TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[XiaoMigros]

Thanks for the detailed writings!

[XiaoMigros]

Right now, I'd feeling led to vote either Xiao or TZP. Curious to hear more tomorrow. Fairly slow day today.

I agree these are the logical lynch candidates based on how the events have unfolded

[XiaoMigros]

We're probably going to have to lynch the wolf today to win.

I agree with this plan, anything else is stupid

[XiaoMigros]

TLDR: Overall a fairly inactive phase for TZP. Notably, he held off voting until the very end, and only voted when it appeared required for self-preservation. I'd argue this isn't behavior of someone who is trying to push an Oricorio vote.

On the other hand, if Oricorio was going to be lynched anyway, I can see TZP not wanting to be seen bandwagoning and not voting for that reason. Whether that's indicative of anything I don't know

[mastersuperfan]

(a little under) 24 hours left in Day 3!

Votecount: no votes, all by its lonely lonesome

Make sure to vote! If you do, you get one of these:



(if you don't vote, then you get one of these)

[TheZeldaPianist275]

A'ight, I'm going for broke here, but after mulling all the scenarios over I'm fairly certain you're not just pretending to lie about your seer results. I'm the fire wolf and I painted Xiao red last night so I know you're lying about your seer results. I didn't reduce anyone's vote last night because I figured that if Oricorio wasn't the ice wolf (which I'm pretty sure at this point he wasn't) it was too much of a risk to accidentally hit the other wolf.

If you're indeed the ice wolf and vote reduced anyone other than me, I'm pretty sure we've just won. If you had the same logic as me and didn't reduce anyone, then, well, we can work with that. I feel like Specs could be convinced to vote for Xiao without too much effort, especially if I'm the first one to lead the charge.

got this from BDS lol

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I read more as a genuine human gambit more than a wolf faking a human gambit, since BDS hasn't really been under scrutiny yet this phase

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Specs can, uh, verify that. It was worth a shot to potentially trip up blue wolf TZP.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

At this point I figure Xiao is more likely to be a wolf than TZP, and I think it's safe to say there's only one wolf left either way. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Xiao

[XiaoMigros]

See I had a feeling from the start it was TZP and either I'm right or BDS has played the most amazing game ever

[XiaoMigros]

But regardless it seems we will win, so GG??

[mastersuperfan]

Apparent votecount:
- Xiao: 1 (BDS)
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)

Not voted: Specs, TZP

[SpecsFlyer17]

Specs can, uh, verify that. It was worth a shot to potentially trip up blue wolf TZP.

Confirmed.

[XiaoMigros]

Specs, do you think there's any chance BDS is red wolf

[SpecsFlyer17]

I want to think about red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP for a bit. And see if that even makes sense.

First, I trust his red seer claim. No one counterclaimed, and no way would he risk fakeclaiming, banking on THC being the red seer. N1P2 explicitly did not claim seer.

This means he performed all 3 actions on Oricorio N2. But if you're trying to set up a Oricorio push, why also seer him? In hopes of find the red wolf and teaming up? That's a strange move if you reduced his vote. Furthermore, if I didn't find Oricorio's blue painting, then TZP has a green hit on Oricorio, which probably gets shared publicly. That doesn't help Oricorio get lynched.

Also, back to the insurance PM that TZP sent me late D2. "If I die, go after Xiao". Unless it's reverse-psychology, wolf!TZP shouldn't really care about what happens if he dies. If he dies, he loses. End of story. Especially with 3 minutes left in phase, this felt incredibly human.

Posting BDS' gambit publicly doesn't really prove much, as I think TZP knew it was a gambit.

TLDR, I'm not convinced the actions of red-seer,blue-wolf!TZP makes sense. Also, the Insurance PM felt very human.

Ninja'd by Xiao. I'll think about it.