TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[Oricorio]

So, it's 4-1-1. If we lynch a wolf today, D2 will be 3.5-1, mislynching D2 will make D3 2-1, which is basically LyLo. So, for the best case scenario, we have only one mislynch. Mislynching today would make it 3-1-1, which if wolves don't crossfire is 2-1-1, a very bad situation for town. So, we don't really have any room for error today. If one wolf crossfires it'll be 2.5-1-.5 (1 vote advantage for town) and if they both cross it's 3-.5-.5 (2 vote advantage), but we can't depend on those happening.

Yeah, I received nothing so far. Part of me discussing a w-w alliance earlier was to see if anyone was bold enough to approach me in PMs, but no one took the bait. We probably will need some behind the scenes cooperation to outmaneuver the wolves.

There has to be a reason why THC was double-targeted, and it doesn't seem to have anything to do with their posts in the thread, as it's basically just mechanical stuff that had to be taken back after clarifications from the host. Based on past games, t!THC is mainly a threat to wolves from their alliances with other players (TZP in Grinch and MSF in True Love), so maybe that's part of the reason? Might want to look at TZP and Specs a little closer

[BlackDragonSlayer]

So,
- THC was killed N1 in TWG CXV, but that doesn't really count because of the number picking gimmick.
- THC was wolfed in TWG CXVI by Specs, but there's also extenuating circumstances there because of the nature of the assassin game.
- THC was confirmed human in TWG CXVIII and wolfed as a result. Also doesn't tell us anything.
- THC was wolfed N1 in TWG CXIX by TZP and Toby.

End results, not especially conclusive, but based on basic PoE and how few players are in the game (1/3 of the remaining players are wolves), I think it's reasonably likely to guess that there's probably at least one wolf between Specs and TZP. Of course, we're assuming that one or both wolves didn't just pick their targets randomly, which (correct me if I'm wrong), TZP has done for wolfing picks in the past??

[XiaoMigros]

Surprisingly, I think it's a good thing that there was a wolfing instead of vote reduction.

Well a 1 in 6 chance it was random isn't super reassuring, even if teaming up is more unlikely

[XiaoMigros]

Also its funny specs and tzp are on top of my list... is that why BDS and Oricorio are going after them

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I'm with BDS, I actually think this is an optimal result—completely trustworthy info is a fair trade for a gimmick-free N1 wolfing. (Not so much for THC though. RIP.) I also doubt that the wolves found each other. It's not that it's impossible that the wolves coordinated, it's just that that's a unicorn-rarity play to happen N1, and it doesn't seem like much if any PM communication has happened so far (I personally have not been messaging anyone either).

I disagree that it was likely to be an RNG kill, though. My guess for why it happened: each wolf thought that, because a wolfing couldn't be guaranteed to kill someone, the best course of action was to play mindgames with the voting power and burn/chill someone unexpected. THC, as a player who had barely shown up, would be an ideal candidate to bank a burn/chill and keep the more active players thinking their votes were less powerful than they were.

[SpecsFlyer17]

At first glance Oricorio's math about mislyches checks out to me. Either way, we don't have a whole lot of wiggle room.

Today's lynch doesn't really have any possible curveballs since the seers don't work until N2, but we do know a few basic facts. Everyone has a full vote, and 2/6 of the remaining players are wolves.

The only additional "data" we could gather is if the seers claimed. Obviously this runs the risk of counterclaims and fakeclaims, but in a perfect world, removing them from the pool of votes gives a 2/4 chance of getting a wolf.

[XiaoMigros]

I disagree that it was likely to be an RNG kill, though.

Oh yeah, I doubt it was entirely random, my point was more that the wolves probably (hopefully) don't know who eachother are yet

[TheZeldaPianist275]

The only additional "data" we could gather is if the seers claimed. Obviously this runs the risk of counterclaims and fakeclaims, but in a perfect world, removing them from the pool of votes gives a 2/4 chance of getting a wolf.

It doesn't even do that much, since wolves can be seers. I don't think seers should claim unless there's a good reason to (positive result, about to be lynched, etc.) and maybe not even then.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also its funny specs and tzp are on top of my list... is that why BDS and Oricorio are going after them

I'm just judging by looking at who might be more likely to pick THC as a wolfing based on wolfings in prior games ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And it's a very loose read regardless.

I disagree that it was likely to be an RNG kill, though. My guess for why it happened: each wolf thought that, because a wolfing couldn't be guaranteed to kill someone, the best course of action was to play mindgames with the voting power and burn/chill someone unexpected. THC, as a player who had barely shown up, would be an ideal candidate to bank a burn/chill and keep the more active players thinking their votes were less powerful than they were.

That's an interesting point. Do you think they would've picked THC assuming he'd be less likely to be lynched?

[XiaoMigros]

I disagree with that analysis, I don't think it makes sense for wolves to target the less active towns under the current circumstances. I vote TZP

[mastersuperfan]

24 hours left in Day 1!

Votecount:
TZP: 1 (Xiao)

Due to the lack of voting activity in the thread, I am willing to grant a 24-hour phase extension if a majority of living players agree.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I disagree with that analysis, I don't think it makes sense for wolves to target the less active towns under the current circumstances. I vote TZP

THC typically starts out inactive (often because he's busy or hasn't realized the game has started yet) then gets more active as the game goes on. It's possible the wolves picked him because they were expecting him to be alive later in the game.

[Nana1Popo2]

I agree, msf.

Thoughts so far are it's tough to read anyone when all we do is speculate haha.
I don't mind the no non-lynch days because it certainly provides movement through the game, but it really is tough to point a finger even if justto point one.

[Nana1Popo2]

I disagree with that analysis, I don't think it makes sense for wolves to target the less active towns under the current circumstances. I vote TZP

Is your vote for the sake of starting a vote count because none of us have voted?
To be frank, I did think TZP's analysis was oddly creatively-specific, but perhaps that's because they have more experience in TWG than I do... Does that warrant a vote already? Not that experience matters all the time, nor do I like to think outside the game (it gets confusing to me), but seeing that BDS posted about previous THC game history, idk.

[Oricorio]

I agree with the extension. Sorry for the inactivity, I was dealing with a family emergency.