TWG IX: The Lantern Keeper

[universe-X]

Mashi- it's good that you gathered... evidence? but it has to make sense.

Here's my thoughts:
I have a pretty good feeling that Drp was human, but there's no solid evidence as far as that.

It is definitely still possible for us to win without a Seer, if Concerto was the seer.

There are 3 wolves and a strange man out there.

I'm thinking SFK, because a "wolf shouldn't get wolfed, and he wasn't, liek, the first dead". But, just a thought.

jake, in my experiences with him () is good. And quiet (I feel), this game I around. Nothing on him yet.

SuperRiolu could be a human... but he didn't vote for drp when everyone else did. This could be nervousness, languade boundaries (as Mashi said)... or maybe it was his first game and he didn't want to kill his fellow wolf (which drp could also have been). Putting that out there.

Mashi. I'm only suspicious of you because of your big post supporting askalice in the end. Saying that "After the mishap with drpamp, I'm beginning to think he's Human.  Though aside from that, I have no opinion on him as of yet." When I don't see any posts from him and I don't believe I've ever seen him in the IRC chat to talk to any of us. So, why end up thinking he's human when there's a team of 4(maybe 3) out of 8 out to get us?

See if you can convince me otherwise.

[askalice23]

because i talk to people in other things besides irc mainly through pms because thats the easiest way to get ahold of me. im out alot so when i am on i check pms and dont sign into anything. im more active than some may think.

with that being said:

ux: i find it odd that drp would joke around about that but why would he do it with you. why is your role that important that drp had to say hes human because i cheated

mashi: seems human with all the math i dont know much on you right now because ive never played with you

superriolu: odd postings not 100% on what i think because like mashi ive never played with you.

jake: seems human but its hard to tell. its not the postings that make me suspicious its just the fact that he is good at playing the role of a wolf.

mg:human he did all that math and seems to be very determined on a human win.

slow: you and drp were close but you guys were also close last game. so im just going to keep my eye on you.

concerto: human...  wolfing a wolf that early makes no sense

drp: wolf... why would anyone ever do what he did except try to prove the innocence of another (ux)

sfk: you didnt die for the 2nd game in a row :O haha... but i think hes human but not much to really go off of right now.

so for now ux for well read above

[universe-X]

Well, I was trying to create alliances in this game, but I forgot that this is a completely different game we're playing here. I've sent PMs to MG and Drp only. And after the incident with Drp, I obviously shouldn't try any more alliances

Also, don't consider relations from "this or that" game in a current game. They really don't mean anything.

[SlowPokemon]

Askalice is seriously bothering me. GRAMMAR.

But enough about that.

I'm still not completely convinced that DrP was a wolf - what if he really was making a completely stupid comment?

The evidence indeed says that he's a wolf, however.

I'm going to give Universe-x another chance to redeem himself and convince us that he's not a wolf...I have bigger suspects.

Then Universe brought up the interesting subject of Jake... he has been rather quiet - until he gave evidence of DrP being a wolf.

HMM.

[universe-X]

askalice's grammar has gotten better than a few previous games.

What drp said was very stupid.

And I maybe just missing something completely here... but what evidence says that he's a wolf and (if the IRC chat is evidence) how does that prove it...?

[jake3343]

Gahhh reading. It's hard to believe that it's still day 1.

I really don't have a lot to say. My suspicion still rests on SuperRiolu, as I think he and DrP are two of the wolves. As for the third, I don't know. Mashi and MG both seem like humans, but they're both very experienced. Universe-x seems human because SuperRiolu voted for him.

Vote still stands on Riolu.

[Mashi]

I'll place a half vote, half safety on SlowPokemon, though I'll need to think about this a bit more, lots of stuff going on.

Aside from any of this though, one main reason I believe SuperRiolu is Human is mainly because drpamp was suspicious of him to a large extent from what I could tell.  And the reason I believe Slow is suspicious is because he was also suspicious about SuperRiolu, alongside drpamp.  In fact, drpamp even said that SuperRiolu sent him a PM while he was in the chat.  A Wolf wouldn't do that.  There's also the debate about SuperRiolu being new, but that's up for question anyhow.

[SlowPokemon]

Explain why a wolf wouldn't do that?

Why wouldn't a wolf send DrP a pm while he was in the chat?

And how is me being suspicious of Riolu suspicious in itself? Jake is also voting for Riolu.

I keep asking you for explanations of why I'm a suspect, but you haven't given me a very plausible one yet.

[master_gamer38]

Okay, post number two. Time to re-correct the math again based on what's happened.

The table of trials and lantern percents is still fine and dandy. No need to adjust that.

Player standings! Gotta fix it!

   1. Mashi
   2. Concerto No. 20 in D Minor
   3. Universe-x
   4. SlowPokemon
   5. Drpamplemousse
   6. Master_Gamer38
   7. SuperFireKirby
   8. SuperRiolu
   9. Jake3343
 10. Askalice23

Leaving us with 8 people. At the end of this phase, 7.


Skipping the probability stuff for now. Let's go to Mashi's first post.

Day 1 begins, 8 Players left.
Night 2 begins, 7 Players left.
Day 2 begins, 6 Players left.
Night 3 begins, 5 Players left.
Day 3 begins, 4 players left.
Night 4 begins, 3 players left. Game over.

First of all, ending on a night phase is weird. It throws things off, and in the original rules, I believe the wolf/human count is supposed to be at the end of the day phase. Nakah, if you could clarify on this please. Once Nakah clarifies, I can expand further on this.

But based on above, let's go to the seerings.

Night 1: 2/9 getting a Wolf.
Night 2: 2/6 (1/3) getting a Wolf.
Night 3: 2/5 getting a Wolf.

Of course, this is if there aren't any wolves that have been killed. If a wolf does die, then the chance is halved. Also, this isn't actually to seer a wolf. It's to seer a red. (Assuming that the strange man won't be seered red.)


If we go to the all the different concerto scenarios, they are generally the same. Except only one person is gone. Basically this is the current percentages. 1/3rd chance they were a wolf, with a 1/9th chance master wolf. 1/9th chance seer and strange man. and 4/9ths it was a human. The only variation is if concerto was something other than human, which would make human 4/9ths. And remove the chance for either the seer or strange man.

If that doesn't make sense, I'll clarify more.


Lets again visit the lanterns, we now have slightly more time. Could they be used? Yeah, should they be used? I don't think so. Having a lantern being given to the strange man could be disastrous. We still don't know what exactly his win conditions are. And until we do, we should be cautious.

But, a question about the lanterns, what happens to a lantern if someone dies while holding one. Does their dead body continue to hold it? Or is it transferred? Nakah, if you could clarify this too.


Well, what do I think of each player at this point?

   1. Mashi - I'm leaning towards human, but anything could change.
   2. Concerto No. 20 in D Minor - From a statistics stand point, he was probably human.
   3. Universe-x - Seems more human than anything.
   4. SlowPokemon - His posts strike me as odd, and maybe under the pressure of first time wolf.
   5. Drpamplemousse - It would appear that he was a wolf, but we can't assume ourselves into false security.
   7. SuperFireKirby - I haven't seen enough from him to make a definite choice.
   8. SuperRiolu - The language barrier is different to go through. But seeming more wolf than anything.
   9. Jake3343 - Like Mashi, seems human.
10. Askalice23 - From what I've seen of him, he seems to be human.

At this point, I'm keeping my vote at no one, as I should make it on before the voting ends.

[Mashi]

Towards SlowPokemon:

1. Because if drpamp were a Wolf, why would he raise even more suspicions on a fellow wolf by making the PM SuperRiolu sent public?
2. I'm not sure what you mean by this, I think I may have worded my post oddly then.
3. I believe you're suspicious because you were agreeing with drpamp with a lot of things he had mentioned.  When he mentioned SuperRiolu being suspicious, you agreed with him.  I tried to make it so that you would both think about it a bit more by revealing other scenarios, but you seemed deadset about it.  Jake may be voting for SuperRiolu, but that's by his own accord with the knowledge he was given.  I don't think anyone had discussed SuperRiolu with him in the chat, he isn't aware of everything that went about during drpamp, your and my discussion.  Plus, it seemed like he was on neutral grounds with drpamp when they first met and he reacted to the cheating joke in the same way a Human would.
4. My posts are probably somewhat cluttered, but I'm restating things right now actually.

[SlowPokemon]

What do you mean, deadset on voting for SuperRiolu? Of course I am, I believe he's a wolf.

And if you remember correctly, I deduced that myself; when I entered the chatroom the first thing I read was you saying "Yeah, that is fishy"

And I said, "what's fishy", and conversation ensued. Then I said something about askalice and SR both being wolves. Me. Not DrP.

I'm not agreeing with DrP, that's not possible because he didn't give me any reasons. I'm just following a hunch - may not mean anything.

And Jake's info was given to him, alright - by me. (correct me if I'm wrong here)

[Nakah]

Seven pages in on Day 1.


This is epic.

[Mashi]

What do you mean, deadset on voting for SuperRiolu? Of course I am, I believe he's a wolf.

And if you remember correctly, I deduced that myself; when I entered the chatroom the first thing I read was you saying "Yeah, that is fishy"

And I said, "what's fishy", and conversation ensued. Then I said something about askalice and SR both being wolves. Me. Not DrP.

I'm not agreeing with DrP, that's not possible because he didn't give me any reasons. I'm just following a hunch - may not mean anything.

And Jake's info was given to him, alright - by me. (correct me if I'm wrong here)

I really don't see any reason of to why you should be dead set unless he outright claimed to being a Wolf, was seered, etc.  We're basing it off of logic after all, and I've said a few points that we need to take into account.  We're in a sense, creating theories,and we can't be deadset on a theory.

wut?  I did?  That can't be right, saying "Something is fishy" is one of the last things I would say.  Are you sure I didn't say something else, or if someone else said it?  I think you mean drpamplmousse to be honest.

Yes, but he brought it up.  He was the one who felt that SuperRiolu was suspicious in the first place, even if he didn't say much about it. 

As I said, he brought it up because he was suspicious, not randomly.  Also, you say it's a hunch, but you say you're deadset about SuperRiolu.  Of course, you may be using different adjectives to describe your vote, but these contradictions aren't adding up currently.

Alright then. 


Though, after the chat I've had with you, I'm confused again, aaaaaaaaaaaaah.

Going to safety on SFK while I think.

[SlowPokemon]

Alright, thanks for your explanation (and not being a total jerk about it)

I have to think about this after our chat...

Change vote to no one for the time being

[SlowPokemon]

Seven pages in on Day 1.


This is epic.

This beats last game by a landslide... last game I think we had seven pages TOTAL. xD