TWG CXX: Lynch the Grynch Game Thread

[Toby]

Hi sorry I haven't managed to catch-up I've had a heavy few days staying with family but I'm back home and can play catchup tomorrow

Does anyone want me to look at someone/something specific and I can focus myself on that when I get home tonight

[Oricorio]

Hi sorry I haven't managed to catch-up I've had a heavy few days staying with family but I'm back home and can play catchup tomorrow

Does anyone want me to look at someone/something specific and I can focus myself on that when I get home tonight

You probably should look at davy, as well as perhaps TZP and BDS who seem to be a bit divisive (though I GTH town on both)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I never claimed you only replied. I said that your responses didn't amount to much more than just a reply. Your "additional content" felt very thin and meaningless.

This feels like even more backpedaling, especially considering how little we had to work with that first phase.

I saw all that. That's exactly why I asked. It didn't mention anything about a wolfing in the Grinch's role description, but there were mentions of it elsewhere, so I wanted to be absolutely clear on it.

Fine enough. Never hurts to be certain.

From what Oricorio said, GTH would be what you would say if someone put a gun to your and told you to give an answer or die. With the current information, davy is the active player that seemed most likely to be Grandma since he was the only one not vocally against a Grandma lynch. I believe he even said it would make sense to do under certain circumstances, though I could be misremembering (can't look back while making a post on mobile). I also mentioned that I could see him as Grandma in my list of stuff, so the GTH really wasn't out of nowhere. As the others hadn't really weighed in much on anything at that point, I couldn't GTH any of them as Grandma.

It still feels like even more of a stretch, even with the GTH angle. Considering the pool of players you had to pick from for GTH Grandma was either Davy or Oricorio, it feels more like you just wanted to cast shade on Davy for the sake of doing so.

Re: bold part, that also felt equally random.

So if we disregard your opening post and your TWC post, you had made two posts at that point, each of them broken up into two parts (because replying to two quotes) and only part of two of those four parts contained new content. I think THC's point stands based on that.

IMO, if you just count those two posts, THC's point looks even worse since I wasn't just going around making random, empty posts.

I wasn't sure if we could use the info from the failed wolfing and Oricorio didn't think we could, so I'm really liking you pointing out we should be wary of someone pushing a lynch too eagerly.

Of course, now that this has been pointed out in the topic, the wolf may not even go for a potential grandma lynch and try to leverage the knowledge they gained from having their wolfing failed otherwise.

True, I considered not posting it because of that, but overall I feel that the wolf still has a high chance of getting away with it even if they go through with the strategy (especially if they seered Grandma and know that the person they hit is Frosty—or if suspicion picks up on the person they wolfed naturally).

Another thing that's weird about davy's list is that it has only one townlean. Townies will usually try to find at least one more townlean, and davy's list suggests that they want to be open to any potential lynch. Their one townlean is the player who townleaned them, meaning it can be read as pocketing. However, given the self-vote when a wolf would have many options to vote after that post, makes me think that that post looking suspicious is kind of the point

I'm more suspicious of Davy suddenly pivoting away from me after I pushed back against both him and THC—especially because, like you said:

Saying posts don't have "content" is like the easiest way to contrive suspicion on them

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I think it's very possible that Davy/THC could be Grinch/Grandma (in either combination). Before Oricorio's recent posts I wasn't sure about the idea of Davy being Grandma, but now I'm willing to consider it as a possibility. In this game especially, we have to be really vigilant about people who seem to be deliberately acting in a way that seems suspicious, at least until Grandma is definitively identified and/or kicked from the game. On the off chance that one of Davy/THC is Grandma I'm not sure how confident I feel lynching either one of them today.

For the time being I'm going to vote Math, though that may change depending on if/how he responds later.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also: if Rudolph seers Grandma, they probably shouldn't say something publicly unless Grandma is in danger of being lynched. No need to reveal themselves unless there's risk to not doing so.

Hi sorry I haven't managed to catch-up I've had a heavy few days staying with family but I'm back home and can play catchup tomorrow

Does anyone want me to look at someone/something specific and I can focus myself on that when I get home tonight

I'm curious what you think about the THC/Davy dynamic.

[Oricorio]

Also: if Rudolph seers Grandma, they probably shouldn't say something publicly unless Grandma is in danger of being lynched. No need to reveal themselves unless there's risk to not doing so.
I'm curious what you think about the THC/Davy dynamic.

I'm not 100% sure that Rudolph should out even then, as there is nothing preventing them from being wolfed after then. A red check is basically a 50% chance to win the game, after all.

It's not directed at me, but THC/davy can't be partnered as there is only one wolf here, and it can't be wolf/Grandma since neither are interested in pushing the other. Most likely, davy is the Grinch pocketing THC or is Grandma trying to make it look like they're pocketing THC.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

It's not directed at me, but THC/davy can't be partnered as there is only one wolf here, and it can't be wolf/Grandma since neither are interested in pushing the other. Most likely, davy is the Grinch pocketing THC or is Grandma trying to make it look like they're pocketing THC.

Do they need to be? Grandma wants to keep the Grinch alive for as long as possible so Grandma has more chances to get  lynched (if we lynch the Grinch today that's no good for Grandma ), and the Grinch likely wouldn't go so hard toward pushing Grandma, rather than letting Grandma get themselves lynched.

[Oricorio]

Do they need to be? Grandma wants to keep the Grinch alive for as long as possible so Grandma has more chances to get  lynched (if we lynch the Grinch today that's no good for Grandma ), and the Grinch likely wouldn't go so hard toward pushing Grandma, rather than letting Grandma get themselves lynched.

I guess it depends on how comfortable the Grinch is with the gamestate. There's a 50% chance that the Grinch knows who Grandma is, and they likely know that that's a good option to push if things go wrong for them (as Grandma would cooperate with them). That said, the Grinch may not see the need to deal with Grandma as they'll be removed from the game anyway. Maybe the Grinch is hedging their bets right now, but it would be weird for them to outright townread the player they believe to be Grandma now when they know they may have to flip their read on that slot at any time.

[XiaoMigros]

Hi, I remember receiving my role message and then forgetting the game existed. Sorry! I'm a little busy rn but will try to say something not worthless this evening.

[Oricorio]

Hi, I remember receiving my role message and then forgetting the game existed. Sorry! I'm a little busy rn but will try to say something not worthless this evening.

Then say something not worthless. What are your thoughts on the THC/davy situation?

[Oricorio]

Time to start digging into people's ISOs (frustrating here due to a lack of multiquote and a real ISO feature), starting with Toby:

Hi I'm here I've a busy day out today but I'll try catch-up before phase end

Hi sorry I haven't managed to catch-up I've had a heavy few days staying with family but I'm back home and can play catchup tomorrow

Does anyone want me to look at someone/something specific and I can focus myself on that when I get home tonight

Basically, their only two posts are just saying they'll post later, I mean come on man. Wolflean if he keeps this up

[Oricorio]

Now for math

Howdy y'all

Will we know if we're on the naughty list? Either way, we'll have to watch for some unusual voting patterns

Well, this opener has more substance than some other people's, so there's that at least. Asks one setup-related question, although the latter half of the sentence is vague and needed to be elaborated later on.

To specify, an example of an unusual voting pattern in my interpretation would be a player voting for someone that seemingly doesn't swing things but turns out to be the decider when naughty list is factored in

Clarification. I can kind of see where he is coming from with this, still it would require a lot of guesswork. Minor townlean I guess, not sure the Grinch would want to bring attention to that.

I've seen a few bring this up but for everyone else - thoughts on TZP "missing" this?

I've done this before and it was very genuine so I could see it but it doesn't feel like a TZP move

Not sure I like this push, though. It seems pretty weak, and it doesn't really commit to anything, making it look like he's waiting for someone else to jump on TZP here.

Since the list is cumulative, the lynch victim could be down a vote or two and still lose in later days

Elaboration of previous point, see above.

Overall a mixed bag. I see nothing that looks out of the ordinary for math's wolf play in The Lantern Keepers, but nothing out of the ordinary for his town play in Luigi. He's "unpolarized", as the folks in MU would say. Still, in the former game he couldn't keep up the momentum D2 while in the latter he seemingly played strongger in the later phases, so perhaps that could be an indicator.

[Oricorio]

TZP:

Finally! Welcome back everybody. Far too long it has been.

Opening fluff post, nothing else for the rest of the phase.

Tough scene for the Grynch!

Davy it's likely but not guaranteed that we have two mislynches. Absolute worst case scenario is 1 wolf and 3 humans going into N3, which in a usual game would go to D3, but if a surviving human has been naughty-listed it'd go to the Grynch based on Specs' ref call there.

@SpecsFlyer17 what happens if Santa tries to nice-list the Grynch?

Oricorio, in your posts you've referred to a thunderdome and F3. What do those mean? Is F3 final three?

My thoughts on players so far:
I don't think Xiao, Toby, and Math being largely or completely MIA is alignment-indicative--not yet at least. I agree with the consensus that THC sounds slightly towny. I agree with the consensus that BDS sounds slightly wolfy. Davy and Oricorio are driving the discussion, and I disagree with Davy that Oricorio's Grandma-talk is reminscent of Oricorio's Strange Man-talk in TWG CXVII. In the postgame for that one, Oricorio pointed out that he was dropping a lot of pro-Strange Man propaganda, and he's doing the exact opposite in this one. I'd say he's more likely Grynch than Grandma, but I'd still lean town. Davy I'm not sure yet.

Opening part is a little strange. Some people claim there's a rule where someone who comments on an event that is unfortunate for the wolves is likely to be a wolf themselves, but I'm not sure that applies here. Then we have basically reiterating stuff I already said, a mechanical question, and a request for definitions, nothing too substantive. For the thoughts, seems to mostly agree with what davy already said, only diverging on his read on me, though doesn't really use that to draw any alignment-related conclusions on him.

Just reviewed the roles and I totally missed that the Grynch has a seer ability. If you're Santa and a seer claims to you, don't take for granted that it's Rudolph—though I suppose the Grynch won't know which blue he seered.

Missed something in the setup. Given the last game, this does not seem to be an unusual occurrence. Granted, if TZP was the Grinch it would be a bit weird to miss this detail, but maybe that's the cause of the frustration (also see last game).

To be continued

[Oricorio]

That's generous of you, Math, but you are talking about a guy who thought that having TWG Waluigi claim a blue seering was a solid strategy!

Oh, his only post on the second post is a defense from math's point (though also a bit weird in that the same point can be used against them?) Yeah, I think TZP is a wolflean, even if there are a couple things that make me think twice.

[Oricorio]

Indeed. I have just gotten online for tbe first time since the game started.

I have a question for Specs, since the game post doesn't seem very clear about it. Is there a wolfing at night?

Opening post, which I believe I have covered before. To put it simply, that is a strange question to ask as a wolf, especially as it's clarified in the wolf's role PM, and faking it would require a large amount of refuge in audacity that you don't really see from solo wolves. Also, given that they are responding to someone else's post, this doesn't look like a planned opener.

Yeah, that's why I was confused.

So, my initial feelings:
1. davy's initial post reads very town to me. He definitely feels like the person I trust most as of now. I could definitely see him being Grandma, but imo Grandma is more likely to team with town than with the Grinch, anyway.
2. BDS and Oricorio both talked about lynching Grandma as being bad, as if she doesn't get ousted from the game after D2 anyway.
3. On top of that, while Oricorio has certainly added a lot to discuss about, BDS's responses have felt reactionary at best. They don't seem to adding any meaningful commentary on what they're responding to, and don't even always have more to say than what basically amounts to "Yeah, that makes sense".
4. Xiao has yet to post, and Toby, math, and TZP have one post each with none amounting to much. I would like to hear more from these four, but there's nothing to make them inherently sus yet, since the game only just started.
5. Specs sus.

In the spirit of Oricorio, and since I never actually did this for him when he asked before, I shall give a GTH. GTH BDS is Grinch and davy is Grandma.

A few of these stances are a little strange though. I don't know why Grandma would try to team up with town when achieving their wincon is anti-town, and a Grinch-Grandma "alliance" (well, as much of an alliance as you can get with one side wanting to lynch the other) seems more likely given that their wincons are mutually beneficial. Consider this: If we lynch the Grinch today, Grandma automatically loses, so Grandma would want to prevent that from happening. I believe davy already pointed out the flaws in logic in the second point, and I won't repeat that here. In my game as  the Strange Man, I was posting pro-Strange Man propaganda (as TZP pointed out), and this does feel like "pro-Grandma propaganda" in a sense. Fourth point is standard hedging on inactive players, and third is a bit vague (generally I'd like to see examples of what you mean when you say "BDS's responses have felt reactionary at best"

I never claimed you only replied. I said that your responses didn't amount to much more than just a reply. Your "additional content" felt very thin and meaningless.
I saw all that. That's exactly why I asked. It didn't mention anything about a wolfing in the Grinch's role description, but there were mentions of it elsewhere, so I wanted to be absolutely clear on it.
From what Oricorio said, GTH would be what you would say if someone put a gun to your and told you to give an answer or die. With the current information, davy is the active player that seemed most likely to be Grandma since he was the only one not vocally against a Grandma lynch. I believe he even said it would make sense to do under certain circumstances, though I could be misremembering (can't look back while making a post on mobile). I also mentioned that I could see him as Grandma in my list of stuff, so the GTH really wasn't out of nowhere. As the others hadn't really weighed in much on anything at that point, I couldn't GTH any of them as Grandma.

Knowing that "there were mentions of it elsewhere" makes the question a bit weird, though if THC knew it was in the Grinch's role PM then he would be less likely to pose it as Grandma, at least. The rest of it is clarifying why he thinks davy is Grandma, which, while I think he may be onto something there (and as he originally posted that suspicion N1, so it's not like he miraculously figured it out by trying to wolf davy) I don't particularly care for it.

Overall, there are things that are town-indicative and things that are Grandma-indicative, but nothing wolf-indicative, so I'm not interested in pursuing a lynch on THC today.