TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[mastersuperfan]

TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

Wolves:
1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).

Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.

The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.

Humans:
3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human

Special powers:

• Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
• Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.

If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.

Win conditions:

• The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Host clarifications:
- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.

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Players:
1. Oricorio
2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo2
7. TheZeldaPianist


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Arctic Inferno Blast!



ThatHiddenCharacter was found dead in the night, suffering from a severe case of freezer burn.

It is now Day 1. Day 1 ends in 48 hours, at 8:00:00 PM EDT on Thursday, June 27th.

Some reminders for voting during the day phase:
- There are no instas.
- You may change your vote (including unvote), but no-lynch is not an option.
- Phantoms will be awarded for those without active votes at the end of the phase.
- Intermittent "apparent" vote counts (e.g. not including burn/chill effects) will be posted throughout the phase. Following the lynch, "true" vote counts (including burn/chill) will be revealed.

[XiaoMigros]

well that's not good...

[SpecsFlyer17]

Okay... so THC got chilled and burned last night. And everyone's at full strength voting.

[Oricorio]

THC is a strange target for the wolves to arrive at independently. This likely suggests that wolves are cooperating (that, or THC did something like claim seer to both wolves). At least we know that all our votes are worth the same.

[XiaoMigros]

time to make a list! please bare in mind its 2 am

TZP
They have seemed noticeably more focused on revealing some seer informations than other players. Also their insights have only been marginally helpful and not as meaningful as I've come to expect from town!TZP

Specs
Arguing for seers claiming particular colors is not smart, especially given someone was just eliminated

Oricorio
Usual playstyle for now, but I'm hoping for more in-depth analyses to understand what's going on

BDS
Neutral, posts have mostly been on a meta level for now

N1P2
Please say more!!

[XiaoMigros]

THC is a strange target for the wolves to arrive at independently. This likely suggests that wolves are cooperating (that, or THC did something like claim seer to both wolves). At least we know that all our votes are worth the same.

I agree it's a strange target. But the wolves already cooperating seems statistically unlikely (how did they find each other). Do you think THC managed to mess with them individually, or do you think they know each others identities? Or both?

[SpecsFlyer17]

THC is a strange target for the wolves to arrive at independently. This likely suggests that wolves are cooperating (that, or THC did something like claim seer to both wolves). At least we know that all our votes are worth the same.

Given that there was no public message, I find it unlikely that the wolves cooperated via shot in the dark PMs.

For what it's worth, I received no PMs from THC, so it's not like he claimed to everyone. He may have claimed to a select number of people, but that's an odd play. Back in the Grinch game, he made a PM play claiming something different to everyone alive. However, I got nothing from him N1.

[XiaoMigros]

I got nothing either

[SpecsFlyer17]

Specs Arguing for seers claiming particular colors is not smart, especially given someone was just eliminated

Maybe I should clear my stance up a bit.

Right now I'm not in favor of seers claiming a positive result without a color, mainly because it's a safe play against any legitimate counterclaim. If it's a fakeclaim, the real seers will likely assume it's just the other seer claiming.

I'm more open to the idea of seers claiming a positive result WITH a color, for two reasons. 1, if it's a fakeclaim and the real seer is alive, it will likely draw a counterclaim. 2, it reduces things to a 50/50, which isn't the best odds but it's better than nothing.

Xiao, where did I say that I wasn't in favor of seers claiming colors?

[XiaoMigros]

Xiao, where did I say that I wasn't in favor of seers claiming colors?

You didn't say that, which is what I called 'not smart'
Claiming a color is putting a target on your back.

[SpecsFlyer17]

1, if it's a fakeclaim and the real seer is alive, it will likely draw a counterclaim.

However, the catch with this is that a wolf may use it to bait a real seer into identifying themself. Wolf fakeclaims their respective seer, the real seer claims, and now the seer gets burned/chilled.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

well that's not good...

Okay... so THC got chilled and burned last night. And everyone's at full strength voting.

Surprisingly, I think it's a good thing that there was a wolfing instead of vote reduction. Unless THC was a seer, we still have all our resources available to us.

I also think that this was just an interesting coincidence, and not the wolves intentionally teaming up—something like that would be very difficult to accomplish randomly, unless one of the wolves made an "obvious" intentional slip publicly to signal to the other wolf that we're all somehow missing.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

The question is, who might independently arrive at the idea of reducing THC's vote? I'm going to be busy with something else in a little bit, but later I'm gonna go back through some of the revival games where THC was wolfed to try and deduce who might already be inclined toward wolfing him.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm guessing neither wolf expected the other to go for THC. This wolfing could've accidentally been an information jackpot for us.

[Nana1Popo2]

Hi! I am here and quickly reading through everything.
This is unlike me but I did forget multiple times I was playing this game (my fault, is not an excuse; especially a "i havent been paying attention so dont count me as sus" excuse)..

It is late where I am, and I work open shift until about 4 hrs before the phase change (ugh). I will do my absolute best to reply throughout the day tomorrow!!

Initial thoughts are yes, be wary of  seering claims this early and i believe it highly unlikely, if anything very lucky, that the wolves both found each other AND got THC. Lucky, because like mentioned already, everyone at full vote is an absolute certainty at this point.