TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm fine with both seers revealing seering results as soon as possible. It gives us more to talk about, and any amount of forward momentum could be really helpful.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Unsurprising green flip on Xiao for me

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Also a phase extension is probably worse for me, wedding is on the 5th

[mastersuperfan]

Gotcha. Since Xiao is European I think we're safe to keep July 4th as the end date.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

From my perspective, Xiao and TZP are the two most likely wolves. Tomorrow I'm gonna try and wrap my head around which one of them might be more likely to be the wolf based on what we (probably) know about the gamestate. Will probably try to do that regardless of Specs' results.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

If N1P2 was the red wolf, that means that Oricorio was painted and targeted for vote reduction by the blue wolf. Would TZP do that and then seer Oricorio (or at least pretend to have seered Oricorio green)? Would Xiao both paint and target Oricorio for vote reduction?

...actually, now that I say it like that, it kinda makes me trip myself up again and wonder if it's still possible/likely for Oricorio to have been the blue wolf. Why would the blue wolf paint and target Oricorio for vote reduction at the same time?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

If N1P2 was the red wolf, Specs can be trusted 100%, and a blue result is either the blue wolf or whoever the blue wolf painted last night. From the perspective of the non-Specs players, the wolf has to be between the two non-Specs players.

If Oricorio was the blue wolf, TZP can be trusted 100%, and the green result on Xiao clears Xiao, meaning mechanically Specs and I are the only two players who could be wolves. From my perspective, that would make Specs a guaranteed wolf.

I feel like figuring thing stuff out could be key to making the right decision.

I need to sleep. I'm just confusing myself even more

[BlackDragonSlayer]

ONE MORE THING BEFORE I FORGET

If Oricorio was the blue wolf, that means red wolf Specs would've also had to have targeted Oricorio for vote reduction and put a massive target on him by publicly seering him blue. Specs did go to Oricorio about his result first, which as I'm pretty sure I mentioned before, could've forced him into revealing it publicly if wolf Specs thought Oricorio was a human.

...but, correct me if I'm wrong, he could've also just passed it off as a reaction test and faked another seering result to keep the person he vote reduced alive. But would wolf Specs take the chance of it backfiring on him then?

Thinking this over in my tired state I still think red wolf N1P2 is more likely (I think...?). If that's true, then Specs getting a green result would probably be a lot better than getting a color result at this point, since it would definitively clear someone. idk anymore

[XiaoMigros]

Gotcha. Since Xiao is European I think we're safe to keep July 4th as the end date.

yeah I mean its 2am on the 5th for me anyway haha

[XiaoMigros]

Also I'm a little confused by all these hypotheticals, I'll need time to work through them

[SpecsFlyer17]

Well folks, the blue wolf is still alive. I got another blue hit last night.

[XiaoMigros]

You want to share it publicly?

[SpecsFlyer17]

TZP flipped blue last night.

First, this means Oricorio was not the blue wolf. That was a mislynch, successfully misguided by the blue painting. Oricorio, if you're reading this, sorry man.

Next, since the blue wolf is alive, that brings up the discussion of if the red wolf is alive. I'm in the camp that the red wolf was killed, either N1P2 or THC, despite neither making a ton of sense from their perspectives. If both wolves are alive, we've mislynched twice, and we're not in a good place.

This brings up the conversation of red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP, which aligns with the actions taken place. However, this means on N2, TZP did all three actions on Oricorio: chill, paint, and red-seer.

Painting Oricorio blue raises suspicion, and inevitably sets up the opportunity to push a lynch in the event the blue seer hit Oriocio. If the goal is to potentially push an Oricorio lynch, reducing his vote does make sense. That could explain the double target.

However, TZP sent me this PM in the final seconds of D2, titled "Insurance":

Hello fellow seer. Xiao just privately told me his vote on me was a reaction test on Oricorio and that he'll change it back... but if he doesn't change it before the deadline and I die, you know who to go for.

This appears human. Why would dead wolf!TZP care about Xiao dying later? He wouldn't, as wolves are on solo teams. It could have been a message to fake looking human, especially if TZP was confident he would survive (and to be fair, it didn't look like BDS or I were going to change our votes). However, it was sent with 3 minutes left in phase. That's crunch time, and I don't know if TZP would be thinking about mind games at that point.

At the end of the day, TZP has a blue hit, and that's not something to ignore. Having the blue seer hit the blue painted target twice in one game would just be unlucky. Gambler's fallacy says it's still a 50/50 today, but that would be quite unfortunate.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Aw man that really sucks. Specs you're gonna vote who you have to vote, but I need to point out that a blue flip is less significant at this point in the game than it was earlier. It's highly likely that, from your perspective. two of the other three remaining players were blue last night. Please don't just execute me based on that flip!

My vote's going to BDS or Xiao, I don't think I'm capable of the tinfoil required to mistrust Specs at this point. Leaning toward Xiao because I think he would be more likely to paint me than BDS would.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Some possible end-game states, assuming there is one wolf alive.

Wolf is lynched: Town wins.

Human with .5 votes is lynched: We play on to D4. D4 will be two humans with a combined 1.5 votes vs one wolf with 1 vote.

Human with 1 vote is lynched: Wolf wins. D4 will either be two humans each with .5 votes or one human with 1 vote vs one wolf with 1 vote. Either way, the wolf will have 50% of the voting power (1 vs 1) by the end of N4.

Also, my previous post about the end game states was incorrect regarding case 2 with the KitBs. The wolves would win if they get 50% of the voting power, rather going to a KitB. I forgot it was 50% or greater.