TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[SpecsFlyer17]

Another thing worth mentioning. I think it's beneficial to keep the votes as grouped up as possible to avoid being singled out as .5 vote player. If someone can be identified as having .5 votes today, if the other wolf is alive, they can eliminate them during the night.

Example: If TZP decided to vote for me independently and my vote total came back as .5, he's on the table to be killed N3 if the opposite wolf is still alive. Opposed to if he votes in the Oricorio group and the total was 3.5 or something, the wolf(ves) don't know who the .5 vote player is.

Does that logic check out?

[XiaoMigros]

Speaking of TZP, I'm with Oricorio on the idea it would be nice to hear more from him

[XiaoMigros]

Another thing worth mentioning. I think it's beneficial to keep the votes as grouped up as possible to avoid being singled out as .5 vote player. If someone can be identified as having .5 votes today, if the other wolf is alive, they can eliminate them during the night.

Example: If TZP decided to vote for me independently and my vote total came back as .5, he's on the table to be killed N3 if the opposite wolf is still alive. Opposed to if he votes in the Oricorio group and the total was 3.5 or something, the wolf(ves) don't know who the .5 vote player is.

Does that logic check out?

Does it not reset every night???

[SpecsFlyer17]

Does it not reset every night???

Rules say permanently.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Speaking of TZP, I'm with Oricorio on the idea it would be nice to hear more from him

Agree. He also does need to vote, and as Specs touched on, we definitely wanna make sure there's a consensus in case of vote manipulation shenanigans.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I'm doing my best here everyone. I'll respond more thoroughly and vote in the next hour

[XiaoMigros]

Thanks, I hope you can use the 2 hours to their fullest!

[Oricorio]

I'm back

Why? Because you're a wolf and will have achieved your wincon by then?

Is it just me, or does this describe Specs's behavior this phase? I mean, the pairing involving me that they've most passionately argued for is... the one involving themselves?

[Oricorio]

Another thing worth mentioning. I think it's beneficial to keep the votes as grouped up as possible to avoid being singled out as .5 vote player. If someone can be identified as having .5 votes today, if the other wolf is alive, they can eliminate them during the night.

Example: If TZP decided to vote for me independently and my vote total came back as .5, he's on the table to be killed N3 if the opposite wolf is still alive. Opposed to if he votes in the Oricorio group and the total was 3.5 or something, the wolf(ves) don't know who the .5 vote player is.

Does that logic check out?

Meh. You gotta keep in mind a wagon consisting of four players includes at least one wolf. If we mislynch we're screwed >90% of the time so best to focus on accuracy here

[Oricorio]

Xiao is still wolf in all the most plausible worlds, but the one thing I can say in their favor is that they derptelled a bunch. I'm not sure whether they're known for faking that/not paying attention as wolf.

[Oricorio]

It may have been a mistake in hindsight to not really pressure TZP here. As things currently stand, the wolves seem overwhelmingly likely to win, so wolf!TZP isn't really incentivized to do anything right now. As for their claim, it wasn't difficult to figure out BDS, Xiao, and me weren't seer based on our SoD2 posts (Xiao flat out confirmed it) so it wasn't too risky a move, and while they would have had to get lucky with their color claim it's still a 50% chance. The main argument against that, though, is that a green check on the thread's consensus target would be more likely to shake it up, while if they're a fakeclaimer they'd probably want to keep the status quo. Still, a world where they are wolf seer can't be ruled out right now.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

It may have been a mistake in hindsight to not really pressure TZP here. As things currently stand, the wolves seem overwhelmingly likely to win, so wolf!TZP isn't really incentivized to do anything right now. As for their claim, it wasn't difficult to figure out BDS, Xiao, and me weren't seer based on our SoD2 posts (Xiao flat out confirmed it) so it wasn't too risky a move, and while they would have had to get lucky with their color claim it's still a 50% chance. The main argument against that, though, is that a green check on the thread's consensus target would be more likely to shake it up, while if they're a fakeclaimer they'd probably want to keep the status quo. Still, a world where they are wolf seer can't be ruled out right now.

That's definitely true; as I said, a TZP/Xiao pairing would be worst case scenario for us. Best we could hope for is that one or both of the wolves have already had their vote reduced. At this point though, regardless of what option we go for, it's in our best interest to maintain a consensus vote. And with a half hour left in the phase, if we change the vote we have to start doing it, like, now.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Responding to points piece by piece to make things more digestible and keep conversation flowing

A couple questions for TZP: Do you think me/Xiao is a viable team? Do you think we're being too quick to clear BDS based on his reaction to the gambit?

To answer your second question first, yes, I do think you are being too quick to clear BDS on this basis (but he's still either my strongest human read or second-strongest human read). In addition to having played TWG longer than anyone else here, he and I were also talking about something else in PMs that I completely changed topic from to run the reaction test. It was a pretty awkward conversation shift, and I think it was probably very obvious to BDS what I was doing

About you and Xiao, yes, I do think you're a viable team, and I don't see anything would indicate that you wouldn't be.

[Oricorio]

A "consensus" between wolves and town is not an ideal outcome. Granted, if there was no crossfire we're kind of screwed either way. A bit alarming that we're missing three people this close to EoD, but eh.

[XiaoMigros]

I am here