TWG CXX: Lynch the Grynch Game Thread

[therealmathguy]

In terms of the davy read list, a lot of it is based on early reactions, a lot of which may have changed by now. The big differences are THC and a more extreme view of Oricorio. I'm not reading too much into it

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Voting Math. Sorry buddy, see you on the other side.

[therealmathguy]

I haven't seen enough Math to fully convince me he's human.

Or maybe I won't expand on BDS since it looks like I'm dying

I'll convince you I'm human in a couple minutes

[Toby]

Some skimming thoughts

Math - clutched at TZP and THC for asking Grinch questions. Asked for everyone's thoughts on TZP missing a grinch thing - is that too obvious that he's trying to rally people against TZP? I'm not leaning wolf on  him for this

THC - is being weird. sus of davy for being pro grandma while admittedly being pro grandma. Given his weird takes I'm inclined to believe if he was a wolf he may try act less weird. Asked if the wolf had a wolfing while recognising talk about a wolfing. Could see him being grandma possibly but not wolf lean

TZP - asked a grinch question. Don't think he'd do that as grinch honestly. I can see how it could be reverse psychology but I'm leaning he wouldn't. Seems to be retaliating against math  who voted him first and I think wolf TZP would avoid that angle but I'm quickly glancing

Oricorio - has been largely invested in the game. Doing GTH first post reads again and also insulting at times. Could be grandma but not leaning wolf

BDS - gave an early human lean on TZP. Wanted me to consider a davy/THC grinch/grandma pairing (odd). Don't think these are wolf takes

Davy - Gave an insightful take on Oricorio talking about grandma a lot. Nothing much else to make me think not wolf. His sus list was largely throughing suspicion on most of the players

I would be between Davy or Xiao so i'll go Xiao

[SpecsFlyer17]

TWG CXX: Lynch the Grynch



Teams:
1. The Grinch

2. Santa Claus
3. Rudolph
4. Frosty the Snowman
5. Elf
6. Elf
7. Ebenezer Scrooge

8. Grandma (who got run over a reindeer)


Role Descriptions:
Grinch: He hates Christmas so much so that each night, he selects one player to be put on the "naughty list". The following day, that player's vote will not count. This list is cumulative. The Grinch will be informed if the player was successfully added to the naughty list or not. Also, if he places Santa on the naughty list, the Grinch will become seer colored green, and Santa will lose the ability to place a player on the nice list. Also has a seer ability, which can be used each night.

Santa Claus: Each night, Santa selects one player to be on the "nice list". If that player is on the naughty list, they are removed from the list but can be placed on the naughty list later. If the player was not on the naughty list, they are immune from being placed on the naughty list for the rest of the game. Cannot select himself, however the ability can be used once more while dead if Santa dies.
Rudolph: Lights up the night with his bright nose. Each night, he can submit one name to learn their color. Seer role.
Frosty the Snowman: A jolly, happy soul. He's pretty thicc, and his extra weight allows him to survive one wolfing without dying. Does not apply to lynching. Role PM says he's an Elf.
Elf: Just a normal elf.
Ebenezer Scrooge: Despite his harsh appearance, Scrooge has rediscovered the true meaning and spirit of Christmas. Unfortunately, he will flag red if seer'd by Rudolph. Role PM says he's an Elf.

Grandma (who got run over by a reindeer): Or at least she's trying to. Her goal is to be lynched by D2. If she is successful in doing so, one random player who voted from her will also be run over by the reindeer (killed), although the Grinch cannot die via this method (unless no one else voted for Grandma). If she fails to be lynched by D2, she loses and is removed from the game. Cannot be wolfed; a wolfing attempt against her will fail. The game does NOT end if Grandma wins or loses.

Other Rules:
N1 start.
24hr nights, 48hr days (a time extension may be implemented over Christmas, Boxing Day, New Years on a case-by-case basis).
No cardflips.
Vote totals will not be published, just the lynched player (and whether or not it was a KitB).
No instas, phantoms will be awarded for failure to vote.
PMs are permitted, just keep the host included.
If the same player is selected by the Grinch and Santa on a given night, they are placed on the naughty list and then subsequently removed. They can be placed on the naughty list on subsequent nights. The Grinch will still be informed that their power worked, since the player was placed on the naughty list, then taken off it.
If a wolfing fails, a "wolfing failed" message will be announced. If the Grinch doesn't wolf anyone, a "no wolfing" message will be announced.
If the Grinch places Santa on the naughty list, the grinch will be informed and Santa's action's will be voided that night.
If Santa is wolfed, his action that night does not count as his one "dead" action.
Added: If the Grinch correctly guesses Santa and is Seer'd by Rudolph that night, the result will be green.
Added: If a day occurs where the best the town can force is a KitB (due to votes not counting), the Grinch will win (example: 2v1 where one townie is on the naughty list).
Added: For all deaths, a short death post is permitted, provided no gameplay, strategy, etc is share.

Win Conditions:
Grinch: Achieve parity (1v1), or force a situation where the best the town can do is a KitB.
Town: Lynch the Grinch.
Grandma: Get lynched by D2.

Role PMs

Spoiler

I wouldn't touch you with a 39-and-a-half-foot pole! You are the Grinch. Each night, submit a player to be placed on the naughty list and submit a player to be seer'd. The results of both actions will be returned at the end of the night phase. Also, submit a player to be wolfed. You win by achieving wolf/town parity, which is 1v1 in this game.

Ho Ho Ho! You are Santa Claus. Each night, submit a player (besides yourself) to be placed on the nice list. If you are killed, you can still place one more player on the nice list during a subsequent night. If the Grinch places you on the naughty list, you lose your power. Ho ho ho!

Lol your nose is red??? You must be Rudolph. Each night, submit a player to be seer'd. The result will be returned to you at the end of the night phase.

'sup shorty. You're an Elf. Find that Grinch and get him out of here! However, you could be Frosty the Snowman or Ebenezer Scrooge (admittedly that makes no sense, but just go with it).

(cue music) Grandma tried to get run over by a reindeer! You are Grandma, and your goal is to get lynched by D2, which is the game equivalent of being ran over. You don't have to worry about getting wolfed, but you will be removed from the game if you don't get lynched by D2. If you are lynched, a random player (besides the Grinch) who voted for you will also be run over by the reindeer (killed) with you. Your win condition does not affect the town/wolf win conditions.

[close]

Players
1. TheZeldaPianist
2. davy
3. BlackDragonSlayer
4. ThatHiddenCharacter
5. XiaoMigros
6. Oricorio
7. Toby
8. threalmathguy

D1: threalmathguy was lynched!

Math: 3 votes (BDS, Oricorio, TZP)
TZP: 1 vote (Math)
davy: 1 vote (davy)
BDS: 1 vote (THC)
Xiao: 1 vote (Toby)

Phantoms awarded accordingly.

Note this reflects the votes submitted and does not include any adjustments made from the naughty list.

N2 has begun, and will last until:
January 10th, 2023 
9:00p/2100 UTC
1:00p/1300 PST
3:00p/1500 CST
4:00p/1600 EST
10:00p/2200 CET

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Well, at least he wasn't Grandma or a special—and it's good to see that town is coordinated enough to avoid a KITB or unexpected last-minute vote change shuffle.

I'm going to post a suspicion list later today.

[Oricorio]

Well, at least he wasn't Grandma or a special—and it's good to see that town is coordinated enough to avoid a KITB or unexpected last-minute vote change shuffle.

I'm going to post a suspicion list later today.

I mean, he probably would have claimed if he were a PR, right? Though I have seen PRs that didn't claim in that very same situation

Still, don't let that distract you from the fact that we are in a very precarious position. A third lynch is by no means guaranteed, so we have to get it right tomorrow to be safe.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I mean, he probably would have claimed if he were a PR, right? Though I have seen PRs that didn't claim in that very same situation

I hope he would have.

Still, don't let that distract you from the fact that we are in a very precarious position. A third lynch is by no means guaranteed, so we have to get it right tomorrow to be safe.

That's true, but at least we have the seer—and, hopefully, results from two seerings, assuming Rudolph survives the night.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Damn, I'm sorry Math. Hope we can still be friends.

I don't know, BDS. That did kinda feel like a last-minute vote shuffle to me. Also, there's definitely a small part of me that was hoping for a naughty list surprise in the vote count with the attendant deduction opportunities, but the three votes Math got is past the margin of what the naughty list could possibly have done, so there's no way to know for sure. (taking up the math guy mantle now that the previous one is dead)

[Oricorio]

So, with math being town (as the game would have ended if he was the Grinch or someone else would have also died if he was Grandma) we're at 1-5-1. A successful wolfing (more likely than last phase, since the Grinch is unlikely to target the same person they did N1) would bring it to 1-4-1, and as we are guaranteed to lose two players tomorrow it would bring it at 1-3, which the Grinch can just wolf one and Naughty List the other. Even if Santa is still alive at that point, it would be an incredible WIFOM to predict who the Grinch would naughty list: typically you'd want to Nice List the towniest players, but at the end the Grinch can Naughty List the wolfiest town player, and if Santa tries to prevent that they could end up Nice Listing the Grinch.

That's not what concerns me most, though. After tonight, the Grinch will have had two chances to put people on the naughty list. With six players alive D2, if Santa didn't remove anyone from the Naughty List, a wolf-Grandma alliance would result in a KitB at best for town. We have to proceed carefully.

[therealmathguy]

Death post:

(taking up the math guy mantle now that the previous one is dead)

Fraud math guy out

[Oricorio]

Damn, I'm sorry Math. Hope we can still be friends.

I don't know, BDS. That did kinda feel like a last-minute vote shuffle to me. Also, there's definitely a small part of me that was hoping for a naughty list surprise in the vote count with the attendant deduction opportunities, but the three votes Math got is past the margin of what the naughty list could possibly have done, so there's no way to know for sure. (taking up the math guy mantle now that the previous one is dead)

Well, you were the last on the wagon. Just sayin'

Still, 5 people got votes, which would have been reckless if it got to KiTB. As I said before, there are ways to get some information about who is on the naughty list, but such methods are very strategically questionable when we have such little margin for error

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Well, you were the last on the wagon. Just sayin'

Still, 5 people got votes, which would have been reckless if it got to KiTB. As I said before, there are ways to get some information about who is on the naughty list, but such methods are very strategically questionable when we have such little margin for error

Yeah I agree with this, and even if we were to triangulate who is on the list, that only tells us so much about who the Grynch might be. And a 5-way KitB is definitely irresponsible lol.

So, with math being town (as the game would have ended if he was the Grinch or someone else would have also died if he was Grandma) we're at 1-5-1. A successful wolfing (more likely than last phase, since the Grinch is unlikely to target the same person they did N1) would bring it to 1-4-1, and as we are guaranteed to lose two players tomorrow it would bring it at 1-3, which the Grinch can just wolf one and Naughty List the other. Even if Santa is still alive at that point, it would be an incredible WIFOM to predict who the Grinch would naughty list: typically you'd want to Nice List the towniest players, but at the end the Grinch can Naughty List the wolfiest town player, and if Santa tries to prevent that they could end up Nice Listing the Grinch.

That's not what concerns me most, though. After tonight, the Grinch will have had two chances to put people on the naughty list. With six players alive D2, if Santa didn't remove anyone from the Naughty List, a wolf-Grandma alliance would result in a KitB at best for town. We have to proceed carefully.

This is a perfectly reasonable observation, but it could also be a good bit more hopeful than that. The chances that the Grynch hits the players that Santa has nice-listed also go up over time. If Santa has played his cards right (i.e.: not nice-listing Math) he may well counter the Grynch.

Death post:

Fraud math guy out

The elites don't want you to know this, but the real TZP/Specs/Math lore is that Math is the least real math guy of all of us.

[davy]

And I indeed missed the phase update.

Give me a second to read through the thread and I'll be back with my thoughts.

[davy]

Just gonna spend this night responding to people, actual thoughts will come tomorrow when I'm less sleepy (but still before the phase change.

1. Aren't you gonna look at any of my many posts that aren't about Grandma?

Like in lantern game, the early game was kinda drowning in your posts. Your other posts didn't have anything that caught my eye immediately and I haven't taken the time to comb through everyone's posts like you have. I'm sorry if I offended you by putting you at the top of my suspicion list before combing through everyone's posts like that.

2. What exactly about those posts is lacking "content", and what about that is wolf-indicative? Saying posts don't have "content" is like the easiest way to contrive suspicion on them

At that point TZP had made an intro post; a post where he laid out a third lynch wasn't guaranteed, asked two questions and made a read list consisting of mostly agreeing with consensus; a post about missing the Grynch seer; and a reply to math wolfreading him. I'm used to TZP being more active in mechanics discussion and in formulating his own thoughts on other players, so this felt off to me.

Math had made an intro post with a question; a post with a defense after being called out by you; a post calling out TZP on missing the grynch seering ability; and an explanation of the list being cummulative. While it has a little bit of everything, I was expecting math to use his posts to contribute more, most notibly is a missing reads list, which is why I felt his posts were lacking content.

As for why a lack of content is wolf-indicative: wolves have to make sure they don't slip up lest they get lynched. The more you post, the more likely it is you slip up somewhere, so wolves prefer to lay low. However, laying too low will draw suspicion, so wolves do need to post something. That is my reasoning why I feel players that are posting but not adding much to the discussion are wolf leans.

3. If it's "typical" of math, why are you wolfleaning them?

You're twisting my words here by changing my comparative to a positive. I do not find it characteristic for math to do this, just more so than for TZP, which is why math is a wolf lean but lower on the list than TZP. Perhaps I would have better gotten my point across if I had said 'less uncharacteristic', but that means the exact same and has an ugly double negative.

4. What exactly about that "content" makes him no longer a wolflean?

If BDS is posting more content, he's taking more risk of slipping up somewhere if he is a wolf, basically the opposite of my explanation in point 2. I am willing to let an earlier lean go when I see a player play differently than what my lean was based on.

5-6. Why are you wolfreading players for not providing "content" yet giving a pass to these people?

In my experience, genuine inactivity often has more to do with factors outside the game than being alignment indicative, with Toby as a nice example, seeing how he was reluctant to even sign up for the game. When players do find the time to engage with the game, yet still don't provide much content, it is less likely to have to do with factors outside the game, which is why I wolfread those players.

7. What do you think about the latest post?

Agree with the first part of his post; second part is explanation for what felt to me like a genuine question to me; third part: not a fan of GTH terminology because ambiguity like this. 'davy GTH wolf' could mean 'davy seems more like a wolf than any other role' or 'davy seems more like a wolf than any other player'.

8. If your role PM says "elf", then why are you voting for yourself over the six people you don't townread?

I have safetied myself multiple times previously, so it's not like this is comming out of nowhere (though it has been a while since I last safetied, so I get why this is not known meta).

Whenever I safety, I prefer to do so on myself. There is precedent for safety votes being the tiebreaker, and I'd rather be the victim of my one not well thought out vote than anybody else.

As for why I safetied at all, I felt all three of my wolf leans were weak, and was in a pretty unique situation for me where the entire following 24 hours I ended up being unable to make another vote. I was expecting players to add more content to the game in the meantime, and prefered if the players that actually read those contributions made the decision who to lynch. Since I had previous experience of being the tiebreaker vote on a vote made early (Lantern game, as I said in my previous post) I felt me voting any of my wolf leans would carry too much risk of repeating that.

I agree with you that it's the least optimal vote, but this is an instance where I prefer playing suboptimally to potentially ruining another player's fun.