TWG XV: Perils of Saffron

[DrP]

YES! Activity! Finally!

safety jub3r7. It is still a little early to start heading in a direction. we're all getting settled and stuff.

[askalice23]

my two main suspicions at this point are mashi and ray. They both seemed very defensive at the start of the game. The one that strikes me the most is Mashi. Im voting for him because he came out from the very get go defensive when there wasnt a big reason to. Also it is unlike him to play in this manner. Ray in the past has played the exact same way. However why did you edit the post? I didnt read the original so did it have anything that gave you away?

[Raymondbl]

my two main suspicions at this point are mashi and ray. They both seemed very defensive at the start of the game. The one that strikes me the most is Mashi. Im voting for him because he came out from the very get go defensive when there wasnt a big reason to. Also it is unlike him to play in this manner. Ray in the past has played the exact same way. However why did you edit the post? I didnt read the original so did it have anything that gave you away?

no, I just forgot to put my vote for Mashi. Jub is a little suspicious to me....

[Jub3r7]

Any reason why, or is it just gut instinct? Gut instinct doesn't get you very far in this game.
It would be nice of you to explain further.

Raymond has acted a little suspicious, but I feel like he would be more aggressive if he were a wolf.

His first post threw me off a little bit, but since then he's been acting more or less human.
Still no definite conclusions.

Mashi claims that his behavior is used to keep the game active, so I'm having difficulty recognizing whether his behavior is for that purpose or to mask a wolf identity.
There's also a chance of both these reasons for his behavior being true.
Blaaaah.

askalice23 seems human for the same reason as ray. In past games, when he was a wolf, he more aggressive.
Although this doesn't make him 100% human.


I was going to analyze the other people but suddenly why is my dad home two hours early.
Analyze you guys later.

And also someone should pm those who haven't posted, in case they don't realize the game has started yet.

[askalice23]

No one is a definite human right now except for MG and Gregory

so heres my analysis on the game thus far:

Mashi: acting strange imo thats why i voted for you. I really want to believe you are a human because you are making this game very active and you are a skilled player
Ray: well its tough to say that youre a wolf because this is how you act in twg. Plus you and dude have a little history going xD
ETF: not much to go off of havent been super active in the game but thats your style of play so im not suspecting anything as of right now
Super: not active either kinda of strange for you but you did state you have you had online problems... i could be wrong but i think it was you who posted that
Jub: seems very human imo... very active like to see that and you bring up valid points
MG: dead by wolf therefore human
Gregory: claimed seer no counterclaim human
Askalice: well i know im human but i cant proove it unless gregory seered me but unfortunatly there is a master wolf so dont trust the green to be 100%
Dude: seems fine to me other than the friendly little fued you have with ray
Drp: not being as active as i would think youd be... still you are helping a bit so your fine with me.

I will add this.. ray pmed me saying shhh!!!!!!!!!!! not sure what that means. Especially seeing how im suspecting him and mashi it could make me think hes telling me to stop. I dont know if thats enough to change my vote to ray but i am going to because i want to believe mashi is a human and i did have my suspicions for ray.

[master_gamer38]

To let everyone know. ETF has been grounded from her computer. I'm sure she'll use her ipod to come on a little, but not much.

[Mashi]

Okay, I think everyone's seen the topic already, so Guardian, you can PM the Seer claiming now if you would like.
Also, gzgregory, I'm expecting you to be active in this game (And I would like you to be active in the game at LLF as well, since you haven't done anything in that), especially because you're the Seer.

Now, as far as my suspicions go.  I'm leaning towards askalice23 and Jub3r7; though, at the moment, I'm not 100% sure about them.  But anyway, why, you may ask?  For a few reasons.  Lets go back and read a few quotes.  As I go through them, I want you to imagine, in a hypothetical situation, that askalice23 and Jub3r7 are both Wolves.  After that, you could try to see if what they've said so far adds up to them being human.

On that note, this is just a thought at this point.

Mashi, you keep saying wolves please do not wolf me and all of this. Which leads me to think you indeed are a wolf. Think about it like this, a wolf could come out and be defensive like that because they know they are safe. You claim youre being a scapegoat for the blues but i personally do not see it.

At this moment in time, askalice23 states that for myself to ask to be wolfed makes me suspicious.  Why?  Well, for one, it's because if I were a Wolf, it makes it appear that I'm appealing the Wolves to not wolf me and in the end, they won't because I'm a Wolf.
However, why would I make myself open publically?  If I were a Human, why would I believe, even for a moment, that the Wolves wouldn't wolf me just because I'm asking them to?  Easy, I don't.  But if the rest of my accusations in this post add up, it may have gotten us 2 Wolves!
But now, lets pretend I was a Wolf doing that.  What would I have to gain?  At all?  Absolutely nothing.  If I were to not be wolfed after a while, people would grow suspicious of me and may decide to lynch me, so the real Wolves would kill me without having to waste a wolfing.  And how would this be done?  Simple, place a red herring on me (As askalice23 did in the above quote) and don't wolf me.

That is understandable and you are making the game active. However you are being defensive when there wasnt a reason to. I will say i understand where you are coming from with the wolfing a good player. At this point it is too early to tell, so we wait and see who is wolfed tonight.

In this, he's saying I'm defensive.  I've inquired him about this, but what exactly am I being defensive towards?
Now, this is being a bit psychoanalytical now; but at the end of his post, he insinuates that it's too early to tell whether my behaviour's legitimacy can be told, until the wolfing.  Now, what's the only way the wolfing could verify the reasons for my behaviour?  If I were wolfed.  And if not?  Then nothing really happens, except for it being possible to place suspicion one me.  Now, if askalice23 were a Wolf, he would have complete control over whom was wolfed; so it would make sense that he wouldn't wolf me to place a red herring on me, and if he is a Wolf, that's what he did.

my two main suspicions at this point are mashi and ray. They both seemed very defensive at the start of the game. The one that strikes me the most is Mashi. Im voting for him because he came out from the very get go defensive when there wasnt a big reason to. Also it is unlike him to play in this manner.

You still never answered my post from before asking how I was being defensive.
But nevertheless, he states it's unlike me to play in this manner.  There are some reasons that can explain this.  The more obvious one(Though, not confirmed; it still negates out askalice23's argument, which again, leaves me as a blank slate) is that I'm trying to promote activity by posting arbitrary things which may or may not cause discussion (And hey, look whats happened!).  The second is that I haven't played at NSM for a long while now.  Who knows, perhaps my playing style has changed?

askalice23 seems human for the same reason as ray. In past games, when he was a wolf, he more aggressive.
Although this doesn't make him 100% human.

Now, here Jub3r7 states that he believes askalice23 is Human because he's not playing very aggressively.  If anything, askalice23 has only been aggressive; he had already had a vibe against me Night 1, when I feel it's completely conspicuous that my behaviour last Phase can technically be used to prove me Human or Wolf and is technically useless at this time.  This is the reason I'm suspecting Jub3r7; he points out that askalice23 isn't acting as he usually does when he's a Wolf, but is creates a paradox when he states so.  Granted, he does state at the end of the quote that this is reason to believe askalice23 is Human 100%, but he showed some ambivalence in his analysis of all three of the players he analyzed (Raymondbl, askalice23, and me), this this uncertainty does not point to much.

Jub: seems very human imo... very active like to see that and you bring up valid points

Here, askalice23 is saying he believes that Jub3r7 is Human.  Jub3r7 has really done nothing but raise up a few points and express his indecision towards a few things.  I don't see how that points to him being Human.
askalice23 also states that Jub3r7 is also being rather active and is a reason he believes he's a Human.  askalice23 believes my posts at the beginning were a ploy (Though, I don't see how that can be believable with how I've defended myself) and so far, I would say I've been fairly active.  So why is it that I'm not felt as Human for being active either?
(Though, I'm not saying activity proves someone is Human, but I just mean to say that in use of rhetoric.)


So now, I'm going to vote for askalice23.  However; although what I've stated may be compelling, it's fully possible that this was all some very improbable coincidence.  To be frank, I'm not completely sure about this myself, but it's a lead, so I'm going to follow it.  I want everyone to think all of this through and I want everyone to post their own opinions about this or any other suspicions they have.  Even if I get lynched, so long as the reason is at least somewhat reasonable, I'll be happy.  But things like that can't happen unless everyone's talking.

Also, I recommend everyone here visit the #TWG chat.  It's much easier to discuss the game that way and reaction tests and the like are much more useful and real (Unlike on forums, where a Wolf has time to think his/her post through to make it artificial and sly) when done in real time.

[SuperFireKirby]

I've been on #TWG all day and no one's shwon up. And I love how Mashi's being a total beast.

Now I'm a bit more suspicious of Jub than askalice. Main reason. He seems like he's band wagoning to go along with what ever majority thinks just to go with the flow.(My suspicions of ray, askalice's of mashi). Now after Mashi's post I'm sure he'll be all over askalice.

Askalice: Doesn't seem too wolfy to me but.... that most certainly doesn't count him out of the game and I guess I can kinda, sorta maybe see where's he's coming from on suspicions of Mashi.

Mashi: Pulling out the big guns, especially with that last post. But I recall the last game he was a wolf and used similar tactics. Very, very sneaky. And very good at playing wolf, especially when it comes to framing people. Now this definately doesn't mean he's a wolf, I just want to point it out.

gzgregory: Seer. Nothing really more to it since there hasn't been a counterclaim.

raymonbl: My top suspicion at this point. The way he's playing just makes me uneasy.

by the way, safety on Mashi  I agree, he's been very talkative and confusing lately.  Almost like an outburst of innocence. 

A bad attempt at raising suspicion at Mashi? You decide.

MG: Ded.

ETFROXX: Not very active due to her computer loss so I can't say much for or against her.

DRP: Hasn't been doing very musch, might be a wolf slipping under a radar I don't know. Nothing at this point.

With all said and done I'm gonna vote raymondbl for now.

Remember: there are currently 3 wolves. And only 6 humans. If we don't make the right choices, the wolves can easily win this game. Stay on your toes.

[Mashi]

SUPERFIREKIRBY YOU DIDN'T PING ME AND I DIDN'T KNOW YOU WERE IN THE ROOM.

[askalice23]

Mashi if we are going off that logic than you etf and mg are all wolves. You did say if i am killed i will see that Mr mg and Miss ETF get you all did you not. I do not view Jub as a wolf because he is posting valid statements and contributing to this game.

Yes you are too, but your first few posts were plese dont wolf me. It was almost like you were desperatly trying to proove you were a human. I think every post you had first night had something to do with how you were deffinetly a human ad shouldnt be wolfed. Seems like a strategy a wolf would take. you were trying to get the whole i am a human point across when no one was accusing you otherwise.

[Raymondbl]

raymonbl: My top suspicion at this point. The way he's playing just makes me uneasy.A bad attempt at raising suspicion at Mashi? You decide.

Everyone's basically said why Mashi was suspicious, I can explain further, but I thought there was no need.

From his first a couple posts, he's been talking about himself being wolfed.  I've said it once too, but I thought I was so unpopular that I was sure to be killed first.  
 

And now he's going into lengthy defensive posts with un-convincing reasons at why he's doing those, in my opinion. I thought it was self-explanatory.  

Askalice:  I don't think he's a wolf, by the way of his manner of speech.  it seems very much as of a confused human.  
 
Jub: he was voting for SFK with no apparent reason.  That's why I'm suspecting him a little bit, but no big reason.  that's why I'm voting Mashi first.  

SFK, ETf could've been the seer or something.  I still don't trust him.  That is left for the guardian to decide.

You've seen me slightly uneasy probably because
1. I'm bummed and irritated at being another human, which leads to:
2. I'm trying to be as polite as I can, sometimes I don't mean to but my posts sound very offensive, which is why you hated me for a whole year and probably still do now.  

I expected you to vote me though.    


that's all.  

I wish us luck!  (which probably isn't very useful).  

(askalice posted as I was writing this)
ASKALICE YES YES YES THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT I MEANT BY A "BURST OF INNOCENCE"  FINALLY SOMEONE UNDERSTANDS ME WOOOOOT *dances* I didn't notice the mg and etf thing though, I suppose you're right.   vote still on Mashi (just making sure no one misses it). 

[Greg]

Mashi, I'm starting to get suspicious. You've been really defensive and asking wolves not to wolf you, although I see no reason for a wolf to do that in the first place.

I think every post you had first night had something to do with how you were deffinetly a human ad shouldnt be wolfed. Seems like a strategy a wolf would take. you were trying to get the whole i am a human point across when no one was accusing you otherwise.

^This.
I'm going to vote Mashi for now.

[askalice23]

Im voting Mashi because of the defensive position he has been taking all game the big long post sort of sealed it for me.

[Mashi]

Way to completely ignore every single point I made guys.

Prove to me, why would I even think of acting the way I did Night 1 if I were a Wolf?  The infinite reverse psychology idea (Which you people are mistaking for reverse psychology) does not work at all.

And seriously guys, you're voting for me and completely ignored my post which discerned various points about my suspicions towards askalice23 and Jub3r7?  And you tag along with askalice23 when he doesn't even give a reasonable defense back?


As I've stated before, I won't mind being lynched this.  That is, not unless I'm lynched for something reasonable.  You people aren't even thinking this thoroughly.

[Greg]

Ok, I've read through the topic again, and I'm not sure who to suspect, Mashi or askalice23.
You two've been arguing back and forth for the entire topic, and you both are bringing up equally valid points.
Mashi, you've been really defensive for the entire topic.
However, askalice23 has also been overly aggressive towards Mashi.
So I'm going to safety on drpamplemousse, finish this ridiculous amount of homework that I have, then see if any more evidence comes up.
Also Mashi, I've had too much homework lately to be really active, and when I do have free time on the computer it's early in the morning, so the rest of you guys are never on chat