TWG CXXI: True Love Game Thread

[mastersuperfan]

I woke up earlier than expected.

in the interest of making it visible (and of updating the presented state of affairs slightly after seeing nobody came back yesterday), I'm going to repost what I sennt to THC below. feel free to skip reading the spoiler-tagged part of THC's post, which is mostly just copied below.

--

sorry for causing a bit of a stir. full explanation below:

I have, and have had, no intention of lynching raeko today. this was a reaction test. I told my plan to THC in advance at the beginning of d2, along with my post-d1 suslist:

PMs to THC

I'm going to maintain my trust in you. I have a really hard time seeing you paired with anyone as a wolf — not Specs or Toby, because you voted them at the end and contributed to the kitb; and probably not raeko, BDS, or TZP, because you seemed intent to vote them earlier. it could be a distancing play by you where you voted them but planned to change your mind before vote end, but the vote hopping (which we both did) seems moderately elaborate to devise as a wolf, and I think a wolf would be more scared of coming under fire for seeming inconsistent or throwing their vote around so much. it'd also be risky to place a temp vote on raeko or BDS if that could have been the catalyst for a wagon or an insta (and for BDS, it almost was). although if you were a wolf, maybe you would've unvoted if I hadn't done so immediately

by that same logic, one could construe my BDS unvote as indicative of me/BDS as a wolf pair, with my initial BDS vote as an attempt to distance. I wonder if anyone will try to bring this up

curious to see if Nakah tries to push on me today.

I still humanread Toby, even (especially?) after his BDS vote. if Toby's a human it makes a lot of sense to vote TZP/BDS based on probability if he read both you and me as human; if he was a wolf, I think he'd be more cautious about looking like he's jumping on a bandwagon. but maybe this is muddled by the fact that he didn't seem to have much time. I want to see him now that he says he can be more active. (it's also possible Toby's a wolf partnered with raeko or Nakah, and the fact that you and I have been widely humanread just gave him a convenient reason to go for the BDS/TZP lynch.)

I no longer feel good about Nakah. I don't feel bad about him, but right now he's right back in the pool with everyone else for me.

some more thoughts:

- if TZP was a wolf, I really only see him being paired with Specs (which I think is a pretty likely scenario!). I don't think he's paired with Toby because Toby voted BDS which ultimately got BDS/TZP lynched; if TZP/Toby were wolves, I think Toby could have voted raeko without coming under too much scrutiny. if TZP was a wolf with anyone other than Specs or Toby, I think he almost certainly would have let Specs/Toby die.

- if BDS was a wolf... idk. probably not paired with Toby or Specs because he also could have just joined the raeko train. possibly paired with raeko? Nakah seems to think so. or possibly paired with Nakah, and his initial Nakah push could have been a distancing ploy. I don't have great evidence for or against raeko/BDS or BDS/Nakah, other than that BDS didn't seem all that concerned about his survival at the end of the round there (if he was a wolf, he might've tried to convince you/me earlier to switch to Specs)

- if raeko's a wolf: raeko/BDS as aforementioned. as people have pointed out, raeko said she liked Toby's reasoning for voting Specs, even though the reasoning was not very much to go on. I don't think(?) raeko has responded to this? raeko/Specs or raeko/Toby are plausible — I suggested to raeko early on that I didn't want to lynch Toby/Specs because I townread Toby, and she was onboard with this. there's been basically... no visible interaction between raeko or Toby/Specs all game, which is interesting. raeko/Specs is made less plausible by the fact that Specs left his vote on raeko before dipping, and there was a reasonable chance at that time that me/raeko were in fact going to get lynch.

- if Nakah's a wolf: BDS/Nakah as mentioned. in his sus list he townchecks Specs, doesn't give a check on Toby. I find it interesting that he townreads you and wolfreads me... maybe this became more apparent at the end of the phase, but I think people (at least, TZP and Toby) have been reading us pretty similarly so far, and it's a little interesting to me that Nakah doesn't, although maybe it's because of your PMs with him. I think this hints toward Nakah/Specs, possibly Nakah/Toby, for me.

- the other thing I'm worried about is the world where raeko and Nakah are wolves. I think we've mostly established a consensus in thread that this isn't true, but... I can't help but wonder if all of the distancing that happened before was a big ploy. raeko did say she want to lynch you/Nakah, but I wonder whether they planned for raeko to do that and for Nakah to lead a charge against BDS so that you/Nakah wouldn't die, especially given that I had brought up my suspicions about the you/Nakah wagon. Nakah's "reaction test" vote on raeko also feels really out of place to me...

if raeko/Nakah were wolves, it would be weird that raeko initially suggested voting THC to me in PMs. this was early d1, and most notably, at that time most people were against the idea that we should reveal lover pairs d1. if raeko didn't think we would reveal lover pairs, sussing THC wouldn't distance herself from Nakah. (that said, she did say in the second half of d1 that she had changed her mind and was also thinking about revealing before I went ahead and did it.) maybe it was a long con by her to sus THC (but not go through with it), wait until we reveal lover pairs, and use it as a way to distance herself from Nakah.

in the end I still think raeko/Nakah is not super likely, but I still worry, because Specs/Toby seems like the "obvious" lynch for us to go for today, and if we do then raeko/Nakah get to run away with the win.

in short, my wolf pairs tier list:

highly plausible:
TZP/Specs
Nakah/Specs

pretty plausible:
raeko/Toby
Nakah/Toby

plausible:
raeko/Nakah
BDS/Nakah
BDS/raeko
raeko/Specs

not very plausible:
everything else

in general I find it really unlikely that anyone bussed their wolf partner - particularly any of BDS/TZP/Specs/Toby, because their lovers are all under suspicion too, and so bussing their wolf partner wouldn't make them that much less likely to get lynched d2.

I'm sus of Specs.

I've been thinking about if there's some sort of reaction test I want to pull today. not sure how to do it.

looks like Specs is starting to plant the seed of a narrative that I'm a wolf. I expect he's going to push hard for me/raeko today. this lines up with my suspicions of TZP/Specs or Nakah/Specs being the top possibilities...

I don't know if raeko was just busy for all of yesterday evening, but I can't help but feel like if she was a wolf partnered with any of BDS/TZP/Toby/Specs, she would have made more of an effort to come in and save her partner.

other than Specs now, the only other one who's wolfread me is Nakah. given that I'm less sus of raeko now that I was yesterday, in my eyes Specs/Nakah is currently the most likely wolf pairing - if so, I think they might push this together and try to secure a d2 win.

I might vote raeko as a reaction test, and see how they respond.

posted - to be clear, I do not actually want to lynch raeko anymore. what I have posted is a lie (Specs is my top wolfread right now) and I want to see how others respond.

if I'm right about Specs and/or Nakah, then me sussing raeko is probably right where they want me — although it also complicates their attempts to paint me as wolfy.

[close]

mainly, because Specs wanted to vote raeko yesterday and seemed reluctant to townread me post-lynch (although in hindsight I may have overexaggerated the latter in my head), and Nakah sussed both raeko and me yesterday, I expected that one or both of them would try to push for a me/raeko vote today.

here's my real reasoning. most of it is the same as I stated in my fake votepost, but there are a few key differences that are noted (and some updates since I PM'ed THC my suslist):

THC: I trust THC strongly, for the same reasons as before. I won't consider him in any of the wolf pairings below

TZP: as I stated before, TZP's suicide play basically rules him out as a wolf except for the possibility of TZP/Specs as wolves (wolf!TZP wouldn't have forced the kitb unless his partner was Specs or Toby, and Toby was one of the people who voted TZP).

BDS: BDS/Toby or BDS/Specs seem implausible because BDS could've pushed me/raeko. BDS/Nakah seems implausible because Nakah started the BDS lynch train and got him lynched (although maybe it was a distancing attempt and he didn't actually expect it'd take off? but that seems extremely risky if he couldn't be around phase end). this leaves BDS/raeko, which I think is most likely the only world where either BDS or raeko is a wolf

raeko: raeko/Specs seems implausible because Specs voted raeko and left at a time when she was a big contender to be voted, less than 2 hours from phase end. raeko/Toby seems quite unlikely because d2, Toby stated he was leaning toward a raeko lynch after I voted, which seems pretty likely to snowball into a wagon. now, raeko/Nakah is possible, but highly unlikely, I think, because (a) raeko wanted to lynch THC early in d1, (b) raeko left a vote on Nakah and dipped for the rest of the phase (which seems highly risky if you can't be around phase end), and (c) Nakah's sus list set him up to push me/raeko after lynching BDS and it would look really strange if he didn't. this just leaves raeko/BDS.

Nakah, Specs, Toby: the remaining pairs are Specs/Nakah or Toby/Nakah. I mentioned in my votepost that I didn't think Nakah was a wolf with anyone other than raeko because he would've just pushed the me/raeko wagon instead, but I think this logic is wrong and I wanted to see if anyone would call me out on it. at the time the votes were basically uniformly split, and raeko only had one vote (TZP) which was a pressure vote. in other words, the wagon didn't really exist yet, and for a Nakah paired with Specs or Toby, pushing sus onto BDS (while saying they thought BDS and raeko were the wolves, to set up for a d2 me/raeko lynch - even though you already wolfchecked both of us d1 but not TZP??) would be a way to get a "harder" lynch off on a potentially UTR wolf (BDS), which would look townier than getting an easy lynch on a more obvious target who's been sussed for short posts and inactivity.

Nakah has set himself up in a position where it'd be very natural for him to push me/raeko today. now, this is very circumstantial, and I don't wolfread Nakah for this alone; from my pov raeko/BDS is also a possibility, and human!Nakah would be consistent with this behavior in this case.

however, I currently wolfread Specs. I got worried about him pushing both me/raeko out today to secure a win based on his comment, which is what prompted me to do the reaction test:

MSFs unvote (to avoid a KitB) was well received by THC. Avoiding a KitB generally appears human, but it could've been an opertunity as a wolf to gain town-creds while also getting the oppertunity to change a vote.

and while I think this an okay comment and I may have gotten a little too paranoid about it (given that he also questioned Nakah and THC in said post), ultimately his response to my vote is what made me wolfread him:

Similar to TZP voting himself out, MSF deliberately taking himself down strikes me as human-play, assuming he sticks with it.

Of course, it could be a plot to instill human!MSF vibes, resulting in him not getting lynched. I personally don't think this is the case, however.

If it's genuine, its a gamble on raeko being a wolf. MSF ran through the possibilities pretty well, and given his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov.

specifically — it's extremely avoidant on making any sort of stance or claim about my vote. he spends almost all of it talking about how it reflects on my own sus (which I think is less the important issue, given that I've been highly townread by everyone other than Specs, Nakah, and to some extent raeko), and virtually none of it addressing what I said about raeko. all he says is, "MSF ran through the possibilities pretty well, and given his suspicions, I think it makes sense from his pov." from my perspective - what about yours? given that you voted raeko yesterday, I'm surprised that you have nothing else to say - not about whether you agree/disagree with any of what I said, not about whether or not you are still sus of raeko or not.

this strikes me as an extremely cautious middle ground — not wanting to disincentive me from going through with it, but not wanting to agree too strongly and seem wolfy. I think town!Specs, who sussed and voted raeko yesterday right before phase end, would be significantly more interested in the question of whether raeko's a wolf, not me. because of this, you're currently my main wolfread.

(meanwhile Toby, first thing, just says "I'm leaning towards voting Raeko today." with a reason attached. this could be a play be wolf!Toby with partner wolf!Nakah to secure the win, but it reads to me as substantially less cautious and more of a human's stream of consciousness.)

(I also think Specs and Nakah as wolf partners makes sense to me — namely that both of them have expressed sus on raeko and have been a little more focused than everyone else on me as a potential wolf, and I think that Nakah voting BDS and Specs voting raeko makes sense as a distancing play at a time when it didn't seem like either THC/Nakah or Specs/Toby was particularly at risk. but this is only one of the worlds for why I want to lynch them)

---

I haven't particularly wolfread raeko before today, and I do read her reaction so far as relatively town. I think the lylo slip THC pointed out is definitely a bad look, and it did give me pause as to whether the wolves were simply raeko/BDS. but I do think it'd be a really novice mistake to make? the fact that she hasn't been paying attention (which generally seems true) and wasn't aware we were in lylo seems at least as believable to me as it being a wolfslip. I think she'd have to not be paying attention to make that slip regardless of alignment.

I do read her reaction as human too, based on how desperate it seems:

Not IF not me. NOT me. First of all I'm not a wolf. Second of all voting to lynch yourself is against your win condition as well. so yeah not going to do that

I don't think that a not-very-active wolf!raeko with a dead wolf!BDS partner would be as desperate not to die (and she also has expressed some willingness to self-sacrifice d3). she didn't come back to finish defending herself last night like she said, although I don't think availability is very alignment indicative.

ultimately, reads are fallible - but in the end, the possible pairs in my mind are: raeko/BDS, Toby/Nakah, Specs/Nakah, and Specs/TZP. even disregarding reads, probabilistically (given uniform distribution over wolf pairs) my preferred voting order is Specs/Toby > THC/Nakah > me/raeko, in a 3 : 2 : 1 ratio. to a first-order approximation, this means I would have to think that wolf!raeko is three times more likely than either wolf!Specs or wolf!Toby... which, no, I don't.

(by the way, the "raeko's buddying made me uncomfortable" line was pulled out my ass.)

between my fake votepost and the time I'm writing this, nobody has come to raeko's defense. could be a raeko/BDS world, but if nobody calls this out, I'd be much more scared of a world where wolves are pushing a bad vote to win.

---

btw, I actually redacted some parts of my PMs with THC to execute the reaction test. see the full PMs here (redacted parts in bold):

I think I might actually off myself

if you and Nakah aren't wolves then the pairings are:

TZP/Toby
TZP/Specs
raeko/BDS
raeko/TZP
raeko/Toby
raeko/Specs

voting Specs gets rid of 4 of these 6 pairings. but so does raeko. maybe most of all, I'm disproportionately worried of a raeko/TZP pairing where they're currently distancing each other. raeko PM'ed me previously that she thought TZP was UTR - that kind of came out of nowhere, and now I worry it was a setup by raeko and TZP. likewise TZP's vote on raeko, and now TZP reaffirms it, but only now in the position where there's not a risk of TZP's vote actually killing raeko.

if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, I might be shooting town in the foot.

the downside is if the wolves are actually Toby/Nakah or Specs/Nakah though, in which case I might be shooting town in the foot.

it might be worth hanging on given that I seem pretty widely townread, and then push for raeko tomorrow. if the pair really is raeko/TZP, I think BDS will be on board. I don't know if Nakah will be on board.

(I didn't realize I sent the same thing about shooting town in the foot to THC twice oops lol)

(by the way, I also PM'ed my tentative plans to kill myself and raeko last-second to BDS, who didn't respond)

afterward, though, TZP pulled his suicide play, which removed all possibility in my mind of raeko/TZP wolves - hence not wanting to lynch raeko anymore.

[mastersuperfan]

tl;dr wolfread Specs, don't really wolfread raeko. I only see raeko's partner being BDS and I think it's much more likely there's a wolf in the Specs/Toby pair, particularly Specs.

I'll be voting for Specs now.

[SpecsFlyer17]

I don't entirely hate the idea of dying this phase. I feel pretty neutral about Toby, so I'd rather see it go somewhere else.

Has anyone considered a THC/MSF. The fact that MSF isn't even remotely considering THC leads me to believe this may be a push for a lylo win. If they can successfully push the vote onto someone else D2, it could be game if they are wolf partners.

[SpecsFlyer17]

I'd be okay with THC-Nakah or MSF-raeko going down this phase.

Looking at the D1 vote, raeko held a vote on Nakah, while Nakah was a part of the BDS vote. Not sure there's a whole lot to draw out from that alone.

I think Nahak probably has a better chance of going down given raeko's D1 vote, so Nakah for now. Mainly to break up the potential THC/MSF wolf pair that I'm very suspicious of.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Has anyone considered a THC/MSF. The fact that MSF isn't even remotely considering THC leads me to believe this may be a push for a lylo win. If they can successfully push the vote onto someone else D2, it could be game if they are wolf partners.

While that is certainly a possibility, why would I have defended you so vehemently towards the beginning of the game if that were the case? All it did was bring unnecessary suspicion on myself, and it's not like you're my or msf's lover. I very much almost got myself and Nakah lynched, and I was not planning on backing down.

[mastersuperfan]

I don't entirely hate the idea of dying this phase. I feel pretty neutral about Toby, so I'd rather see it go somewhere else.

where would you see it most rather go and why? I want to see you actually put forth a position today, because the fact that you still haven't is why I'm sussing you

Has anyone considered a THC/MSF. The fact that MSF isn't even remotely considering THC leads me to believe this may be a push for a lylo win. If they can successfully push the vote onto someone else D2, it could be game if they are wolf partners.

strictly speaking it's possible, but it would be an extremely elaborate setup. given just how much THC and I have interacted this game (first the whole chunk of time where I pushed on him as my biggest wolfread, then we both hop our votes around from each others' lovers to BDS to Specs, then we fully trust each other and communicate heavily over PM), I think it'd be incredibly on the nose for us to pull this as wolves. I've been townread by BDS, TZP, and Toby, and while that's isn't everyone, I think THC has basically been universally townread. it'd be giving us a lot of credit and everyone else a lot of flak :p

if THC/MSF really bothers you, I don't dislike the idea of lynching THC/Nakah either, since I find raeko/Specs and raeko/Toby unlikely. depending on how you/Toby end up reading raeko, I worry that this will cause us to get into a kitb d3 with me/raeko voting against you/Specs, but that's far better to me than the possibility of losing to Specs/Nakah or Toby/Nakah today.

^ I mean, I guess I'm not actually sure that solves anything, because if the wolves are me/THC then voting THC/Nakah today and you/Toby tomorrow means we would still win if we were wolves. but the point still stands that I'd be fine (though not extremely happy) voting THC/Nakah if it came to it.

---

double ninja'd. Specs has given a position even if there's not very much backing it up I guess

[mastersuperfan]

Now I'd like to analyze TZP's last-minute vote change to the KitB.

Prior to his vote change, his vote was on raeko, with Toby/Specs leading the pack at 3 votes. TZP/BDS had 2 votes, so the only influential move he could've made was creating the KitB between TZP/BDS and Toby/Specs, which he did.

From a statistical standpoint (random distribution) and assuming TZP is human, I'm not sure this move makes sense. On page 1, we discussed the probabilities of a given human being paired with a wolf: 2/3 chance your partner is a human, 1/3 chance it's a wolf. So from that angle, self-preservation makes sense, and TZP should've not gambled on himself getting killed.

So, there was clearly another motivation behind his vote change. One, he could've just felt strong enough about human!Toby and human!Specs that he was willing to take a risk that wolf!BDS was his partner. That's consistent with his suspicion list, as Toby was his least-suspicious, and I was in the middle of the pack. Still, I think his suspicions regarding the possibilities above must've been very strong to cause him to change his vote.

I'm not sure it makes any sense for wolf!TZP to do what he did. The only scenario where that makes any sense would be if wolf!TZP's partner wolf existed in the Toby/Specs lover pair. That's inconsistent with his suspicion list. Furthermore, the net result is still even, as it was either wolf!Toby/wolf!Specs that died, or wolf!TZP.

Given all of that, human!TZP seems like overwhelmingly the likely option. If that is true, statistically he took down another human (2/3 chance an H-H), but it could've been wolf!BDS.

tbh not sure if I love this analysis, particularly the part in bold. I think if TZP is a wolf with a partner between Specs and Toby, TZP has a lot to gain from killing himself and taking BDS down with him. for one, BDS was the biggest advocate for lynching Specs/Toby in the first place, so killing BDS meant Specs/Toby would be in much less danger d2. meanwhile, Nakah was the biggest advocate for taking TZP down, and BDS wanted to push TZP as his next option after Toby/Specs - and if Toby/Specs were lynched d1, both Nakah and BDS would be around d2 to make that push.

if TZP/Specs or TZP/Toby are wolves, TZP's self-sacrifice there is a potentially winning play.

[mastersuperfan]

meanwhile, Nakah was the biggest advocate for taking BDS down

fixed

[mastersuperfan]

I think TZP/Specs looms larger in my mind than Specs/Nakah now

[mastersuperfan]

tbh not sure if I love this analysis, particularly the part in bold. I think if TZP is a wolf with a partner between Specs and Toby, TZP has a lot to gain from killing himself and taking BDS down with him. for one, BDS was the biggest advocate for lynching Specs/Toby in the first place, so killing BDS meant Specs/Toby would be in much less danger d2. meanwhile, Nakah was the biggest advocate for taking TZP down, and BDS wanted to push TZP as his next option after Toby/Specs - and if Toby/Specs were lynched d1, both Nakah and BDS would be around d2 to make that push.

if TZP/Specs or TZP/Toby are wolves, TZP's self-sacrifice there is a potentially winning play.

and if TZP survived the kitb and Toby/Specs died, he'd look extremely human.

I think TZP's move actually makes the most sense if he's a wolf partner with Specs or Toby rather than if he were a human.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

I was already thinking that voting Toby/Specs is (from my viewpoint), statistically the best lynch option. I don't really townlean on raeko like msf does, but Specs' posts lately just have not been holding much water with me. I honestly can see town!Toby reaction testing with that Specs vote at the beginning, but I still feel that the Tobecs duo is the best lynch option for today. At this point, I doubt it would be raeko/Nakah, and I'm fairly confident in msf as town, so logically that would leave Toby/Specs as being the best option to vote for. However, I will withhold my vote for now. If we are wrong, then me voting now would risk a wolf rush if both wolves are still alive.

[raeko]

I mean, I guess I'm not actually sure that solves anything, because if the wolves are me/THC then voting THC/Nakah today and you/Toby tomorrow means we would still win if we were wolves. but the point still stands that I'd be fine (though not extremely happy) voting THC/Nakah if it came to it.

But why would everyone by default go with toby tomorrow instead of one of us...?

If you and THC are the wolves, we still win by lynching THC today and you tomorrow. I'm not sure what you mean by this ending paragraph

[Oricorio]

Votecount:

SpecsFlyer17: 1 (mastersuperfan)
Nakah: 1 (SpecsFlyer17)

A little over eight hours left!

[Toby]

I don't love any of the analysing of TZP being possibly a wolf at this point, I think it's pretty obvious he was a human

I don't love mfs throwing an early reaction test vote on Raeko, when mfs voted myself/specs at end of last day for not being looked at after a reaction test

@mfs why did you choose to vote Specs over voting BDS yesterday?

[Toby]

I'll post this pm I got from Specs after I voted him for anyone else to analyse:

Hello fellow lover. Hopefully my wife doesn't see this lol.

I don't hate your vote on me, although it strikes me as more of a reaction test, both for me and everyone else.

As mentioned in the thread, human!Toby see's me as 1/3 chance wolf, 2/3 chance human, and I see you as 1/3 chance wolf and 2/3 chance human. So ideally I'd hate to see us both go D1, but I am curious how this plays out.

He did immediately call it out as a reaction test, which I can see as more obvious from the pov that I'm voting my lover which will kill me off. But what's to say that I wouldn't be okay with that since my win con isn't to survive but lynch the wolves

I also don't love being presented with statistics as a day 1 defence in a social deduction game

My vote got little to no attention from Specs in topic, he ignored it. I recall Specs doing that previously as a wolf, but when voted as a human would respond to it (IIRC he did when I was wolf and voted him last game). I need to double check