TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I'm heading out into the sticks for a hike right now and won't be back for several hours, but I should be able to clock in one more time after that. I'm gonna vote Xiao for now. Subject to change. Specs, something I'd be curious to hear from you while I'm gone: in each of the three worlds from your perspective (wolf!TZP, wolf!Xiao, wolf!BDS) who do you think each of us would be most likely to paint last night?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Specs, do you think there's any chance BDS is red wolf

If he is, we have two wolves alive right now.

If red-wolf!BDS exists, he probably painted you red. TZP wouldn't seer himself, and I doubt I was considered much for being a seer target. However, TZP said he red-seer'd you green last night.

So, if BDS is the red wolf, I think TZP is the blue wolf. Not a good spot to be in, and I'd wager the town has lost by now if that's the case.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I agree these are the logical lynch candidates based on how the events have unfolded

Also, why frame it this way Xiao? I've read BDS as human all game, but he hasn't done anything to truly clear himself. Why is he on par with Specs as someone above reproach for this phase?

[mastersuperfan]

6 hours left in Day 3!

Apparent votecount:
- Xiao: 2 (BDS, TZP)
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)

Not voted: Specs

[XiaoMigros]

Also, why frame it this way Xiao? I've read BDS as human all game, but he hasn't done anything to truly clear himself. Why is he on par with Specs as someone above reproach for this phase?

As you saw me ask Specs, I don't think it's certain. Ideally we get a wolf this phase and until now that being BDS hasn't seemed that likely.

[XiaoMigros]

I am open to changing my vote depending on how events unfold

[XiaoMigros]

TZP wouldn't seer himself, and I doubt I was considered much for being a seer target. However, TZP said he red-seer'd you green last night.

This gets human points

[SpecsFlyer17]

Specs, something I'd be curious to hear from you while I'm gone: in each of the three worlds from your perspective (wolf!TZP, wolf!Xiao, wolf!BDS) who do you think each of us would be most likely to paint last night?

My thoughts:
wolf!Xiao would probably paint TZP, given the talk of TZP being a wolf.
wolf!TZP would probably paint Xiao, given I've been pretty human leaning on BDS.
wolf!BDS I think would also paint TZP.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Specs

[mastersuperfan]

Apparent votecount:
- Xiao: 2 (BDS, TZP)
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- Specs: 1 (Specs)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

My thoughts:
wolf!Xiao would probably paint TZP, given the talk of TZP being a wolf.
wolf!TZP would probably paint Xiao, given I've been pretty human leaning on BDS.
wolf!BDS I think would also paint TZP.

This seems pretty reasonable overall.

Unless you have anything else specific to ask me, I don't have anything to add at the moment. I keep trying to run through a bunch of different scenarios to try and make sense of things, but I keep reaching the same conclusion of "overall, I'm ok with leaving my vote where it is for now."

[mastersuperfan]

Less than 2 hours until the end of Day 3!

[XiaoMigros]

BDS

[mastersuperfan]

Apparent votecount:
- Xiao: 2 (BDS, TZP)
- Specs: 1 (Specs)
- BDS: 1 (Xiao)

[mastersuperfan]

TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

Wolves:
1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).

Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.

The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.

Humans:
3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human

Special powers:

• Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
• Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.

If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.

Win conditions:

• The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Host clarifications:
- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.

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Players:
1. Oricorio
2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo2
7. TheZeldaPianist

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XiaoMigros was lynched!

Since parity will be achieved by the end of the night, the game is called at this point, as per the rules.

Spoiler

The Ice Wolf wins.

[close]

Postgame thread up soon!