TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[XiaoMigros]

Though its ironic that we two are the only ones who've done a proper tierlist so far

[SpecsFlyer17]

Since I started playing NSM TWG, there has been a trend of mislynches based on false suspicions. I think it's gotten better recently though. However, given there were no powers N1, we don't really have any factual evidence to act upon today.

Xiao: I still disagree with your take on me thinking that a seer should claim with color after a hit is a bad idea, mainly because by D2, the game may already be approaching the end. Agree to disagree, I guess. Your vote on TZP falls in line with your early suspicion list, and you did call out BDS and Oricorio for conveniently also being suspicious of the same people.

TZP: People are getting onto you for your opinions about the double THC wolfing. I don't find your take on it particularly wolfy, just more so an alternate explanation of what happened. I'm not sure how your take would even be something a wolf would say/push. I don't love playing the meta game, but you do seem slightly more active than you usual are.

Oricorio: I really don't love the accusation of TZP and myself based on previous THC alliances. Feels like a weak grasp at straws. That being said, your early posts, while fairly mechanical in nature, do seem town-oriented.

BDS: Honestly not a lot of reads here from me. Curious why Oricorio moved up on his suspicion list.

N1P2: Your most recent post about taking a backseat is either genuine or a really sly attempt to play the emotional card to reduce suspicion. I wouldn't put it past a clever wolf to say something like that to appear innocent and deter anyone from voting for them. Just speculation.

N1P2 for now. Going to reread the discussion about THCs wolfing in the morning.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

BDS:

Spoiler

After the assassin game, it'll definitely be interesting to see another game where the wolves are (kinda) pitted against each other.

This goes without saying, but we definitely have to be more careful and be sure that we're all on the same page when it comes to the lynch. With vote manipulation shenanigans going on we could very well end up in a situation where the person the majority of people are voting for isn't the person who ends up getting lynched.

Standard senior player opener re: general town strategy. Not alignment indicative in either direction.

So we're back at square one

I imagine that if one of the wolves got a seer power and seers someone the opposite color, they might be more inclined to try to leak the knowledge publicly, but otherwise I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing for a human seer to reveal their seering, especially if the person they seered is already suspected. It could very well be the deciding factor toward lynching someone versus not.

More insightful post about what a seerwolf strategy might be and how it might dovetail with human strategy depending on game state. I agree that seer results could prove useful but that revealing them is somewhat situation-dependent.

If I'm understanding things correctly, you'd have to be double seered green to be confirmed human. Considering that, I think there's still a potential reason to reveal colors.

By "double seered," I mean both seers would have to seer you at the same time. I think it's a viable strategy, albeit risky, to try and get the seers to coordinate seerings—it just depends on whether or not the wolves themselves are able to coordinate rather than fully playing against each other, or whether we even wanna take that risk in the first place or just leave the seers to their own devices.

I think this post reads like standard human!BDS to me--it's pretty common for him to float best-case-scenario strategies in the early game and use that to lead discussion.

Surprisingly, I think it's a good thing that there was a wolfing instead of vote reduction. Unless THC was a seer, we still have all our resources available to us.

I also think that this was just an interesting coincidence, and not the wolves intentionally teaming up—something like that would be very difficult to accomplish randomly, unless one of the wolves made an "obvious" intentional slip publicly to signal to the other wolf that we're all somehow missing.

The question is, who might independently arrive at the idea of reducing THC's vote? I'm going to be busy with something else in a little bit, but later I'm gonna go back through some of the revival games where THC was wolfed to try and deduce who might already be inclined toward wolfing him.

I'm guessing neither wolf expected the other to go for THC. This wolfing could've accidentally been an information jackpot for us.

It's a somewhat bold claim to say, in such a small game, that losing a human is a more than fair trade for a more informed D1. As I've already said, I agree with BDS on this, but as far as ISO analysis goes, I don't know if a wolf, surprised by the THC kill would say this--he might rather wait to gauge public feeling before opining. I think this string of posts makes BDS my strongest human lean right now.

So,
- THC was killed N1 in TWG CXV, but that doesn't really count because of the number picking gimmick.
- THC was wolfed in TWG CXVI by Specs, but there's also extenuating circumstances there because of the nature of the assassin game.
- THC was confirmed human in TWG CXVIII and wolfed as a result. Also doesn't tell us anything.
- THC was wolfed N1 in TWG CXIX by TZP and Toby.

End results, not especially conclusive, but based on basic PoE and how few players are in the game (1/3 of the remaining players are wolves), I think it's reasonably likely to guess that there's probably at least one wolf between Specs and TZP. Of course, we're assuming that one or both wolves didn't just pick their targets randomly, which (correct me if I'm wrong), TZP has done for wolfing picks in the past??

This doesn't make sense to me, though. I don't think I've ever before heard the logic of "Player X wolfed player Y in a previous game so he's likely to do that again." Process of elimination doesn't really make sense in this context?

Also fyi, I used random.org for the first wolfing in the first revival game sort of on a whim since it had been several years since I played, and I have not used it since.

I'm just judging by looking at who might be more likely to pick THC as a wolfing based on wolfings in prior games ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And it's a very loose read regardless.
That's an interesting point. Do you think they would've picked THC assuming he'd be less likely to be lynched?

I missed this earlier, sorry to ignore. I think this is one plausible reason for sure, but I think that (if we're continuing with the assumption that the goal of this wolfing was to disguise the vote manipulation rather than to kill a player immediately) sowing confusion in the voting during the day was probably the primary draw, since it can be *really* tough to predict who's going to get lynched--how many games in the last year have had day phases where someone gets offed and it's a complete surprise because it happened in the last 20 minutes of the phase? I don't mean this in a negative way at all, but it would be consistent with things you and Oricorio have said in the past to both assume that you were the target of a halved vote, and it's possible a wolf could have picked THC instead to keep everyone on their toes.

Right now, the only two players I feel comfortable voting for are Specs and Oricorio. I'm hoping to hear more from both Oricorio and N1P2 as well before I place my vote.

Xiao's behavior feels pretty standard so far, and I think TZP's posts give enough of a human lean (actually feel solve-y but not domineering of the conversation) to where I don't want to lynch him today.

Can you say more about Specs and Oricorio? I actually disagree that Xiao's behavior has been standard (first player to clock a vote? I'll get to that in a later post) and I'm curious why the other two are higher up your list.

[close]

Also, I reread my previous post and wanted to clarify my last point. Oricorio is an aggressive player who typically makes airtight cases. I don't think that coming up blank and gesturing weakly at me and Specs reads like a wolf trying to seed a discussion at all—more like a human without strong feelings who nevertheless wants to opine a little bit.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

THC:

Spoiler

Sorry, I spent all day yesterday cleaning out my room, this is the first chance I've even had to get on the forums since the game started.

I did want to clarify with @mastersuperfan, does the Sear see the Ice Wolf as green (and vice-versa with the Icier and Fire Wolf)? The wording has me a little confused. I have some thoughts on the seer situation, but it really depends on this.

Hm... Sounds like the seer results wouldn't be super useful then. I can only think of one way that would have a highly increased chance, though not 100%, of finding a wolf, and it would still require a lot of luck. I won't say it here just because bringing attention to it could give the wolves the easy answer to combatting it. I think the fact that it takes both wolves to kill someone is definitely going to our benefit here, as it will help elongate the game so we can get more info.

I wanted to do a post on THC as well even though he's guaranteed human, because we've been talking like he was probably wolfed because he was the last player to the game/because he'd be a sleeper pick for vote halving, but his two posts while he was alive are thoughtful. It sounds like he had an idea that he might have been willing to go public with once the seer results had been received and N2 was over--this could totally be why he was targeted as well.

Also he makes a good point that despite the small size, the game could last a while, since when one wolf is dead, any human at full health can't be killed during the night at all (!)

[close]

[Nana1Popo2]

I hope there will be more chatter today because tomorrow I will be at work when the day shift changes. I will likely pick a vote for someone tonight in the likely event I forget to post in time tomorrow.

Interested to hear more of your analysis, TZP.

Also Specs, if you post again in the morning.

[mastersuperfan]

Votecount:
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- N1P2: 1 (Specs)

[mastersuperfan]

24 hours left in Day 1, for real this time!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

BDS: Honestly not a lot of reads here from me. Curious why Oricorio moved up on his suspicion list.

It's more process of elimination than strictly suspicion on Oricorio. As I touched at, I feel like Xiao and TZP are more on the human end of things, N1P2's more of a blank, and I already mentioned why I have my eye on you.

N1P2: Your most recent post about taking a backseat is either genuine or a really sly attempt to play the emotional card to reduce suspicion. I wouldn't put it past a clever wolf to say something like that to appear innocent and deter anyone from voting for them. Just speculation.

Interesting point as well. I did find it a bit weird how he popped in right after I brought up wanting to hear more from him, but I just chalked it up to him feeling more comfortable in a lurking role than someone making wallposts all the time. In other words, he's been around this whole time but unsure about how to step in.

It's a somewhat bold claim to say, in such a small game, that losing a human is a more than fair trade for a more informed D1.

To build on this mention, I feel like a wolf would likely prefer to have two half-votes running around, even if they don't know who one of those was.

This doesn't make sense to me, though. I don't think I've ever before heard the logic of "Player X wolfed player Y in a previous game so he's likely to do that again." Process of elimination doesn't really make sense in this context?

Fair, and like it said it was a weak thread, but in a game like this where we don't have a lot to work with I figured it didn't hurt to give it a look and see if it dredged up any results. In the past, at least pre-revival, I feel like similar logic has been employed before (e.g. "player X as a wolf might be more likely to wolf player Y because player Y is good at picking up on wolf!player X"), but I may just be misremembering.

Also fyi, I used random.org for the first wolfing in the first revival game sort of on a whim since it had been several years since I played, and I have not used it since.

Good to know

I missed this earlier, sorry to ignore. I think this is one plausible reason for sure, but I think that (if we're continuing with the assumption that the goal of this wolfing was to disguise the vote manipulation rather than to kill a player immediately) sowing confusion in the voting during the day was probably the primary draw, since it can be *really* tough to predict who's going to get lynched--how many games in the last year have had day phases where someone gets offed and it's a complete surprise because it happened in the last 20 minutes of the phase? I don't mean this in a negative way at all, but it would be consistent with things you and Oricorio have said in the past to both assume that you were the target of a halved vote, and it's possible a wolf could have picked THC instead to keep everyone on their toes.

The key thing to remember is that it only takes one wolf having that logic for THC to have died; the other wolf could entirely have had a different set of logic for picking THC. I like the reasoning though.

Can you say more about Specs and Oricorio? I actually disagree that Xiao's behavior has been standard (first player to clock a vote? I'll get to that in a later post) and I'm curious why the other two are higher up your list.

Already touched on above, especially re:Oricorio, but between you and Specs (the two weak threads I identified earlier) I feel like you've been more human of the two. Definitely interested to see what you have to say about Xiao though, and we'll see if it changes my mind at all.

[Oricorio]

Also, I reread my previous post and wanted to clarify my last point. Oricorio is an aggressive player who typically makes airtight cases. I don't think that coming up blank and gesturing weakly at me and Specs reads like a wolf trying to seed a discussion at all—more like a human without strong feelings who nevertheless wants to opine a little bit.

My great grandmother had a seizure shortly after this game started; she's been in the hospital for the past couple of days. She'll likely be alright but the situation is still stressful, hence why it's been difficult for me to focus on this game.

I'll clarify a couple of my points: it is unlikely that the targeting of THC was a random decision, and since we have information like that we should take advantage. Little had happened by that point, it's not as if THC had pushed major suspicions that would give people an incentive to off him, so it's mainly past games that we have to go off of. We do have a bit more to work with now in terms of reads, but I don't think you can particularly fault me for an uncofident case when we had little to work with.

[XiaoMigros]

BDS

This seems to make sense, thanks for writing

[XiaoMigros]

My great grandmother had a seizure shortly after this game started; she's been in the hospital for the past couple of days. She'll likely be alright but the situation is still stressful, hence why it's been difficult for me to focus on this game.

I hope she will be okay and you can take the time you need 

[Oricorio]

Let's look over some of the readslists we have gotten:

time to make a list! please bare in mind its 2 am

TZP
They have seemed noticeably more focused on revealing some seer informations than other players. Also their insights have only been marginally helpful and not as meaningful as I've come to expect from town!TZP

Specs
Arguing for seers claiming particular colors is not smart, especially given someone was just eliminated

Oricorio
Usual playstyle for now, but I'm hoping for more in-depth analyses to understand what's going on

BDS
Neutral, posts have mostly been on a meta level for now

N1P2
Please say more!!

Being the first, they get some points for proactivity, although I'm not sure how much that matters for what is effectively a solo wolf game. I'm pretty sure that Xiao called me out for supposedly sheeping their two wolfreads, but is this really a wolfread on Specs? It was written when there was little to go off of, so it falls into the "making content for the sake of making content" trap; not always a wolfy thing but "Please say more!!" is the definition of an empty "read"

I'll be so so honest, i tend to take a passenger seat role in these games! I think i've even mentioned that before.
The amount of deep dive y'all do is way beyond my mental capacity, but i do love joining along for the ride.

That being said, i will speak up if i have the right reason to do so! Maybe my flaw is I wait too long, because i want what i have to say to have substance and not just word vomit.

I'll go down the list of peeps and give my read on them, based solely on "listening" to everyone talk. I also have neither sent nor received any PM's.

Oricorio: I'm in agreement of the phrasing used by TZP, "I think Oricorio is maybe the most aggressive player in this lobby[...]". Perhaps trying to just snuff out information because they have seering power?
BDS: What I personally define as typical responsive behavior from what I remember from other games.
Specs: No true read, but it seems to have a bigger impact on other players here.

It appears that, for either some people here or in this game in general, getting a "town" read typically is given when giving heavy analysis and explanation into the social aspect of the game. As mentioned before, I lack this typically and perhaps that has always been my greatest weakness.
That being said, I will continue with the only shred of "something doesnt feel right" in my analysis.
TZP: It's only one paragraph, but it still gives me a weird feeling of how off-brand the decision may be from the wolves' perspective. It's only a hunch and I dont have much else. I appreciate the dive on Ori as it has assisted in forming my own opinion on them.
Xiao: Human lean; appreciate the effort in contributing to the game in a timely manner with the only vote so far, and the respect to say that it was primarily timing that it happened not necessarily the target.

TZP already seems to be a consensus wolf read; given that there are no partnered wolves, LHF seems an inadequate defense in this situation. BDS and Specs reads seem hedgy. Seems to townread Xiao for being the one to push the game forward, which I would get in another game but I don't see why wolves wouldn't want to push the game forward here.

Since I started playing NSM TWG, there has been a trend of mislynches based on false suspicions. I think it's gotten better recently though. However, given there were no powers N1, we don't really have any factual evidence to act upon today.

Xiao: I still disagree with your take on me thinking that a seer should claim with color after a hit is a bad idea, mainly because by D2, the game may already be approaching the end. Agree to disagree, I guess. Your vote on TZP falls in line with your early suspicion list, and you did call out BDS and Oricorio for conveniently also being suspicious of the same people.

TZP: People are getting onto you for your opinions about the double THC wolfing. I don't find your take on it particularly wolfy, just more so an alternate explanation of what happened. I'm not sure how your take would even be something a wolf would say/push. I don't love playing the meta game, but you do seem slightly more active than you usual are.

Oricorio: I really don't love the accusation of TZP and myself based on previous THC alliances. Feels like a weak grasp at straws. That being said, your early posts, while fairly mechanical in nature, do seem town-oriented.

BDS: Honestly not a lot of reads here from me. Curious why Oricorio moved up on his suspicion list.

N1P2: Your most recent post about taking a backseat is either genuine or a really sly attempt to play the emotional card to reduce suspicion. I wouldn't put it past a clever wolf to say something like that to appear innocent and deter anyone from voting for them. Just speculation.

N1P2 for now. Going to reread the discussion about THCs wolfing in the morning.

Another non-read of BDS, hedgy on Xiao and TZP. Push on N1P1 is a little weak, calling it "Just speculation". The read on me is a bit of a hedge as well, calling me town but setting it up in such a way that the read can be easily flipped on a dime. This whole thing feels a bit contrived, so SpecsFlyer17

[Oricorio]

It's interesting that everyone is hedging on BDS; for better or worse people usually have strong opinions on his alignment. His posts here haven't really stood out to me either.

[Nana1Popo2]

Oricorio, take the time you need! Hope everything does end up okay.

Can you also explain what LHF is?

[mastersuperfan]

My great grandmother had a seizure shortly after this game started; she's been in the hospital for the past couple of days. She'll likely be alright but the situation is still stressful, hence why it's been difficult for me to focus on this game.

Sorry to hear that, and hope you and your great grandmother are doing okay :< If you'd like more time in the phase yet, just let me know and I think everyone else would understand.

Votecount:
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- N1P2: 1 (Specs)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)