TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[mastersuperfan]

In my defense, the N2 seer activation was a later revision to the game rules. I agree that it's not the best look, but it was an oversight on my end.

For full transparency, here is a list of changes that were made to the game between when it was first posted in host sign-ups and when player sign-ups started:
- Burning/chilling no longer changes player color, and temporary paintings were added instead.
- Seers now only work from N2 onward, instead of from N1 onward.
- It is not possible for both seer roles to go to wolves.
- True vote counts are now released following each day's lynch.

[Oricorio]

I wanted to ask about this. Why does this make town!BDS most likely? Under normal rules where wolves are teammates, I'd say you're correct. But since the wolves are on completely separate teams, a wolf ratting out another wolf claim seems logical. wolf!BDS needs wolf!TZP to die in order to win.

This is untrue, wolves can win together so there is a benefit in collaboration

[mastersuperfan]

24 hours left in Day 2!

[SpecsFlyer17]

This is untrue, wolves can win together so there is a benefit in collaboration

Oh you're right. My b. So the logic being wolf!BDS wouldn't rat out the other wolf because it may be beneficial to work together?

[Oricorio]

Oh you're right. My b. So the logic being wolf!BDS wouldn't rat out the other wolf because it may be beneficial to work together?

Yes, and he wouldn't have an incentive to out it to Xiao and play along with TZP. (If he did either individually, he could still be wolf, but the combination of the two makes it unlikely, as if he was wolf he'd be opening himself up to being screwed over by one of them)

[Oricorio]

Although the wolves aren't a team (though I believe there is at least a decent chance they might have found each other by now and I wouldn't take that possibility for granted), the fact that they can work together means they're still incentivized to push a lynch on town. Ultimately, that means it's likely 40% of the players here (50% of the other living players from a town perspective) are still likely pushing a vote that they think will be bad for town, so keep that in mind before pushing something as "consensus".

[Oricorio]

Although the wolves aren't a team (though I believe there is at least a decent chance they might have found each other by now and I wouldn't take that possibility for granted), the fact that they can work together means they're still incentivized to push a lynch on town. Ultimately, that means it's likely 40% of the players here (50% of the other living players from a town perspective) are still likely pushing a vote that they think will be bad for town, so keep that in mind before pushing something as "consensus".

In fact, I think the "consensus" vote is almost always town here. Think about it: wolves are incentivized to lynch someone they haven't marked to get to their win condition faster, and they're incentivized to avoid someone they think might be their partner. The wolves control 40% of the voices in the thread (assuming N1P2 town), which means a "consensus" can't be formed without the input of at least one of them. Add this together, and what can you conclude? The "consensus" target is likely town that didn't get marked.

[Oricorio]

Can town still win after two mislynches in a row? The answer is yes, but only if wolves cross marked each other N2 or if we mislynch a marked townie, the other person marked is a wolf, and the remaining wolf gets marked N3. Otherwise, if we mislynch today you better pray N1P2 is a wolf.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

sometimes I get the impression that portraying me as stupid is a legit strategy to detract from what I do say

Huh? I was referring to TZP doing stuff like the wolf gambit he did last phase.

I don't think you quite understand the situation we are in. If both of the seers survive D2, it can give us a lot of information going into F3, which is why Xiao is optimal (and not because it "looks bad"). I don't really care that Xiao is townread, what have they really done to advance town's wincon? The D1 vote was probably a mislynch and given that the two most viable CWs were our seer claims, maybe that's a sign town wasn't doing well at all D1. Still, we're in a situation where it's close to a lock but one mistake means it's all over. For now, we need to establish the trustworthiness of the seer claims (but we know at least one has to be legit).

And if we don't lynch a wolf today we probably lose period. There are 5 players, 2 of whom are wolves and up to 2 of whom (safe to assume it's 2) who have halved votes. Best case scenario for humans is that the wolves reduced each other's votes, but that's not something we should count on. Needless to say, if we lynch a human today, especially one who has a full vote it ain't looking too good.

If both seers are legit, then you (or N1P2 I guess) are not a mislynch. Unless you want to convince me it's BDS?

I'm confused by stuff like this when it's possible for one of the wolves to be a seer. I don't wanna accuse you of deliberately trying to obfuscate things, but it definitely feels like you're... distracting. Right now, from my perspective when it comes to you vs. Xiao, I feel like you haven't given strong enough reasons why Xiao over you. Or even which of TZP or Specs might be a wolf.

From my perspective if neither TZP or Specs are a wolf, then the wolves are you and Xiao. If one of TZP or Specs is a wolf, I think it's much more likely to be Specs, leaving the remaining wolf between you and Xiao. Of you and Xiao, I think it's much more likely for it to be you than Xiao.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

My issue with this: the private message recipient will have the opportunity to mess with things. My suggestion is both TZP and I message 2 people their colors. That way we have two people verifying the results.

What do you all think?

If the PM recipient messes with things then that will basically guarantee out them as a wolf. Messaging 2 people instead of 1 would be fine, but to propose an alternative:
1. You and TZP claim to someone.
2. That person confirms receiving both PMs.
3. You and TZP claim your color publicly.
4. Person confirms that it matches what you sent them.

These steps could also work with 2 people instead of 1.

Here is what I suggest. Both TZP and I PM two players (BDS and Xiao?) and reveal our colors. They can independently report back. If the TZP and my colors mismatch, we know we have shenanigans. I left Oricorio out of this just because he has the positive hit on him, but if anyone objects to the choice of BDS and Xiao, let us know.

I don't necessarily think knowing the colors helps the humans or wolves a whole lot at this point, but I think this is a good plan to mostly confirm that TZP and I are legit seers.

I'll wait to hear back from TZP before I send anything.

That's a fine enough plan as long as you and TZP both agree on what you're doing.

In my defense, the N2 seer activation was a later revision to the game rules. I agree that it's not the best look, but it was an oversight on my end.

Fair enough. Not really something I can prove or disprove either way, more of an interesting discrepancy I noticed after you first claimed to me.

As far as Xiao being a lynch candidate:

It wouldn't surprise me if town!Xiao was burned or chilled N2, for similar reasons to why I think THC was killed N1; the strong consensus seemed to be that Xiao was town aligned, probably the most so of anyone. This would make him less likely to be lynched D2, and thus I could see him being targeted on N1 by wolves to build their vote manipulation power. It would not have shocked me if Xiao was killed N2 for that reason.

I didn't quite think of that before but I like the observation (especially considering Xiao was one of my fake suggestions for targets to TZP).

Although the wolves aren't a team (though I believe there is at least a decent chance they might have found each other by now and I wouldn't take that possibility for granted), the fact that they can work together means they're still incentivized to push a lynch on town. Ultimately, that means it's likely 40% of the players here (50% of the other living players from a town perspective) are still likely pushing a vote that they think will be bad for town, so keep that in mind before pushing something as "consensus".

Assuming the wolves found each other by the start of Day 2 and not the night prior, they know who each other targeted and they probably know who they need to lynch today to win. If they found each other Night 2 then they probably coordinated their targets to people who were least likely to be lynched anyway.

I personally don't think the wolves have found each other yet, but it's something to keep in mind in case they have.

Can town still win after two mislynches in a row? The answer is yes, but only if wolves cross marked each other N2 or if we mislynch a marked townie, the other person marked is a wolf, and the remaining wolf gets marked N3. Otherwise, if we mislynch today you better pray N1P2 is a wolf.

In a game like this I think it's best to assume we need to lynch a wolf today.

[mastersuperfan]

Apparent votecount: (because I forgot earlier)
- Oricorio: 1 (Xiao)

[mastersuperfan]

Open to considering another 24-hour phase extension if anyone would like one, but I don't want to prolong the game too much if it's going to wear down on people (and I don't want an extension to influence the game in a way that isn't fun / unfairly disadvantages one side or another). Feel free to PM me whether you'd prefer or not prefer another phase extension.

For the time being assume that the phase ends as currently scheduled (as I'm currently inclined to keep it at, given the amount of discussion in the thread), but I'll see tomorrow morning. If anyone has circumstances that will make it difficult to engage with the game tomorrow before phase change, do let me know!

[davy]

TWC Post

MSF, wolves thrive on the pressure of time, so granting a phase extension this late in a day phase (especially one that from an outsider perspective could be a deciding one) would be extremely benificial to town and detrimental to wolves. While you as the host are allowed to make phases as long as you wish (as long as they meet the minimum length, of course), I would advice very strongly against rewarding a phase extension at this point.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Still waiting to hear from TZP, although it's still early in the States.

I thought I'd compile a suspicion list so far.

Moderate Wolf Lean

Oricorio: I'm going off the hard data point of a positive seer hit. Everything else is at least somewhat speculative at this point, but I can fall back on this. I'd hate to pass up on a positive seer check if there wasn't much to go off of besides speculation.

Slight Wolf Lean

Xiao: As I mentioned in a previous post, the fact that Xiao wasn't killed N2 makes me slightly suspicious, since he seemed to be easily the most town-read player. That alone wouldn't automatically make me lean wolf!Xiao, however. His vote for Oricorio soon after I revealed the seering does seem like wolfplay trying to hop on/create momentum for someone with suspicion. On one hand, Oricorio did suggest a Xiao lynching, so I understand some pushback, but the vote did appear a bit bandwagon-y to me.

Neutral Lean

TZP: Still waiting to hear back about the seering plan. Flat out not agreeing to/ignoring the plan would be extremely suspicion, but we're not there yet. The gambit offers little information to me. wolf!TZP could have easily fallen back on falsely claiming it was a reaction test, when in actuality it was a real attempt to partner with the other wolf (who was fairly certain to be alive). town!TZP could've played the gambit to find a wolf and gather information, and also claim it being a reaction test. Both possibilities seem realistic, and nobody played along with the plan. He's been pretty quiet D2, so I'll want to hear more thoughts.

Town Lean

BDS: I do agree that his reaction to TZP's gambit appears human. I also appreciate the push to reveal the seer colors, since it could catch a wolf faking seer. Not much else to report here. I'm not convinced that revealing colors at this point in the game benefits the wolves a whole lot. As the game progresses, a wolf-seer alliance loses value.

[mastersuperfan]

Acknowledged, davy.

Phase ends 11 hours from now.