TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Very sorry for my absence everyone. I'll catch up over the next couple hours and engage with what's been said recdently

[TheZeldaPianist275]

First things first—I buy the Specs seer claim. He's too conservative to nakedly fakeclaim that without assurances that a seer already died. He could totally be a wolf seer as well, but I don't think he's just a normal wolf bullshitting us. And the fact that he is the one pushing for the "reveal your colors privately" plan makes me trust him more. I agree to this plan, and I'm fine with BDS and Xiao as the escrow agents for those claims. Should I claim who I seered last night in those messages as well?

[SpecsFlyer17]

First things first—I buy the Specs seer claim. He's too conservative to nakedly fakeclaim that without assurances that a seer already died. He could totally be a wolf seer as well, but I don't think he's just a normal wolf bullshitting us. And the fact that he is the one pushing for the "reveal your colors privately" plan makes me trust him more. I agree to this plan, and I'm fine with BDS and Xiao as the escrow agents for those claims. Should I claim who I seered last night in those messages as well?

I'll send my PM to BDS and Xiao now.

Regarding the green result, I say yes if you're comfortable. It will help build a picture of what we're dealing with.

[SpecsFlyer17]

PM has been sent to BDS and Xiao.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Same. Check your inboxes fellas

[mastersuperfan]

6 hours left in Day 2!

Apparent votecount: (because I forgot earlier)
- Oricorio: 1 (Xiao)

Votecount remains unchanged.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

With respect to the wolf claim gambit, I didn't really expect to get anything earth-shattering out of that. At most I wanted to see how other players reacted to the bait and who they pushed me toward hitting in the night. I knew that it would be shared with the thread pretty quickly (though I was a bit surprised Oricorio didn't wait till near the end of the phase to do so, and I was surprised that everyone didn't send at least *something* in response). If I were a wolf trying to scout out a partner, I would have done that by claiming my specific role as a wolf.

As far as current pushes go—I still read Xiao as fairly human but I'm confused why Specs said that the "majority of the field" agreed on that—I thought it was just me and BDS? I mentioned that my suspicion list moved around a bit last night as a result of the D1 lynch, but funnily enough, I think it's settled again roughly around where it was during D1 lol. I'll wait for BDS and Xiao before I elaborate more on that.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

PMs received and read. If we wanna wait for Xiao to reveal specifics I'll wait, but I can confirm that the apparent seers and seerings match.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also, Oricorio. Even without the seering I'd probably be voting for Oricorio. The seering on top of that just further cements that.

If I had to rank people based on most likely to be a wolf to least likely to be a wolf, I'd say:
Oricorio > Specs > Xiao > TZP

[mastersuperfan]

Apparent votecount:
- Oricorio: 2 (Xiao, BDS)

[Oricorio]

PMs received and read. If we wanna wait for Xiao to reveal specifics I'll wait, but I can confirm that the apparent seers and seerings match.

Match as in they're the same or opposite?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Match as in they're the same or opposite?

They don't contradict each other; they're the opposite from each other.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Is there really even a point in being coy about this any more? I Ctrl+C/Ctrl+V'd the same message to Xiao that I sent to BDS lol, it would be suicidal for one of the four of us to claim different things in public from what we said in private

[Oricorio]

Statistically speaking, there is a 2/3 chance both Specs and TZP are legit if we accept the premise that the seers are between them and THC. This is because in half the worlds where THC is a seer, the seer who's faking would have claimed the same color as the real seer.

[Oricorio]

What has Xiao done that people are townreading them for? All I can gather is that they have a decent tone, but is that really hard to fake? They hadn't responded to the gambit, accomplished little behind the scenes as far as I can tell, and are mainly sheeping the easiest reads; I don't see much in the way of solving from them. Contrast me, who proactively pushed the private seer claims to see if they overlap (though it seems BDS is getting the credit for that, even though I am the one who suggested it) and have been trying to actively lock the game down. Which one of us actually looks like the wolf here?