TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[Oricorio]

BDS, if you're town and think Specs is a wolf, then unless you think THC is seer then Xiao has to be his partner

[XiaoMigros]

PMs received and read. [...] I can confirm that the apparent seers and seerings match.

Me too (still reading through everything, hold on

[BlackDragonSlayer]

BDS, if you're town and think Specs is a wolf, then unless you think THC is seer then Xiao has to be his partner

Elaborate?

[mastersuperfan]

Apparent votecount:
- Oricorio: 3 (Xiao, BDS, Specs)
- Xiao: 1 (Oricorio)



(if it didn't, you'd be dead already)

Phase ends in a little under 4 hours!

[Oricorio]

Elaborate?

Me/Specs is a hellword and the seers can't be w/w

Anyway, phone battery's at 3% and I won't be home for a while, so this may be my last post

[XiaoMigros]

Oricorio, you know me and my playstyle well enough by now. As I referred to previously in #183, painting my 'hedged' or 'contrived' reads as illegitimate because they look and feel different to those of other players here is, in my opinion, unfair at best and disrespectful at worst. If you like, I can respond to the slew of posts you've provided though personally I don't think there'd be much value in that.

[XiaoMigros]

what does hellword mean?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

The way I see it:
- Specs/Oricorio is a possibility, but they probably didn't think the other were wolves when Specs revealed his seering publicly.
- Specs/Xiao is a possibility, but they probably weren't connected when Specs revealed his seering publicly, which means Specs either faked his seering on Oricorio (and seered Xiao instead and assumed Xiao was a wolf) and was assuming Oricorio wasn't a wolf.
- TZP/Xiao is a possibility, and if it is we're all doomed.

I'd like to hear more outside opinions (especially people other than Oricorio) to either back me up or tell me I'm crazy.

[Oricorio]

Oricorio, you know me and my playstyle well enough by now. As I referred to previously in #183, painting my 'hedged' or 'contrived' reads as illegitimate because they look and feel different to those of other players here is, in my opinion, unfair at best and disrespectful at worst. If you like, I can respond to the slew of posts you've provided though personally I don't think there'd be much value in that.

This is just AtE. Weird, since I believe they called me out earlier for being too emotional?

[Oricorio]

what does hellword mean?

Very unlikely/implausible/nonsensical world

2% phone battery!

[Oricorio]

I did, and you were a positive hit for my color.

Obviously that's not proof that you're a wolf, but it's a 50/50 now. I don't really have any reason to believe one way or the other at the moment.

One last PM that may be important

[Oricorio]

Wait, I alrady quoted it. Whatever, it shows I knew about Specs's claim before anyone else

[BlackDragonSlayer]

In the interest of pushing a different angle: if Oricorio and Specs are wolves together, what are the chances they've already connected?

In contrast, if Specs and Xiao are wolves together, then I'm not sure if they would have connected by now unless Xiao made a bold move and PM'd Specs this phase on the assumption Specs is a wolf.

Let me reason this out for a moment so I don't confuse myself. In my initial post I sorta assumed that Specs would know you're a wolf, but I don't think that's a given. Specs seered you blue, which means that if Specs was a wolf he'd have to be the red wolf and blue seer, and if you were a wolf that'd make you the blue wolf. If he seered you blue, for all he knows you're a human who was painted blue by the blue wolf. He PMs you first to try and figure out whether you're the blue wolf or just a human painted blue. Meanwhile, assuming you're the blue wolf, you have to determine whether he's the red wolf blue seer or just the blue seer.

Meanwhile, Specs told me directly that he was a seer, so he can't try to hide that fact any more. He can't just hide and try to pretend THC was a seer, so he has to give some result. If you're a human he's already told you his seering results, so he sorta has to commit to that.

For all anyone knows, each of you came to the conclusion that the other person was a human; hence why Specs had no issue revealing his seering results.

Hence why I asked the question of what the chances are that wolf!Specs and wolf!Oricorio would have connected.

The way I see it:
- Specs/Oricorio is a possibility, but they probably didn't think the other were wolves when Specs revealed his seering publicly.
- Specs/Xiao is a possibility, but they probably weren't connected when Specs revealed his seering publicly, which means Specs either faked his seering on Oricorio (and seered Xiao instead and assumed Xiao was a wolf) and was assuming Oricorio wasn't a wolf.
- TZP/Xiao is a possibility, and if it is we're all doomed.

I'd like to hear more outside opinions (especially people other than Oricorio) to either back me up or tell me I'm crazy.

@SpecsFlyer17 @XiaoMigros @TheZeldaPianist275

Thoughts/responses to these posts?

[SpecsFlyer17]

To catch people up, yes I'm the blue seer.

Regarding the Specs/Oricorio pairing, I'm not sure why that's completely implausible. Is it just because wolfseer!Specs wouldn't want to out Oricorio's blue check? From wolfseer!Specs' point of view, how would I even know the Oricorio is the blue wolf? I have no true way of knowing whether Oricorio's blue check was legit or a painting. So why is our pairing implausible exactly?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Okay let me rethink this. Hang on lol