TWG CXX: Lynch the Grynch Game Thread

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Davy, why are you voting me? Even before THC claimed, I made it pretty clear that I was just passing along information.

Oricorio, my updated suspicion list for living players:

6. TZP (me tier)
5. THC (as-yet uncc'd seer)
4. Xiao (see last sus list)
3. BDS (uncc'd seer has unqualifiable obsession ??)
2. Oricorio (red check by uncc'd seer)
1. davy (seered as Grandma by uncc'd seer)

I'd be happy for Xiao to pop in here and claim Santa, as everyone else has posted, but I kinda doubt that Xiao will claim blue. I think that the Toby wolfing was in all likelihood the result of the Grynch getting a lucky blue seering and removing him--why else pick a fairly inactive player who totally could have been lynched yesterday?

If THC is the Grynch and seered Toby as blue N1 and then wolfed Toby N2 to remove a blue and then claim blue in that player's stead, without knowing which blue Toby was, he's betting the game on a coin flip--if Toby was seer and THC claims seer, he probably wins; if Toby was Santa and THC claims seer, he gets thunderdomed with the real seer and probably loses. Jury's out on whether that is a risk that THC would take, I suppose.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

And I didn't seer BDS because I didn't want to prove myself wrong.

THC what does this mean. Why would you not want to prove yourself right?

[Oricorio]

I sent a similar message to every player, changing the names for each person, to see if I could gain any information from who got killed.

Also, I am the seer, and TZP is telling the truth. I didn't seer him, but he's my highest townread right now, and I was afraid I was going to die last night, so I told him about my davy seering. After I didn't die, I told him about my red seering on Oricorio and asked him to tell it publicly on my behalf. As for why I voted for BDS still at that point is because, as I said, I am willing to die on that hill. And I didn't seer BDS because I didn't want to prove myself wrong.

There are a couple of questions I have. Firstly, why seer davy N1 when you seemingly didn't suspect he was a wolf and there were multiple inactives you could have resolved? Secondly, it is a bit odd that your worldview didn't change after getting a red check.

Also, it would be nice if everyone could reveal the messages they got from THC; I am mainly interested in what names show up over and over again in the messages.

[Oricorio]

Davy, why are you voting me? Even before THC claimed, I made it pretty clear that I was just passing along information.

Oricorio, my updated suspicion list for living players:

6. TZP (me tier)
5. THC (as-yet uncc'd seer)
4. Xiao (see last sus list)
3. BDS (uncc'd seer has unqualifiable obsession ??)
2. Oricorio (red check by uncc'd seer)
1. davy (seered as Grandma by uncc'd seer)

I'd be happy for Xiao to pop in here and claim Santa, as everyone else has posted, but I kinda doubt that Xiao will claim blue. I think that the Toby wolfing was in all likelihood the result of the Grynch getting a lucky blue seering and removing him--why else pick a fairly inactive player who totally could have been lynched yesterday?

If THC is the Grynch and seered Toby as blue N1 and then wolfed Toby N2 to remove a blue and then claim blue in that player's stead, without knowing which blue Toby was, he's betting the game on a coin flip--if Toby was seer and THC claims seer, he probably wins; if Toby was Santa and THC claims seer, he gets thunderdomed with the real seer and probably loses. Jury's out on whether that is a risk that THC would take, I suppose.

Based solely on reads, who would you find most suspicious? What are your thoughts on BDS independently of the fact that THC seems to suspect him? I agree that if Xiao is blue they should claim, but it's not a guarantee they will

Also, BDS claimed that the Grinch could safely claim Seer if they seered Toby blue and put Santa on the naughty list, so take that as you will

[Oricorio]

THC claimed Seer, and based on their posts I don't think BDS or TZP are Santa (I'm not Santa). If THC's claims are true and my reads are correct, Santa would have to be between Toby and Xiao (or was math lol). I do think it's important for Xiao to claim here.

[Oricorio]

This may be a bit of a crackpot theory, but THC may be Grandma. In this world, the Seer would be math, Toby (either of which would be unfortunate for THC as he was hoping to get counterclaimed) or Xiao who hasn't shown up yet. He "seered" davy as Grandma, deflecting from him being Grandma, while "red-checking" me and parking a vote on BDS for a vague reason, the point of which would be to piss off the two most active players. However, there are a couple holes in this theory. Firstly, that THC apparently claimed privately to TZP before SoD2, which I don't see why he would do that if the claim was meant to look bad. Secondly, davy seems to have largely disappeared as if he realized that his wincon isn't plausible to achieve, granted he was on and off in terms of activity before.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

THC what does this mean. Why would you not want to prove yourself right?

No, I said I didn't want to prove myself wrong. It could have proven me right, but it was just as likely to prove me wrong, as well.

There are a couple of questions I have. Firstly, why seer davy N1 when you seemingly didn't suspect he was a wolf and there were multiple inactives you could have resolved? Secondly, it is a bit odd that your worldview didn't change after getting a red check.

Also, it would be nice if everyone could reveal the messages they got from THC; I am mainly interested in what names show up over and over again in the messages.

I suspected davy was Grandma, I even mentioned in my first post. As much as a Grandma seer isn't as good as a Grinch seer, it would still at least let us know not to vote that person. Also, I basically just moved the names one down for each person. The only one I didn't message was BDS, for obvious reasons.

[davy]

Davy, why are you voting me? Even before THC claimed, I made it pretty clear that I was just passing along information.

Because without THC's claim, there's no way to know if this seer you claimed contacted you actually exists. Even if town were to force you to reveal, you could have easily said you were actually the seer and pretended to have been contacted in an attempt to not get wolf'd N3.

Also, it would be nice if everyone could reveal the messages they got from THC; I am mainly interested in what names show up over and over again in the messages.

This is what I got:

Ok, I told Oricorio that if I die tonight, Toby is the Grinch. So if I die tonight, Oricorio is the Grinch trying to frame Toby. If I don't die, then BDS is the Grinch.

[davy]

Anyway, time to revise my earlier post now that THC has claimed.

THC is lying as I'm not Grandma, and it would have been impossible for the seer to mistake me for Grandma as no other role can be seered orange.

BDS, Oricorio and TZP all haven't counterclaimed, meaning the true seer must either be dead or inactive.

[davy]

This may be a bit of a crackpot theory, but THC may be Grandma. In this world, the Seer would be math, Toby (either of which would be unfortunate for THC as he was hoping to get counterclaimed) or Xiao who hasn't shown up yet. He "seered" davy as Grandma, deflecting from him being Grandma, while "red-checking" me and parking a vote on BDS for a vague reason, the point of which would be to piss off the two most active players. However, there are a couple holes in this theory. Firstly, that THC apparently claimed privately to TZP before SoD2, which I don't see why he would do that if the claim was meant to look bad. Secondly, davy seems to have largely disappeared as if he realized that his wincon isn't plausible to achieve, granted he was on and off in terms of activity before.

I'm not sure if any kind of theory about THC can be a crackpot theory. Heck, it wouldn't even surprise me if THC is just a towny claiming seer. That has precedence.

No, I said I didn't want to prove myself wrong. It could have proven me right, but it was just as likely to prove me wrong, as well.

So you care for your gut feeling so much that you, supposedly the one town player with an investigative role, didn't want to take the risk of having to admit your gut feeling was wrong?

I suspected davy was Grandma, I even mentioned in my first post. As much as a Grandma seer isn't as good as a Grinch seer, it would still at least let us know not to vote that person. Also, I basically just moved the names one down for each person. The only one I didn't message was BDS, for obvious reasons.

So you claim to have seered me to be able to let us know not to vote for me, and... you didnt? Not even when two players (Toby and Oricorio) expressed that it was about 50/50 if they wanted to vote for me, I already had a self vote on me, and you weren't even available for day end to prevent a lynching on me?

This all seems very remeniscent of Lantern game, even down to the fact that you claim to have seered me (with a different seering result, I'll give you that).

[XiaoMigros]

I am not blue.

[Oricorio]

Davy sent me a message:

Hey Oricorio, I'm Grandma. Shocker, I know.

Basically orange seering on my ensures my loss here, as if theseering is believed, I won't be lynched because people don't wanna lynch grandma. If the seer claimant is believed to be a wolf, he will be lynched and I won't be.

The only way out of this for me is by convincing other players that THC lied yet isn't a wolf. Fortunately, since it's THC that we are talking about that has precedent, especially considering that it has a sus check on me. Especially in the scenario that THC is Grandma and I am Grinch, THC's seering would guarantee my survival this phase, while him getting counterclaimed is the easiest way for him to become sus enough to be lynched. Fortunately, this was already BDS's running theory, so we have quite the chance to convince him.

Unfortunately, pointing this out in the topic myself is shooting myself in the foot, as there is no way the wolf would try to undermine the player that is trying to prevent them from being lynched, so I cannot do that if I want to convince town to lynch me.

So I need someone else to point it out for me. I believe you're the most likely player to be the grinch, so I'm revealing this all to you in the hopes that you'll work together with me.

Of course, if you're the miller or unwilling to work together with me, you can reveal this and ensure I won't get lynched, but I'm willing to take the bet, because I don't see myself getting lynched if I didn't regardless.

Yeah, so he's definitely Grandma. This does lend credence to THC's seering.

[Oricorio]

I am not blue.

So then, by PoE Santa must be dead. Unless they're hiding, in which case, understandable.

[davy]

Welp, figures my big play doesn't pay off.

Davy

Have fun with the rest of the game, townies! And good luck surviving this, BDS!

[Oricorio]

I mean, I guess there is a small chance davy is the Grinch, and using the Grandma situation to avoid being lynched (THC would be the real Grandma in this world). Still, Occam's Razor and all that.