TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[Oricorio]

Received an interesting message from TZP:

Sorry, but I'm not the other wolf. Turns out my plan paid off after all.

Also my great grandmother has left the hospital, so I should be fine on that front.

I mean, this is a stupid move if TZP really is wolf, as there's no way to confidently clear Xiao, BDS, and Specs

[Oricorio]

Come to think of it, maybe I should have played ball to gather more information. That would have damaged my credibility though. I mean, it could be a gambit to see how I'd react under the logic that if I out the message I'm town, but I have a meta of outing these kinds of things as wolf so what's the point?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Well, could be a gambit I guess. Anyone receive a similar message?

I received a similar message from TZP as well. I let Xiao know that someone claimed wolf to me and I was planning to string them along, and attempted to do so. I was planning to do an info drop sub-5 minutes before the end of the phase, as I've often taken to doing, in order to avoid potential wolf collaboration. But I suppose that option is already unnecessary with you revealing TZP's ruse.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also, glad to hear your great grandmother is doing better!!!

[Oricorio]

I received a similar message from TZP as well. I let Xiao know that someone claimed wolf to me and I was planning to string them along, and attempted to do so. I was planning to do an info drop sub-5 minutes before the end of the phase, as I've often taken to doing, in order to avoid potential wolf collaboration. But I suppose that option is already unnecessary with you revealing TZP's ruse.

If that's true, I'd say it doesn't tell us anything about TZP's alignment either way; w!TZP could use it to try to find the other wolf while maintaining plausible deniability that it was a gambit. Based on your message, it seems Xiao didn't get that message for whatever reason, so now we have to see if Specs got that message

[SpecsFlyer17]

I received the same message as well.

At the time, I saw it as a reaction test. Now that I see it was sent to other people, that seems true.

Even if he is a wolf, I don't think this adds any evidence for it.

[Oricorio]

So it's interesting why Xiao doesn't seem to have been sent this message (or either he or BDS is being deceptive)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I imagine that Xiao was offline, or otherwise preoccupied, by the time I sent my message. I never heard back from Xiao so that's what I assumed.

[Oricorio]

I imagine that Xiao was offline, or otherwise preoccupied, by the time I sent my message. I never heard back from Xiao so that's what I assumed.

Why did you send the message to Xiao over the others?

[Oricorio]

Anyway, I think as long as Xiao can provide receipts BDS is likely town here. If BDS is wolf, you don't really tell someone else if someone claims wolf privately to you, and if Xiao/BDS are w/w there's no need to even entertain TZP's gambit.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Why did you send the message to Xiao over the others?

Out of everyone other than TZP, I figured Xiao was most likely to be a human.

[mastersuperfan]

TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

Wolves:
1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).

Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.

The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.

Humans:
3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human

Special powers:

• Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
• Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.

If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.

Win conditions:

• The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Host clarifications:
- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.

---

Players:
1. Oricorio
2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo2
7. TheZeldaPianist

---

No one died last night. Hooray!

It is now Day 2. Day 2 ends in 48 hours, at 8:00:00 PM EDT on Monday, July 1st.

Seer result PMs:

Green

The temperature feels normal. [player name] is green.

[close]

Red

Is it just you, or is it hot in here...? [player name] is red.

[close]

Blue

You feel a chill in the air... [player name] is blue.

[close]

[Oricorio]

Alright, so we'll probably have to all be coordinated here. THC is cleared, N1P1 is likely town (and if not it doesn't matter), BDS also is likely town. That means we probably are dealing with 2 in TZP/Xiao/Specs.

[Oricorio]

Probably should also discuss whether we want seers to out. If we lynch incorrectly, we may not even get another day. Just keep in mind that it's entirely possible that THC was a seer.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm in favor of seers claiming as well as sharing results. Even if THC was a seer, simply having a wolf bluffing can give us info, especially considering one of the seers has a chance to be a wolf anyway.