the phase....
If you do this, we can't look at your opinion to see if you make a good point or if you need to be corrected.


To sum it up, don't be inactive, unless your purpose is to hinder our progress of identifying the wolf.

manti rule in which experienced players are wolfed first, and are suspected of being a wolf if they aren't wolfed?
How does this apply?

In the beginning, he's just trying to help and to get known what the manti rule is.

Safety on Dude for now.

I have my suspicions but not enough evidence to support them yet; I'll list them here now just to get the conversation going.
1. Davy's post seemed overdramatic, as if he targeted blueflower just so that he could claim that someone was trying to frame him.
2. Dude had a grudge against raymond (Not surprisingly) and blueflower is associated with raymond; this might be nothing, but then his first reaction to blueflower's wolfing after the night phase was this: Discuss??!!!!

SFK has provided various possibilities for blueflower's wolfing while wry has attempted to analyze SFK's reasoning behind this; there's not much reason to suspect them yet.

Here he makes a good point against me and a not so good one about Dude (but he couldn't have known the grudge was allready over) and than complains about wry havn't analyzed SFK's reasoning (and I think he has the right to).

At the moment SFK votes for Dude, with 15 minutes left, he decides to leave his vote where it is, or he hadn't seen SFK's post. I really want to know why you didn't removed your vote, 'cause you're not using the safety the way you should use it.

Oh yeah, this guy who isn't worth talking about insulted Dude and he left about the same time that a few new people showed up, including blueflower, and raymond and blueflower seemed to know each other.
But that's been resolved since then because blueflower only met raymond through email; I was thinking that Dude might've still associated them and targeted blueflower because of it, but apparently not. :I

Anyways I have to go to bed RIGHT NOW; if I'm caught awake then I'm screwed but bleh.
And after rereading davy's posts I've discerned that he's human which leaves Wry to be the wolf.

Explains the 'grudge of Dude' and than does something completely stupid if he's a human.

He tells he completely thinks I'm a human and votes for Wry. Seriously Jub, that's the easiest way to lose except for voting for yourself. At that moment the chance of me being a wolf was equilly high to me being a human, and if I was the wolf you would have lost thanks to that action.

If you are a wolf, you're attacking the most exprerienced player and tries to make the less experienced bandwagon with you.

I usually would go for the last theory, but you have more often completely trusted a player without really having a reason (SFK in last game, Mashi in mind games).

So that last thing makes you more suspecious than Wry, but you have enough time to convince me otherwise.

Both of you, please be on IRC today or tomorrow before 5:00 pm est. And PM me with everything you got.

And Mashi, I know I shouldn't ask this (but I can at least try), but can you lengthen the day phase? I'm afraid I cannot speak to the other players if you don't.

[Jub3r7]

Sorry I haven't done anything yet, I haven't been on the past few days and just saw this, glad I made it in time before I got a phantom.

Explanation of inactivity.

If the wolf has an understanding of the game then they're most likely to wolf the more experienced players. However if the experienced players don't get wolfed then they're more likely to be a wolf since they obviously cannot be wolfed if they are the wolf.

Although in turn if said experienced players are clever then they can use the rule to their advantage by obvious reasons.

In case I can't make it for a vote, safety on Davy

Dude safety'd on me


Also to point out, SFK did point out the rule. Not sure if this is for public knowledge or to steer us into thinking backwards.

Explanation of possible wolf motives, which includes directing our attention to "experienced players", being sad about a vote on him, then directing our attention to SFK, an experienced player.
Oh wait. He did it twice.
SFK was a threat to wry, and since he didn't die during the day phase, he was killed during the second night phase.
Killing blueflower during the first night phase was probably a ruse to make us look in the wrong direction.

Erm, what


Also my previous and possible future inactivity is pretty much based on a new term with new classes and events this week. So I might not have time to be on.


I'll make another post when the time is right to mention it.

Explanation of future inactivity.

[Jub3r7]

Oh no, davy left the irc! I hope you can read my post before you go to bed! D:

[Jub3r7]

Davy wants me to post the chat:

=-=   User mode for Jub3r7 is now +r
   *NickServ*   Password accepted - you are now recognized.
   -->|   NSMGuest74 (~NSMGuest7@shacops-59520C89.adsl.scarlet.nl) has joined #twg
   =-=   NSMGuest74 is now known as davy
   <davy>   hi jub
   <Jub3r7>   Hello, perfect timing
   <Jub3r7>   I got here just a minute ago.
   <davy>   I just returned from atletics training
   <Jub3r7>   Interrogate me, I have nothing to hide.
   <Jub3r7>   I just returned from school.
   <Jub3r7>   Okay, to address your first question.
   <davy>   Why did you kept your vote on Dude when he was being lynched?
   <Jub3r7>   At the moment SFK votes for Dude, with 15 minutes left, he decides to leave his vote where it is, or he hadn't seen SFK's post. I really want to know why you didn't removed your vote, 'cause you're not using the safety the way you should use it.
   <Jub3r7>   To quote you
   <Jub3r7>   To be honest, yes, I did see his vote.
   <davy>   so
   <Jub3r7>   There was no evidence on anybody, not even SFK;
   <davy>   You had some pretty good evidence against me
   <Jub3r7>   And you had very good evidence to defend yourself with.
   <davy>   my sinterklaas thing?
   <Jub3r7>   Er, hang on
   <Jub3r7>   And my post seemed overdramatic because we lost the last game due to a very low activity, and just what SFK tries to do I tried to create some conversation so that we have some leads.
   <davy>   ok
   <Jub3r7>   And the way your post analyzes people
   <Jub3r7>   When you're a wolf analyzing people your posts tend to suggest possibilities, while you
   <davy>   So you just kept your vote cause you didn't want to KiaB yourself
   <Jub3r7>   It feels like you're thinking them out yourself and not just presenting ideas for other people to think about.
   <Jub3r7>   Well, partially.
   <Jub3r7>   Also because SFK had a reason for voting Dude;
   <davy>   he didn't had a reason
   <Jub3r7>   If the person who was lynched was decided by randomness, there would be less of a chance
   <Jub3r7>   Of getting the wrong person
   <Jub3r7>   wait what?
   <davy>   he just used gut instinct
   <Jub3r7>   I was a little upset that he didn't safety me because it would have completed a triangle of safeties
   <Jub3r7>   XD
   <davy>   that would have been cool
   <davy>   although my vote wasn't a safety
   <davy>   I really suspected SFK
   <davy>   well, a little
   <Jub3r7>   But then he was wolfed, so apparently not. :/
   <davy>   I'm so glad the wolf chosed him
   <Jub3r7>   And I sort of suspected Dude, too, so I just went with SFK's vote.
   <davy>   So you made a half-safety
   <Jub3r7>   It became a half-safety after SFK voted, I suppose. :p
   <Jub3r7>   Anyways, you had more questions
   <davy>   (OOC: how do you qoute from IRC?)
   <Jub3r7>   Wait, we're in character??
   <Jub3r7>   I copy and paste.
   <Jub3r7>   "If you are a wolf, you're attacking the most exprerienced player and tries to make the less experienced bandwagon with you."
   <davy>   No I didn't knew who I had to say that
   <davy>   so i just used OOC
   <Jub3r7>   The reason I voted wry was because of process of elimination.
   <davy>   plz explain
   <Jub3r7>   At the beginning, with your over dramatic post I wasn't really sure of you.
   <Jub3r7>   Then your defense post and every analyzation post after that just pointed more and more towards you being human.
   <Jub3r7>   And also
   <davy>   but you should at least give him the chance to defend himself
   <Jub3r7>   Defend himself from process of elimination?
   <Jub3r7>   
   <davy>   No, defend himself so that you think he's a human to and you don't know who to vote.
   <davy>   But how can I quote?
   <Jub3r7>   I told you, copy and paste
   <davy>   thanks
   <Jub3r7>   davy> No, defend himself so that you think he's a human to and you don't know who to vote.
   <Jub3r7>   <davy> But how can I quote?
   <Jub3r7>   <Jub3r7> I told you, copy and paste
   <Jub3r7>   <davy> thanks
   <davy>   I see
   <Jub3r7>   And plus your most recent post;
   <davy>   does that work in the topic too?
   <Jub3r7>   If you had been a wolf and I made the wrong decision, the game would be over now.
   <Jub3r7>   Yes.
   <davy>   I mean copying from IRC to the topic
   <davy>   That's true, but you shouldn't have taken the risk
   <davy>   (that is, if you're not a wolf)
   <Jub3r7>   Copy and paste into the topic
   <Jub3r7>   And if I was a wolf I wouldn't take the risk.
   <Jub3r7>   As a wolf, I would wait for the chance to bandwagon on either you or wry's vote.
   <Jub3r7>   But in this situation, I'm not a wolf.
   <davy>   And hoping wry and I don't vote for you together
   <davy>   before we vote eachother
   <Jub3r7>   I actually wasn't thinking about that at all. :/
   <Jub3r7>   I was like
   <Jub3r7>   "okay, davy's human, that leaves wry to be the wolf."
   <Jub3r7>   "we vote him and humans win. hurray."
   <Jub3r7>   Alright, I'll make an attempt to analyze wry's posts to you.
   <davy>   So you thought I would directly think your human when you said that you thought I was human?
   <Jub3r7>   No, I remembered I was on the bottom of your list and assumed that you would also use the process of elimination.
   <davy>   I wouldn't just Insta wydryn 'cause he's on top of my list
   <davy>   There was a reason why I wanted Mashi to lengthen the phase
   <davy>   (In 15 minutes I have to prepare to go to bed)
   <davy>   still making an attempt?
   <Jub3r7>   To make a post?
   <Jub3r7>   I'm making a post analyzing wrydryn's post atm.
   <davy>   ok
   <davy>   Is it ok if I post this chat, or do you want to leave it between us?
   <Jub3r7>   Sure, post it in the chat.
   <Jub3r7>   er, thread
   <davy>   ok

[Wrydryn]

Just to quickly say, I have nothing to add to what I posted before since SFK is dead now along with my idea.

[Wrydryn]

Well I don't really know which way to vote on this one, so let the breakdown start

Davy:
Last game was your first game and you made really generic posts, nothing like what you're doing this game. This causes me to think that you're trying to cover up your tracks as a wolf by pointing us elsewhere. Although you could just be doing much better this game and are giving me the wrong impression. A behavior change in a game seems awfully wolfish of you, just pointing that out. Also, not sure if your just playing us by not voting for me instantly. Although a completely humane thing to do, still not sure.

Back to what SFK said before for a possibility,

Some possibilities:
1. Wolf is a new to forum or game and does not know BF(to my knowledge) isn't a very experienced player and wolfs him instead of a greater threat(liek Jub or Wry). This would most liekly be Davy seeing as he has only played(once again to my knowledge) one game on NSM.

Jub: I feel that I have no reason to suspect you as a wolf, but process of elimination isn't much to go on for voting. When you have the time since you weren't able to stay up to explain, elaborate on why you think Davy isn't the wolf please; I'd like to know why. You also give no explanation for deciding to vote for me besides process of elimination.


Not much is really left to be said on what has happened thus far and to both stop a possible insta' and that I'm still unsure of who to really vote for, no vote for now. We have until tomorrow anyways.

[Jub3r7]

http://www.ninsheetm.us/smf/index.php?topic=4003.msg129904#msg129904

That post has something other than process of elimination.

[Mashi]

At request, Day Phase will be extended for 2 more days.

[Wrydryn]

Sorry, must've got lost in the other text.
Okay so let me put this is bold so you can see it.

I myself am a very silly person, I'll slip in a little humor no matter how dry it is.(Also my nickname on here is Wry which is dry humor :B Didn't plan that pun but it turned out that way) So if I do make a frivolous statement that isn't serious in its nature what-so-ever, write it off as me being me. By the way, Dude obviously got it but the rest of you apparently can't. This also relates to my post in the last game of my post about possibly being a wolf. Now stop being a bunch of stiffs.

Now seriously though, this week has been jumbled and I had no idea how it would go. Just to state, I might not get on in time tomorrow.


To get back on point of the game, I never saw SFK as a threat and he never was one to me. For starters if he started to point fingers at me and he was wolfed that night, sure, I might look like a wolf but the real wolf could've very well done it himself to pin it on me. Also just for facts, that is not my playing style. Learn what people act like and what happens during night when someone is a wolf or human, it can lead to different conclusions in a game where they might be something else instead.

Now I'm just saying hypothetically, if I were the wolf, blueflower would have never been a choice of mine to start night one with. I wouldn't be in my right mind if it was my choice. What I would do would pretty much fall in place with the Manti rule. Just having experience doesn't make someone an immediate threat. It's what they know and how they apply it in the game.

Reading what you said about SFK being a threat to me when there was no real threat actually makes me think you're a wolf pointing fingers. When I directed attention to SFK, it was only questionable not saying that he WAS a wolf. It would also be so stupid on my part if I wolfed him after doubting him because I don't play that way and it's just a red flag pointing to me.



I'm probably missing some things, I'll answer/discuss them if you bring them up. Also IRC, gogogo.

[davy]

Thanks for analyzing Wry, Jub, you came up with some leads I wouldn't have been able to come up with/.

Well I don't really know which way to vote on this one, so let the breakdown start

Davy:
Last game was your first game and you made really generic posts, nothing like what you're doing this game. This causes me to think that you're trying to cover up your tracks as a wolf by pointing us elsewhere. Although you could just be doing much better this game and are giving me the wrong impression. A behavior change in a game seems awfully wolfish of you, just pointing that out. Also, not sure if your just playing us by not voting for me instantly. Although a completely humane thing to do, still not sure.

Back to what SFK said before for a possibility,


Jub: I feel that I have no reason to suspect you as a wolf, but process of elimination isn't much to go on for voting. When you have the time since you weren't able to stay up to explain, elaborate on why you think Davy isn't the wolf please; I'd like to know why. You also give no explanation for deciding to vote for me besides process of elimination.


Not much is really left to be said on what has happened thus far and to both stop a possible insta' and that I'm still unsure of who to really vote for, no vote for now. We have until tomorrow anyways.

I guess I should analyze my last game posts.

Yes, we know that Wydryn.

Anyway, could anyone tell my how I have to enter the chatroom?

Saying something about your post when you said you might be a wolf and asking how to enter the chat.

There's nothing strange about that, first part is mainly an activity post before I started thinking up leads and than I ask how to enter the chat, cause I just don't know it.

Ok, I think I just came up with something.

As there are 7 players we will have only two days ('cause after day 2 there are 3 players left, and if one of them is a wolf he'll wolf one of the last humans) unless the guardian succesfully guards someone. As the wolf shaman has a very low chanche of seering the guardian this night allready I suggest the guardian just randomly guards someone. Then the first day the guardian should come out so that we have someone we can thrust (althoug, we have to be carefull for counterclaims). The next night the guardian should guard himself so that there is a 1 out of 3 chance we find the wolf in day 2.

I wouldn't say that was generic. I really tried to create a strategy. I don't think you thought it was generic at the moment you read it because you really andswered me.

I'm not quoting my other posts from that phase, because they are all like the one I allready quoted.

I haven't done anything during first night phase in this game, so I can't compare.

Quote from: MassiveMayhem on November 17, 2011, 03:30:07 AM
So who's this davy figure?

Hi mayhem, I'm 'this davy figur'. pleasant to meet you.

Quote from: SuperFireKirby on November 17, 2011, 12:45:40 AM
Chat now. Also ALL THAT IS NECESSARY FOR THE TRIUMPH OF WOLVES IS THAT HUMANS DO NOTHING. GET ACTIVE, FOOLS


There are two reasons why I haven't been in IRC.
The first one is: NO ONE IS SO KIND TO ME TO TELL MY WHERE I CAN FIND IT.
Secconly, I live in Europe, so when I'm able to go online it's still morning in Amerika.

Quote from: Jub3r7 on November 17, 2011, 03:19:06 AM


To cool to be wolfed.

So are you the guardian Jub?
If not, I would suggest the guardian too claim so that we have a sorta leader.

Have any of you seen Shadowkirby in IRC? He has been online since the game starten but hasn't replied. We all know (or at least anyone who has read a TWG where he was in earlier) that he's not even a bit active, but being online and not doing anything makes me suspecting him
 

This post was generic indeed, but we didn't have much leads so I didn't really have more to say.

Well, most games get active when anyone is on to something, but in this case we have no leads.

And since we have no leads I'm voting for shadowkirby

Generic indeed once again.

Since shadowkirby never does anything he probaly hasn't wolfed.
Therefore I've decided to change my vote.

Whirr asked Mashi to end the phase early because he thought all pm's where in.
this makes me believe he can sent one so. then he would be the guard or the wolf. And since we know jubis the guard I guess he's the wolf.
whirr

If you disagree with me SFK please change your vote.

I have to get some sleep now so I'll see who's lynched tomorrow.

This wasn't generic at all. I had the best reason to vote someone among all players that day. Mayhem safety'd SFK, Wydryn voted for me because he thinks my reasoning is stupid (according to him) and SFK votes for me because he is glad he can kill someone with a reason (being the wolf).

Comparing to my posts this game, I put up a defense because I felt I was being suspecious by Blueflower's death, and voting early for a worse reason than last game, and the reason why I voted early was because voting late caused me to die last game.
Than I defend myself again because I felt I was being suspected by jub.

My really not-so-generic posts came after day one, but last game I didn't survive that long, so you cannot compare those posts with the ones from last game.

That's about my posts, now back to Wydryn's

I'm competative set (I think that was not the way to say it in English, but I hope you understeand) so I would have tried to win whenever I could if I was a wolf.

I know I'm suspecious because blueflower was wolfed but plz belive me that I would have ended the game when I could.

Jub pretty much said why he trusted me in the chat (that is, if he's a human).

Sorry, must've got lost in the other text.
Okay so let me put this is bold so you can see it.

I myself am a very silly person, I'll slip in a little humor no matter how dry it is.(Also my nickname on here is Wry which is dry humor :B Didn't plan that pun but it turned out that way) So if I do make a frivolous statement that isn't serious in its nature what-so-ever, write it off as me being me. By the way, Dude obviously got it but the rest of you apparently can't. This also relates to my post in the last game of my post about possibly being a wolf. Now stop being a bunch of stiffs.

Now seriously though, this week has been jumbled and I had no idea how it would go. Just to state, I might not get on in time tomorrow.


To get back on point of the game, I never saw SFK as a threat and he never was one to me. For starters if he started to point fingers at me and he was wolfed that night, sure, I might look like a wolf but the real wolf could've very well done it himself to pin it on me. Also just for facts, that is not my playing style. Learn what people act like and what happens during night when someone is a wolf or human, it can lead to different conclusions in a game where they might be something else instead.

Now I'm just saying hypothetically, if I were the wolf, blueflower would have never been a choice of mine to start night one with. I wouldn't be in my right mind if it was my choice. What I would do would pretty much fall in place with the Manti rule. Just having experience doesn't make someone an immediate threat. It's what they know and how they apply it in the game.

Reading what you said about SFK being a threat to me when there was no real threat actually makes me think you're a wolf pointing fingers. When I directed attention to SFK, it was only questionable not saying that he WAS a wolf. It would also be so stupid on my part if I wolfed him after doubting him because I don't play that way and it's just a red flag pointing to me.



I'm probably missing some things, I'll answer/discuss them if you bring them up. Also IRC, gogogo.

This post would be so ironic if you are the wolf (that would mean you're not in your right mind).

And what exactly is your playing style?\

SFK was a thread to you if you're a wolf because he is experienced and active (since jub wasn't really active and so wasn't dude).

Jub: after the chat with you, I suspect you less than I did before it. But your suspecion isn't gone yet.
Wydryn: Thanks for becomming active. You made yourself a little suspecious by still not being convinced of me being human. It is as if you want to convince jub that I still can be the wolf. However, if I were you, I would stop suspecting me, because if Jub is a wolf and you vote for me he'll insta me and he has won. If you're a wolf, I think it's much easier to convince me that Jub is a wolf than to convince Jub that I am a wolf.

And thanks for extending day phase, Mashi.

[Wrydryn]

Not going to meta-analyze that last post, but I'll answer the questions in it.

Irony is sometimes the best (Don't over analyze this, it doesn't mean anything deeper than what you read)

I'd say my playing style is based more on deceit. When I was a wolf maybe three games ago? It would have been easy to see this if you were in that game. You might be able to get an idea from the post game of it though.

What I'm saying threat wise though is that it can relate to a common phrase, "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer." Not that he is or was, at the time he wasn't a danger to me. I even sent a message to him the night he died trying to get some sort of alliance going, but that obviously didn't work.
[Remember hypotheticals]

Also the goal of the game isn't blame. It's to find the wolf and not convince someone that somebody else is. Since Jub told you that he trusted you, not sure of how he's trying to play that, and that I see is commonly used by a wolf to get someone more towards their side.


Based on information thus far, I'm going to have to say, Jub
It's really more of a gut feeling though because I feel I could go either way on it.


That leaves the hammer to you Davy, make the right choice.


(Also am I the only one who uses the horizontal rule to break up their posts?)

[davy]

It's said you have posted but haven't been on IRC, I waited two hours for you.

But since day phase is extended I'm not voting yet, so both of you, try to convince me the other one is a wolf.

[Wrydryn]

Sorry, ironically I was having Internet troubles just as I posted it.

[davy]

A decision has to be made.

Wydryn

Reason for this is that Jub seems to be trying to help, while Wydryn tries to be not helping. This is mainly based on the fact that he hasn't came online when I asked for it, suspecting me while he really souldn't, and for not giving me a reason to vote Jub.

So congratulations Jub, you've won.


When the game started I thought it was going to be a bad game because we didn't have any special roles. With all the safeties in day one when we actually should have a strategy I allmost felt like giving up the game. But night 2 became fairly active and day 2 became really active. So I think despite the bad start, this was one of the better games in a long time.

So Mashi tell me, did I win or not?