TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[SpecsFlyer17]

Also, red or blue seerings are more likely than not to still be humans

This was post #6. I made the same rules misunderstanding. Xiao and I both redacted our statements early N1 after MSF cleared it up.

[Oricorio]

well that's not good...

I will say that "commenting first thing SoD on a result that's bad for town" is a common wolftell

[Oricorio]

Also it would be nice to hear from THC at some point...

This is another wolfy post, saying you want to hear from someone is not a read and just a way of filling spaceightly pushing someone, and the unnecessary ellipses is also something wolves do a lot.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Last wolf is between Specs/TZP, but number one TZP has done so little this phase it's hard to solve between them and number two this has (or had) a chance of self-resolving if one of them died. However, you're blind if you think I haven't been trying to solve Specs, what do you think I was trying to accomplish with the PMs I sent you?

Additionally, if you think my solve is too narrow, isn't the same true of Xiao? But I've at least been trying to solve in worlds while Xiao takes the laziest answer

Looking over your posts this phase, it doesn't really feel like you've been putting much emphasis on Specs. Re: PMs, that's kinda true, but at the same time handling it in PMs like that feels like it could just be a way for you to try and covertly connect with wolf!Specs.

Like I've been at least trying to get to the bottom of everything here while all Xiao's done is just parrot things others have said with no digging of their own. The redcheck is unfortunate, and I understand if it costs the game as people aren't likely to trust me after I got away with a redcheck as wolf in the Grinch game. However, you have to understand that seerings are somewhat rigged towards the wolves as they can frame whoever they think is likeliest to be seered (and I, due to my low activity before this phase, wasn't a difficult guess) plus it's always possible Specs is a wolf who made up that result for his own purposes (regardless of whether or not he's actually seer).

Has Xiao really been parroting? As I mentioned in my overview of each player D1, Xiao usually has a tendency to go against the grain to varying degrees and I feel like that behavior has been fairly consistent. At this point in the game there aren't really many options, and Xiao being the first one to strongly push against you doesn't feel contradictory or like parroting.

Also, TZP seered you green, so that means you weren't painted by at least one wolf.

This is another wolfy post, saying you want to hear from someone is not a read and just a way of filling spaceightly pushing someone

"I want to hear more from X" is something I've done repeatedly, not just this game, but prior games.

and the unnecessary ellipses is also something wolves do a lot.

...

idk about Xiao, but me, that's just how I speak normally

[Oricorio]

It seems all Xiao really managed to accomplish D1 was write a post with mostly hedgy reads and voting TZP early. He also seems to have abandoned the TZP push?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

In the interest of pushing a different angle: if Oricorio and Specs are wolves together, what are the chances they've already connected? Wolf!Specs probably would have legit seered Oricorio, and from there it's a matter of whether Specs would want to throw Oricorio under the bus or attempt to win together. Depending on who Specs and Oricorio may have targeted for vote reduction, it's possible Specs' hands may be forced in the matter regardless (like, maybe he painted me or TZP and reduced Xiao's vote, so Xiao wouldn't be an optimal lynch if he wanted to win).

In contrast, if Specs and Xiao are wolves together, then I'm not sure if they would have connected by now unless Xiao made a bold move and PM'd Specs this phase on the assumption Specs is a wolf.

[Oricorio]

Looking over your posts this phase, it doesn't really feel like you've been putting much emphasis on Specs. Re: PMs, that's kinda true, but at the same time handling it in PMs like that feels like it could just be a way for you to try and covertly connect with wolf!Specs.

I was already in PMs with Specs, where did you think I got the information? This feels contrived

[SpecsFlyer17]

I'm thinking about why Oricorio would be painted besides just a random decision.

I figured TZP would be a good painting target after his gambit. Wolves may have thought that seers would go for him after his gambit.

Xiao and BDS, I'm not quite as sure.

[Oricorio]

In the interest of pushing a different angle: if Oricorio and Specs are wolves together, what are the chances they've already connected? Wolf!Specs probably would have legit seered Oricorio, and from there it's a matter of whether Specs would want to throw Oricorio under the bus or attempt to win together. Depending on who Specs and Oricorio may have targeted for vote reduction, it's possible Specs' hands may be forced in the matter regardless (like, maybe he painted me or TZP and reduced Xiao's vote, so Xiao wouldn't be an optimal lynch if he wanted to win).

In contrast, if Specs and Xiao are wolves together, then I'm not sure if they would have connected by now unless Xiao made a bold move and PM'd Specs this phase on the assumption Specs is a wolf.

This is stupid. If we're w/w and Specs knows it he gets no advantage from bussing when any mislynch would be a guaranteed win (so long as we didn't crossfire). Specs claimed his result to me before anyone else, so why would he out that if he found out we were wolves? This is just illogical and is really making me question my townread on you

[Oricorio]

I'm thinking about why Oricorio would be painted besides just a random decision.

I figured TZP would be a good painting target after his gambit. Wolves may have thought that seers would go for him after his gambit.

Xiao and BDS, I'm not quite as sure.

Because of my activity, dyh. There.'s little reason to seer TZP after the gamvit which nakes them "easier" to solve.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

This is stupid. If we're w/w and Specs knows it he gets no advantage from bussing when any mislynch would be a guaranteed win (so long as we didn't crossfire). Specs claimed his result to me before anyone else, so why would he out that if he found out we were wolves? This is just illogical and is really making me question my townread on you

i tried to throw you a bone and your response is to turn it back as a suspicion on me

[SpecsFlyer17]

I'm also going to take a step back for a second. I have a color check on someone, which gives them a 50% chance of being a wolf. That's hard data. Everything else is speculation. I really would hate to be burned because I decided to go against the probability and trust a hypothetical. I saw it happen right before my eyes in the Grinch game, and it burned the town. I'm going to go reread the Grinch thread and see how Oricorio responded to getting red checked by TZP.

Since there's no Instakills, Oricorio. I'll be around.

[Oricorio]

i tried to throw you a bone and your response is to turn it back as a suspicion on me

How do you think that "it's possible Specs' hands may be forced in the matter regardless"? If me and Specs are w/w, we can win by converging on you or TZP N3 regardless of if Xiao was marked or not. I'm basically the one person here who can't be paired with Specs

[Oricorio]

I'm also going to take a step back for a second. I have a color check on someone, which gives them a 50% chance of being a wolf. That's hard data. Everything else is speculation. I really would hate to be burned because I decided to go against the probability and trust a hypothetical. I saw it happen right before my eyes in the Grinch game, and it burned the town. I'm going to go reread the Grinch thread and see how Oricorio responded to getting red checked by TZP.

Since there's no Instakills, Oricorio. I'll be around.

Not a 50% in this game, as I already established it skews somewhat towards the wolves as they can choose who gets redchecked

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Specs claimed his result to me before anyone else, so why would he out that if he found out we were wolves?

Let me reason this out for a moment so I don't confuse myself. In my initial post I sorta assumed that Specs would know you're a wolf, but I don't think that's a given. Specs seered you blue, which means that if Specs was a wolf he'd have to be the red wolf and blue seer, and if you were a wolf that'd make you the blue wolf. If he seered you blue, for all he knows you're a human who was painted blue by the blue wolf. He PMs you first to try and figure out whether you're the blue wolf or just a human painted blue. Meanwhile, assuming you're the blue wolf, you have to determine whether he's the red wolf blue seer or just the blue seer.

Meanwhile, Specs told me directly that he was a seer, so he can't try to hide that fact any more. He can't just hide and try to pretend THC was a seer, so he has to give some result. If you're a human he's already told you his seering results, so he sorta has to commit to that.

For all anyone knows, each of you came to the conclusion that the other person was a human; hence why Specs had no issue revealing his seering results.

Hence why I asked the question of what the chances are that wolf!Specs and wolf!Oricorio would have connected.