TWG IX: The Lantern Keeper

[DrP]

I guess I'll save Plan B for next time... so much for this approach to so-called "lighten things up", and then it backfires on me... Nik, you can be so F***ing stupid sometimes... get it together. You just need a vacation, and you just need to move away and start taking those horrid psych classes.

[Mashi]

o__o It's kind of strange that he wouldn't wolf the one we all are...

Hmm?  Sorry, but could you explain this?  I don't quite understand.

[SlowPokemon]

We were all lynching DrP... and SuperRiolu decides to vote for the other choice instead... like he's avoiding voting for DrPamplemousse.

It may be just an over-analysis. I don't know.

But of course, that would mean that Universe-x was not a wolf. So maybe that wasn't the right idea...

Hmm. Now I don't know what to think.

[Nakah]

Alright, that is probably one of the most important rules that I stress. I've said it multiple times and it's in the rule's thread that YOU MAY NEVER SHARE A PM from the host. Now, what I'm going to do about this is a sticky situation, because DRP is either an idiot for making that sort of joke, or he is lying and Universe really did share his pm. In the case of the last part, both of you will be removed from the game, and if the first part is only true, then drp is getting removed from the game. Either way, thanks to drp's leak of info, someone is getting removed from the game.

This rule is no joke, and literally ruins the game.

Universe, in TWG V you pulled a similar stunt with making a pre-game alliance. Now drp is saying that you(and without provocation chooses you) shared your pm with him. This throws you both under the bus, whether you really did share it or not. Your name however was brought up only by drp for breaking the rules, again.

Sorry guys, but this is a multiple offense for Universe and drp made the fatal flaw of trying to convince others that he had seen a pm from the host, and he also included Universe in this ill-conceived joke. Since there is no way to be absolutely sure that pm's were not shared, drp and universe-x have been removed from the game.


   Everyone needs to know the importance of these rules and why they stand. I'm not going to let a joking remark or serious rule break ruin this game. Read the rules.

[SuperRiolu]

Ouch! C'est très horrible, but one of them broke the rules. Something bad happened there.

So, do we have to change our votes, or do they count as the lynched players?

[jake3343]

We need to change our votes.

Right now I'm thinking that SuperRiolu is a wolf and U-X is not. Why would Riolu not vote for DrP? While he could use the whole "I'm new and don't know what to do", I can't see why any new person would go against what everyone else was doing. I could if it involved him voting for a fellow wolf. Therefore, I am voting SuperRiolu. Also, in the IRC, DrP said that SuperRiolu e-mailed (he may have ment pm'd?) him asking who to vote for.

[SlowPokemon]

SuperRiolu, for reasons that I (and Jake) stated above.

[Concerto No.20 in D minor]

Avast!  I was killed again!  Stop killzinz meeze

[SuperRiolu]

No, he sent me an email, not "un message personnel". I was planning on going with Universe-X the entire time, I just asked DrP, since it looked like he knew what he was doing, which is not the not the case now. I will change my vote since it is no longer valid at this time. I cast my ballot for SlowPokemon. (Though he is cool and all), I am voting for him since he may have something sneaky for this game (I did not know how to word this sentence in English)... here it is in french, if you can translate: Je se vote parce que je pense qu'il agit un peu sournois pour un joueur expérimenté et peut-être essayer de nous jouer les uns des autres.

[universe-X]

Ok, as a post on my own part:

WHAT. THE. FUCK.

I did not forward any PM to anyone concerning TWG, I'm not that stupid. And I can take pics (which will say whether you have "forwarded or responded to this message) to prove it. (Cheap, I know, but shows proof.)

DRP did ask me to make a "human team" via PM one night and told me he was human. He said that he would forward his Role PM to me to prove it and I believe I mentioned that it was against the rules.

Universe, in TWG V you pulled a similar stunt with making a pre-game alliance.

Maestro and I didn't know that was a rule until after the game. I abide by that rule now.

One thing more about me: I don't like rumors. So don't start any, especially if false. I take lying/telling the truth very seriously.

Drp... I... C-... *facepalm*

Good luck to the rest of the humans. Nakah, if you are willing to take me back in the game with the proof I'm willing to give, please PM me.

[master_gamer38]

Okay, I think quite a few of you read the rules wrong. The Lantern Keepers can only vote to seer people that are holding a Lantern.

Every Night phase, the three players with lanterns will submit one vote each to the host in order to choose one person who is currently holding a lantern to be seer'd.

Drp, does seem to be quite odd with him revealing himself and then with his last post, about him needing a vacation and all. There is a possible chance the rules were broken.

Drp: No, Nakah would not have the ability to check if pms were sent, the only way to see that, is to look into the databases that only jamaha has access to.


Headed in another direction. I've been feeling nerdy quite a bit lately. Since I've been messing around with programming, and had time. I went and ran probability experiments based upon the lanterns. It took me forever, because I kept screwing up. At first I had things all wrong, then I went back and decided I should separate the master wolf from the regular wolves, and then I realized I needed to include the strange man. All in all, I've done around 300 million trials.

These trials don't prove anything. They just mathematically show the percent chance (rounded to one decimal place) of each of the following situations happening.

Situation	Percent Chance
Seer and Humans	8.0
Seer, Wolf and Human	7.4
Seer, Two Wolves	1.1
Seer, Master Wolf and Human	3.7
Seer, Master Wolf and Wolf	1.4
Master Wolf and Humans	8.0
Master Wolf, Wolf and Human	7.4
Master Wolf and Two Wolves	1.1
Wolf and Humans	15.4
Two wolves and Human	5.5
Only Humans	40.7

The table speaks for itself. Although, it isn't perfect. I'd like to point out that the results will be close, but not exact. Mainly, I'm pointing out the .3 difference between "Seer, Two Wolves" and "Seer, Master Wolf and Wolf" which, essentially is going to be the same thing. But, these slight variances are going to be only slightly off and aren't a main issue.


So, where are things now. Let's take a look at the player standings.

   1. Mashi
   2. Concerto No. 20 in D Minor
   3. Universe-x
   4. SlowPokemon
   5. Drpamplemousse
   6. Master_Gamer38
   7. SuperFireKirby
   8. SuperRiolu
   9. Jake3343
 10. Askalice23

Leaving 7 people. Let's consider the possibilities.


Concerto was human. This doesn't affect things much at all. All of the 'special' roles still remain. (These being the seer, strange man and master wolf). Now, with drp and u-x being removed. Based upon concerto being human. For each of them, there is 1/3rd chance they were a wolf, with a 1/9th chance master wolf. 1/9th chance seer and strange man. and 4/9ths it was a human.

This makes a 1/9th chance they were both wolves. 1/27th it was one wolf and master wolf. 1/81th chance that is was the seer and strange man. The chance of a wolf and a human is the most likely. Which is close to a 1/7th chance.


Concerto was wolf. I'm not going to elaborate further on this one. Since I don't believe they would wolf one of their own.


Concerto was the seer. This hurts our chance to win. Without the seer, finding the wolves among us is going to be much harder, but not impossible. Now further removing roles, there is a 1/3 chance it was a wolf again. 1/9 chance strange man. And 5/9ths chance human. Also, the master wolf's chance of being removed was 1/9th (also accounted into the wolf chance in general). Most likely chance was a 5/27ths chance (near 1/5) of the removed players roles being one human and one wolf. Least likely is the master wolf and strange man being removed.


Concerto was the strange man. This isn't possible as it stated that the strange man cannot be wolfed.


As of writing all of that, I can say that out of those three people gone. We probably lose 3 humans. I'd put my money on 2 humans, and a wolf. Of course, this is all based off the chance of the game. Taking a look at the posts by the players, I'd put my money elsewhere. I'd probably say 1 human (concerto), 1 wolf (drp) and I don't know about u-x.


I would like to go back to Mashi's first post. It has some revising to do. His math needs to be fixed, as there was an unforeseen change in the outcome

Day 1 begins, 7 Players left.
Night 2 begins, 6 Players left.
Day 2 begins, 5 Players left.
Night 3 begins, 4 Players left.
Day 3 begins, 3 players left. Game over.

The game could end earlier, but at max, there are 2 seerings by the seer left, and 2 seers by lantern left.

To update his seering chances.

Night 1: 2/9 getting a Wolf.
Night 2: 2/5 getting a Wolf.
Night 3: 1/3 getting a Wolf. (This must be 1/3rd because two wolves remaining at this point would have won)

The seers by lantern are going to be more interesting. So, using the lanterns they could be passed around, meaning, if an alliance is formed between the lantern holders, that they could team up and seer other people. This would take time, depending on when the lanterns are actually transferred. I'm assuming that they are sent, and then that person is notified at the beginning of the next day phase. Meaning, even if they had an alliance now, they'd have to send a lantern this next night phase, and they'd find out at the beginning of the last phase.

It should be safe to assume that the lanterns won't have much effect on the rest of the game.


Well, nearing the end of a long post. What more needs to be mentioned. The strange man. He may or may not be alive, his victory conditions are unknown. His seering colour is unknown. He certainly is, a strange man. What do we know? That if he guesses the 3 lantern keepers, they all die, and the two regular wolves die. This seems like a great opportunity to use! But, it's the strange man. His victory may come faster than ours if the opportunity was taken. I'd rather have us win, rather than him. So, it's already been basically agreed to keep lantern keepers hidden, but I'd just like to reiterate in my first post.

What other facets can we assume about him? Well, as nakah has said, his seering colour changes based on an unknown variable. I think this means that the seer probably won't ever seer someone purple. Meaning, there might be an extra 'red' in the group. Or maybe an extra 'green.' This further throws off percentages. I'm going to advise at this point, that whatever alliances have been formed as a result of the lanterns, that the lantern holders stay unknown.


Well I just realized something. Lanterns should not be sent at all. If one was sent to the strange man on accident, he would know who the other lantern keepers are. He could potentially sacrifice himself if he would win in that case. Otherwise, he could send it off, and then name the people that have the lanterns.


With that, I'm concluding this massive first post. With a total of one thousand two hundred and 5 words (above the previous horizontal rule), I'm done. It took part of the day, mainly because of the probability trials. I'm currently keeping a vote on no one. I don't want to rush especially now that we may only have this phase to make sure a wolf is gone. I sure hope that all of this work means something, and that maybe one or two people will actually read the whole thing. And yes, I was writing this as things happened. So, some of the stuff near the top isn't as relevant now.

[Nakah]

Now this is TWG.


Oh and Universe is back in the game because he's pretty convincingly telling the truth.

[universe-X]

I will investigate the posts that I (sadly) missed and make a vote later today.

And sorry MG for you having to redo all your math stuff

This is one TWG that I can't miss out on

[Mashi]

No, he sent me an email, not "un message personnel". I was planning on going with Universe-X the entire time, I just asked DrP, since it looked like he knew what he was doing, which is not the not the case now. I will change my vote since it is no longer valid at this time. I cast my ballot for SlowPokemon. (Though he is cool and all), I am voting for him since he may have something sneaky for this game (I did not know how to word this sentence in English)... here it is in french, if you can translate: Je se vote parce que je pense qu'il agit un peu sournois pour un joueur expérimenté et peut-être essayer de nous jouer les uns des autres.

Translation From Google Translate: I will vote because I think he acts a bit shifty to an experienced player and perhaps try to play us from each other.

Errr, did you pay attention to the topic?  Or did you miss something when we voted?  I'm not sure whether it's because you're new or language boundaries (Or both), but if you read the chat log jake posted, voting drpamplemousse seemed obvious.
Though, to be honest, I think SuperRiolu is just a confused Human currently.  Wolves don't usually ask other players who to vote for and usually try to drop herrings more.  I don't really see SuperRiolu doing the latter, but seems to be following other people's suspicions and constantly switching.  Of course, this could go both ways, such as him trying to go under the radar, but it's something worth discussing.

We were all lynching DrP... and SuperRiolu decides to vote for the other choice instead... like he's avoiding voting for DrPamplemousse.

It may be just an over-analysis. I don't know.

But of course, that would mean that Universe-x was not a wolf. So maybe that wasn't the right idea...

Hmm. Now I don't know what to think.

Do you mean that you meant to say 'lynch' instead of wolf in your other post?


Aside from all of this though, I as well am not entirely sure of who to vote for.  As far as my standings go though:

   1. Mashi - Human
   2. Concerto No. 20 in D Minor - Human or Seer, most likely former.
   3. Universe-x - Unsure, leaning towards Human though because of the small chaos caused before.
   4. SlowPokemon - Somewhat suspicious of him.  Seemed to be close to drpamp before.
   5. Drpamplemousse - Wolf, I don't see why a Human would ever joke about something as serious as cheating.
   6. Master_Gamer38 - Seems Human to me so far.  He seems eager to help the Humans win, such as how long it took him to get statistics, his analysis on Concerto, etc.  I find it rare for Wolves to go that far in these such things.  Of course, he seems like a good player, so I'm staying wary of him.
   7. SuperFireKirby - I have no opinion on him as of yet.
   8. SuperRiolu - I believe that he's just a confused Human.  Though, I'm not entirely sure about.
   9. Jake3343 - Like Master Gamer, he also seems Human to me.  Though, not as much currently.  He also seems good, so I'm staying wary of him as well.
   10. Askalice23 - After the mishap with drpamp, I'm beginning to think he's Human.  Though aside from that, I have no opinion on him as of yet.

[SlowPokemon]

You're not making any sense. You guessed 1 wolf and called me "suspicious".

Which I'm not; what does me being friends with DrP have to do with this game?

I'm still voting for SuperRiolu, but you yourself are acting a little strange. Then again, you are a first-timer...

Yep. Still SuperRiolu.