TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[SpecsFlyer17]

So, in addition to wolf-hunting, I think we should also be thinking about who got chilled. If either of those two players gets lynched, the town is able to win.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Also, my previous post about the end game states was incorrect regarding case 2 with the KitBs. The wolves would win if they get 50% of the voting power, rather going to a KitB. I forgot it was 50% or greater.

Actually, scratch that. The wolves can only win together if all the humans are dead. Although I think it's a moot point by now.

[SpecsFlyer17]

It's highly likely that, from your perspective. two of the other three remaining players were blue last night.

This is correct. Since we know the blue wolf is alive, 2 of the 4 players last night were blue. It would be foolish to paint the blue seer, so from my perspective, 2 of 3 players were blue. A green result would've theoretically cleared someone, but then we wouldn't know if the blue wolf was still alive- it could've been Oricorio, so that wouldn't have helped.

but I need to point out that a blue flip is less significant at this point in the game than it was earlier

I'm not sure I agree with this, however. The probability of getting a blue check was higher last night than it was N2, but the significance of it is the same: you either got painted or you're the wolf. Same odds as Oricorio had once the blue hit was revealed to me.

Does that check out to everyone else?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

You're mixing up conditional and absolute probability. If it was down to three players (you, the person you seer'd and the person who you didn't seer), then it would be a true 50/50 from your perspective, and the blue seering tells you literally nothing since you can be confident both other players would flip blue. But there are more players than that, so it's the probability my blue flip is a wolf GIVEN that you can assume 2 out of 3 players were blue last night. Which is different still from the probability Oricorio's blue flip was a wolf given that you can assume 2 out of 5 players were blue N2.

[XiaoMigros]

Yes, it is a 66% chance assuming the wolf wouldn't mark Specs themselves

[XiaoMigros]

that is, 66% of getting seered, but knowing that you are seered, 50% you're a wolf. With Oricorio, 40% chance of being blue

[XiaoMigros]

So, in addition to wolf-hunting, I think we should also be thinking about who got chilled. If either of those two players gets lynched, the town is able to win.

Isn't it going to be BDS or you? i.e. the players most likely to be human?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Okay, I get what you're saying.

[SpecsFlyer17]

If the red wolf died N1/D1, then the blue wolf both painted and chilled Oricorio N2.
What does that accomplish? Well, it's a pretty optimal setup for a vote push. If the seer hits them, they have a color hit going against them, and the vote reduction could make it hard for them to escape.

I want to look at how each player responded to Oricorio getting heat after I went public with the blue hit. Posts incoming.

[SpecsFlyer17]

BDS:

Spoiler

From your perspective, I can see why Xiao makes sense, but at the same time, there is a color seering on you.

In addition, I'm still somewhat cautious of Specs' claims. As I pointed out to both TZP and Oricorio, Specs said some things N1 which seemed to indicate he wasn't a seer (most notably, missing the fact that seering only activates N2, which is something explicitly spell out in the seer role PMs). Though he could've deliberately been trying to shield himself and make the wolves think he wasn't a seer, it does feel more like he was either:
1. A wolf who wasn't a seer and only decided to claim seer privately (to test the waters and perhaps sus out the real seers) once heat started picking up on him.
2. A wolf seer who didn't intend to reveal himself but felt forced to once it seemed like he was a probable lynch candidate.

Also, the fact that Specs got a color hit also kiiiiiiinnda makes it look like he's trying to target Oricorio

Is initially cautious of my seer claim. Not a lot about Oricorio, but more suspicious of me.

On the other hand, Oricorio I sorta feel like your push on Xiao is you taking the opportunity to lynch someone who would otherwise never be lynched because of how human read they are. From your perspective, it'd be a monumental task to get either TZP or I to vote for each other (not to mention convincing anyone else), but Xiao doesn't have quite as much insurance because TZP has been much more proactive at providing reasons to see him as human.

Now he transitions to criticizing Oricorio's push on Xiao.

I'm confused by stuff like this when it's possible for one of the wolves to be a seer. I don't wanna accuse you of deliberately trying to obfuscate things, but it definitely feels like you're... distracting. Right now, from my perspective when it comes to you vs. Xiao, I feel like you haven't given strong enough reasons why Xiao over you. Or even which of TZP or Specs might be a wolf. From my perspective if neither TZP or Specs are a wolf, then the wolves are you and Xiao. If one of TZP or Specs is a wolf, I think it's much more likely to be Specs, leaving the remaining wolf between you and Xiao. Of you and Xiao, I think it's much more likely for it to be you than Xiao.

Definitely more anti-Oricorio as the day progresses, but still cautious of me.

Also, Oricorio. Even without the seering I'd probably be voting for Oricorio. The seering on top of that just further cements that. If I had to rank people based on most likely to be a wolf to least likely to be a wolf, I'd say: Oricorio > Specs > Xiao > TZP

Votes Oricorio with about 5 hours left in the day. The suspicion list checks with how his thoughts progressed throughout the day. The "even without the seering, I'd probably be voting for Oricorio" caught my eye, though. Seems like an odd thing to say. Almost feels like something someone who planted the blue seering on Oricorio may say. Still though, most of BDS's arguments for Oricorio seem centered around his Xiao push, not the seering.

TLDR: Initially suspicious of me, but Oricorio's push on Xiao seemed to seal the deal for BDS's vote. BDS was the second one to vote for Oricorio, after Xiao. Definitely not a hard push, but suspicious of him the whole time. Thoughts seemed pretty methodical, and nothing indicated an unnatural suspicion/push on Oricorio.

[close]

[SpecsFlyer17]

Xiao:

Spoiler

I stand by my thought that its Oricorio and Specs

First thought about the situation is a blanket statement that he's sticking to Oricorio and me.

I'm also not sure if I've just forgotten your playstyle Oricorio but you do seem to be targeting me somewhat aggressively. This is what we call a boxed in wolf.

A very early vote on Oricorio, which is fueled by Oricorio's hard push on Xiao. Is this what we call a boxed in wolf? 

In regards to the statements which pinged me, yes, I agree its not a given that Specs knows who the remaining wolf is. That said, judging by his play style, Oricorio probably does (hence the targeting me). Unlike Oricorio (I assume), I'd be fine voting for someone else if they are more likely to be a wolf, but I don't feel that way towards anyone yet.

Doubles down on his suspicion on Oricorio. Claims to be fine voting for someone else, though. Could be legit, could be just buzzwords for wolf to say. I didn't expect either of their votes to change. Is THIS what we call a boxed in wolf???

Does it not reset every night???

Misses a game rule regarding the paintings resetting each night. Two ways to look at this. 1), By D2, a wolf should know their rules and be familiar with the role PM. This supports town!Xiao. In fairness, I missed some seer rules early, despite that being my role. 2) The urgent nature of this message suggests it affects him in some way. This supports wolf!Xiao.

I vote TZP, I'm not buying the being offline thing and I suspected you from the start. Oricorio at least seems sincere about his actions

We know this was a reaction test with full intention of going back to Oricorio.

TLDR: Early vote for Oricorio and never turned back. However, it didn't necessarily feel like an explicit push on Oricorio, but rather a reaction on Oricorio's push on him. I never really saw much evidence/thoughts on why Oricorio should be voted. BDS, TZP, and I all voted for him eventually, but I don't think it was because Xiao convinced us. Still, Oricorio gave a potential wolf!Xiao a reason to vote him, and he did entirely jump on it without much indication that he would vote elsewhere.

Interestingly enough, Xiao never really mentioned the seer result. Kinda feels like wolf!Xiao would want to bring that up if he wanted to push the lynch.

[close]

[SpecsFlyer17]

TZP:

Spoiler

I'm the other seer and I got a green flip on my target last night

Claims the other seer role.

First things first—I buy the Specs seer claim. He's too conservative to nakedly fakeclaim that without assurances that a seer already died. He could totally be a wolf seer as well, but I don't think he's just a normal wolf bullshitting us. And the fact that he is the one pushing for the "reveal your colors privately" plan makes me trust him more. I agree to this plan, and I'm fine with BDS and Xiao as the escrow agents for those claims. Should I claim who I seered last night in those messages as well?

Buys my claim. Is this an attempt by wolf!TZP to instill trust in the blue hit on Oricorio and push a lynch?

Oricorio, look, if you're actually a human and you got painted, that sucks, especially with the Santa game as your last wolf game, but antagonizing us to get discussion going is a frustrating way to play (telling BDS he's being stupid, telling Specs to do his homework). Nothing they're saying has been unreasonable and it absolutely reads like you feel like you have your back against a wall

References the Santa claim where Oricorio got away with a red seer hit. Says Oricorio's gamestyle reflects someone with their back against the wall.

Looks like I don't really have a choice now, though? Oricorio. Xiao, what did I just say that changed your mind?

Votes Oricorio because Xiao voted for TZP. He had to do this for self-preservation, given Xiao's vote.

TLDR: Overall a fairly inactive phase for TZP. Notably, he held off voting until the very end, and only voted when it appeared required for self-preservation. I'd argue this isn't behavior of someone who is trying to push an Oricorio vote.

[close]

[SpecsFlyer17]

Overall, Xiao had the most obvious push on voting Oricorio out. He did have a reason to though, as Oricorio was going after him pretty hard. BDS was suspicious of me as well, but was eventually convinced to vote Oricorio based on his hard Xiao push. TZP was pretty inactive and only voted at the end.

[SpecsFlyer17]

So we know that the Seers are almost certaunly between TZP/Specs/THC (sadly, THC can't claim to us). If both TZP and Specs are real, that makes Xiao the optimal lynch for today. BDS is likely town based on reaction to TZP's gambit, and since we know that the seers can't both be wolves, then it's better the eliminate the wolf who can't give us information. That world would lead to a TZP/Specs thunderdome D3. Only problem is if THC is a seer, which would mean TZP/Specs w/w is still possible. Given that, I think both seers should still claim their colors privately to BDS.

I wanted to bring up this message as well. I think Oricorio's argument about BDS's reaction to the wolf gambit still holds true. The difference here is that red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP is a possibility and should not be protected because he's simply a seer- he may be the only wolf left!

Right now, I'd feeling led to vote either Xiao or TZP. Curious to hear more tomorrow. Fairly slow day today.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Isn't it going to be BDS or you? i.e. the players most likely to be human?

The wolves want a player at full strength to be lynched. So yes, I think there's a good chance I got the .5 vote. BDS is also plausible. Unfortunately, the more I think about it, that puts the town into a bind. Either lynch the wolf or lynch a non-suspicious player to survive (which doesn't help anything). Lynch a suspicious player and the town loses. We're probably going to have to lynch the wolf today to win.