TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[TheZeldaPianist275]

After reading this over, I'm not sure if it's enough to change my read on Xiao.

Yeah, I was initially suspicious because of the immediacy of the vote for me, but looking at posts in isolation I think Xiao is one of my stronger human reads. I'd probably say

1. BDS
2. Xiao
3. Specs
4. Oricorio
5. N1P2 (yes that's a vote)

3 and 4 are more or less interchangeable. I would like to hear what this PM conversation about Oricorio is before locking in anything final though.

[mastersuperfan]

3 hours left in Day 1!

Votecount:
- TZP: 2 (Xiao, N1P2)
- N1P2: 2 (Specs, TZP)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
- Oricorio: 1 (BDS)

[Nana1Popo2]

Quick reply is as quick reply does, as im on a quick break here.

I totally forgot i got that distinction at the end of whatever game that was LOL.

I can see how to you all that shakes things up for me. In general, as an overarching statement with both IRL mafia games and sometimes this one, i take that passenger seat.
I love being the one who jumps in and proves a point or proves someone wrong when it becomes clear to ME, but its hard to do with this game being as social and overthinking as it is.
If that makes a little sense. Now that im talking more, at this point im speaking my mind for the sake of speaking, rather than bringing you with any clear or direct evidence.

By the sounds of it i am thinking of changing my vote around by phase change—just need to make it to my next break to read what TZP said about Xiao a little better.

Also interested in more about Ori from BDS.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Going in order of playerlist, starting with Oricorio.

Spoiler

As I can tell, there are two main strategies the wolves can use: a wolf-wolf alliance and a wolf-Seer "alliance". The first is obvious, the wolves find each other via PM and coordinate their actions, leaving town little recourse but to act completely as a unit with even one defection potentially making the game unwinnable. Of course, that strategy would require a lot of risk for the wolves to initiate, so it's more likely we'll see the second strategy. As the seers are only a threat to one wolf each, it's advantageous for a wolf to find the seer that isn't a threat to them and use their results to control the narrative. In order to counter such a strategy, the two Seers need to be 100% coordinated. Of course, a wolf can be the seer, which carries its own problems.

This point seems innocuous enough, but if you wanna look at it under intense scrutiny, this could be wolfseer Oricorio trying to set the stage for an alliance with a human seer.

Yeah, I received nothing so far. Part of me discussing a w-w alliance earlier was to see if anyone was bold enough to approach me in PMs, but no one took the bait. We probably will need some behind the scenes cooperation to outmaneuver the wolves.

This context makes the above look a bit more favorable, however. Oricorio did comparable PM shenanigans in the alliance game so it wouldn't surprise me if he, as a human, tried to do a lite-version this time around.

...then again, wolf Oricorio could have been attempting the exact same thing.

THC is a strange target for the wolves to arrive at independently. This likely suggests that wolves are cooperating (that, or THC did something like claim seer to both wolves). At least we know that all our votes are worth the same.

On one hand, this post feels like a natural gut reaction (I was kinda surprised both wolves would pick THC at first), but after exploring all the possibilities I feel like it's still a bit weird to say that it's strange for both wolves could arrive at THC as their target independently. As I mentioned earlier, wolves could entirely have had different logic for picking THC, which still would've ended the same way.

There has to be a reason why THC was double-targeted, and it doesn't seem to have anything to do with their posts in the thread, as it's basically just mechanical stuff that had to be taken back after clarifications from the host. Based on past games, t!THC is mainly a threat to wolves from their alliances with other players (TZP in Grinch and MSF in True Love), so maybe that's part of the reason? Might want to look at TZP and Specs a little closer

I'll clarify a couple of my points: it is unlikely that the targeting of THC was a random decision, and since we have information like that we should take advantage. Little had happened by that point, it's not as if THC had pushed major suspicions that would give people an incentive to off him, so it's mainly past games that we have to go off of. We do have a bit more to work with now in terms of reads, but I don't think you can particularly fault me for an uncofident case when we had little to work with.

However, later on Oricorio himself does go into the possibilities of why both wolves could have independently picked THC.

It's interesting that everyone is hedging on BDS; for better or worse people usually have strong opinions on his alignment. His posts here haven't really stood out to me either.

I'm curious why Oricorio didn't mention the fact that TZP seems to be going heavy human read on me. I'm interested to see what he has to say about that; but overall, I do agree that it feels people have generally been hedging on me (though I can't blame them, as I myself have had a lot of uncertainty thus far too).

Overall opinion, mixed.

[close]

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Specs

Spoiler

My issue what that is it makes the seer role way easier to fake. If a wolf (or even a human) fakeclaims a vanilla seer, both seers can chalk it up to it being the other seer.
 
If someone fakeclaims a color seer, the real seer will know that it's fake.

Whether or not to reveal the seers at some point (or even how to go about it) was definitely a contentious issue earlier in the game, and it's good to see that Specs at least appeared to be concerned about people fakeclaiming seer.

Many of Specs' posts from here until the next quote are about either the seers claiming or THC wolfing.

N1P2: Your most recent post about taking a backseat is either genuine or a really sly attempt to play the emotional card to reduce suspicion. I wouldn't put it past a clever wolf to say something like that to appear innocent and deter anyone from voting for them. Just speculation.

N1P2 for now. Going to reread the discussion about THCs wolfing in the morning.

Specs' vote on N1P2 was the first vote on N1P2, so points for actually pushing what at the time didn't seem like something that would be a popular lynch.

A wolf may also have taken a simpler approach going for the same result: wolf someone somewhat inactive, or at least not making splashes that could be dissected. THC actually had some solid posts N1. On the other hand, N1P2 only had an off-topic fun opening post N1. N1P2 would have been the easy target for this theory, but he was spared. Therefore, I think wolf!N1P2 fits this theory the best- wolfing the most inactive player in hopes that they won't be lynched D1.

Builds on that suspicion in the context of why a wolf might have picked THC. It's an interesting point—N1P2 and THC both getting their votes reduced to 0.5 would've been a valid strategy for wolves if they were hoping to reduce the votes of people likely to live until late game, and N1P2 being one of the wolves makes it less likely for him to have been picked, which in turn makes it more likely for THC to be double picked and thus wolfed.

Overall, also sort of mixed. If Specs is a wolf he definitely seems to be gunning for the other wolf right out of the gate. If that's the case, his genuine interest in wolf hunting could work in our favor. On the other hand, if he's a human, it almost feels like he's trying to make himself a target for the wolves with some "unintentional" slips and misunderstandings he's made, that make it looks as if he's trying to hide something (and at the same time, those statements can make humans scratch their heads a bit, like how TZP picked apart Specs' posts).

[close]

[BlackDragonSlayer]

No spoilers necessary for Xiao, as this will be super abridged.

Xiao tends to make a lot of short, concise posts, often stating an opinion that (seemingly, or mildly at least) goes against the grain. Even Xiao's suspicion list follows that formula despite seeming like more of a wallpost at first glance. I'd like to think my Xiao radar has been fairly accurate thus far, but as we haven't seen wolf Xiao yet, I can't say I've ever had the chance to be wrong about Xiao in recent games (there's always a first! ). Overall seems fairly natural and typical for Xiao. Xiao also does seem concerned about the seers becoming wolf targets (but, as was mentioned by Oricorio early in the game, would a wolf want to kill the seer that's not a threat to them?).

Unfortunately other than that there's not a lot to say. Generally human.

One more thing though now that I'm going over Xiao's posts a second time. This post was in response to speculation as to why THC might have been wolfed.

I disagree with that analysis, I don't think it makes sense for wolves to target the less active towns under the current circumstances.

What's your take on why each wolf may have picked THC independently?

[mastersuperfan]

Day 1 ends in 1 hour! Finalize those votes!

Votecount:
- TZP: 2 (Xiao, N1P2)
- N1P2: 2 (Specs, TZP)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
- Oricorio: 1 (BDS)

Votecount is unchanged.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

N1P2

Spoiler

Hi! I am here and quickly reading through everything.
This is unlike me but I did forget multiple times I was playing this game (my fault, is not an excuse; especially a "i havent been paying attention so dont count me as sus" excuse)..

It is late where I am, and I work open shift until about 4 hrs before the phase change (ugh). I will do my absolute best to reply throughout the day tomorrow!!

Maybe my flaw is I wait too long, because i want what i have to say to have substance and not just word vomit.

Taking these two posts into context together, I could definitely get the impression that N1P2 is just being a bit scatterbrained (happens to us all at some point) and semi-inactive but trying to catch up and contribute. In the suspicion list though, it's a bit weird how N1P2 specifically speculates that Oricorio might be a seer; just feels a bit out of place.

Is your vote for the sake of starting a vote count because none of us have voted?
To be frank, I did think TZP's analysis was oddly creatively-specific, but perhaps that's because they have more experience in TWG than I do... Does that warrant a vote already? Not that experience matters all the time, nor do I like to think outside the game (it gets confusing to me), but seeing that BDS posted about previous THC game history, idk.

Seems hesitant toward Xiao's vote of TZP but backs Xiao's TZP vote later based on a hunch. While I get the uncertainty this early in a game like this, it almost feels more like trying to solidly steer the lynch away from himself by providing a tempting target (possibly for the other wolf to jump on and potentially get called out on later). If N1P2 is a wolf I could definitely see him wanting and trying to get rid of the other wolf early.

Feels a little jumpy but could just be real life interference making it hard to post and get in a good headspace to properly sort through the game.

Interested to see if N1P2 ends up changing his vote later as he said he might. For the time being though, I am inclined to change my vote to N1P2 if nothing else changes.

[close]

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm gonna be hella lazy in regards to TZP and just say that his posts have been dense with analysis and bringing in new perspectives. Even if he is a wolf I am extremely hesitant to want to lynch him today because I feel like that energy could be genuinely helpful into actually lynching one of the wolves, which could give us more wiggle room.

In a more broad sense, it's entirely possible that, like in the assassin game, the wolves could be treating this game as wolf vs. wolf with the humans as a distraction and tool to eliminate the other wolf. With the possibility (albeit slim from what I can gather) of the two wolves winning together, I figure they'd treat it more as an option if things turn out that way rather than something they're deliberately aiming for in the first place.

[Nana1Popo2]

Oh boy ok i gotta post my thoughts asap because i just got on my lunch ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ

[SpecsFlyer17]

Going to stick with N1P2 for reasons outlined in previous posts. I realize it's currently a KitB, but I don't think I can vote for TZP just to avoid it. He's the only vote swap on my end that would avoid a KitB.

[Oricorio]

I'm back for now.

If either TZP or N1P2 is a seer they should claim now.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Voting for N1P2 to break the KitB.

[mastersuperfan]

Votecount:
- N1P2: 3 (Specs, TZP, BDS)
- TZP: 2 (Xiao, N1P2)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)

[Nana1Popo2]

Before reading back on posts to actually formulate proper responses, i feel like this game has become something where, from my perspective, situations out of my control have led to a couple folks narrowing down a choice to pick me. When i havent necessarily contributed to those reasons at all—more like a process of elimination so to speak.

Either extremely coincidental or it has become quite favorable for the wolves to jump on in.

When the game concludes i will likely inquire as to how you all do it when it comes to earning your place as town, because i feel like i havent contributed much (no outside PMs, no one else claiming). Definitely different from other TWG ive played in the past.

Oh also the meta-gaming side where you compare players to other games as a sort of citation, is very much out of my wheelhouse because i play this game for how it is; should i be reading that far into people?

Well, as time is running out, im glad BDS can get a sense for a little of this as i definitely am around to play and type when barely anyone else is, then am busy and tight on time when all the posts come flooding in..

If its any consolation as i dont doubt i will likely be lynched here, i appreciate the heavy analysis and breakdowns from TZP. Something i do not have the energy to do; especially, like i said before, if it involves "thinking of other games" because it has been months since i last played...
I wasnt strong on my vote for them, but will likely change due to other strong suspicions im picking up from BDS and TZP.

I will be frank, my inactivity and lack of lengthy explanation probably puts a target on my back more than i believe to see as fair, but at the same time everyone here plays the game way more often than i do. I get it..

As much as i would like to deep dive, time has gotten away from me and i will change my vote to Oricorio.
I thought them to be seer earlier primarily because their posts seemed like they were looking for info, thats it just a hunch. TZP has earned apass for now in my book because their thought process seems similar enough to mine on reads.

I have so little to go off this game, because it feels like nothing has happened for me haha. Perhaps this is why i dont play too often, idk. x)