TWG CXX: Lynch the Grynch Game Thread

[Oricorio]

I've seen a few bring this up but for everyone else - thoughts on TZP "missing" this?

I've done this before and it was very genuine so I could see it but it doesn't feel like a TZP move

Could be faked, but looks real GTH. I'm not sure why we're so worried about the Grinch claiming Seer when that'd be an incredibly risky move at best, as it would force a thunderdome with the real Seer. The best they could hope for is assuming that the Grinch is Grandma claiming for the reasons I've described, but even then they'd be outed when they aren't ejected from the game.

[therealmathguy]

But how exactly would that happen? A vote that is decided by the naughty list would essentially be a vote that was tied otherwise, in which case every vote would have been "decisive" anyway

Since the list is cumulative, the lynch victim could be down a vote or two and still lose in later days

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I've seen a few bring this up but for everyone else - thoughts on TZP "missing" this?

I've done this before and it was very genuine so I could see it but it doesn't feel like a TZP move

That's generous of you, Math, but you are talking about a guy who thought that having TWG Waluigi claim a blue seering was a solid strategy!

[Oricorio]

Since the list is cumulative, the lynch victim could be down a vote or two and still lose in later days

Is it? I assumed that it would only last for the next day, but if it's permanent, that could fuck up parity even more. If we have two lynches, that means three chances for the Grinch to put someone on the naughty list, so even F5 could be an outright wolf win! That seems a bit absurd

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Is it? I assumed that it would only last for the next day, but if it's permanent, that could fuck up parity even more. If we have two lynches, that means three chances for the Grinch to put someone on the naughty list, so even F5 could be an outright wolf win! That seems a bit absurd

The way I understood it was "the list is cumulative" meant that the Grinch couldn't put the same person on the list multiple times unless Santa removed that person, but the vote removal only affects the first day phase after they've been put on the list.

Also, now that I think of it, if Santa is hit by the Grinch's power, they should claim publicly, because the Grinch already knows their identity.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I've seen a few bring this up but for everyone else - thoughts on TZP "missing" this?

I've done this before and it was very genuine so I could see it but it doesn't feel like a TZP move

To be fair, for this game I feel there are a lot of little details that are easy to miss (though whether the Grinch's seering is a "little detail" is less certain).

That being said, I liked TZP's observation because the Grinch can figure out who Santa is with his naughty list power and then claim to them—bonus points if the Grinch has already seered & wolfed Rudolph as well so they can be even more sure that Rudolph won't get in the way. Even if it's not the optimal strategy for a wolf, it's something to keep in mind that I feel like the wolf would've rather just not said publicly.

Also, since I haven't seen you say anything about it yet: What are your thoughts on all the players who have substantially posted so far (everyone except Toby and Xiao I'd say, though I imagine we should hear more from them soon)? Most of your posts have remained fairly short, so I'd like to see more of your thoughts.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

It seems like you just skimmed over my posts without actually realizing that I added additional content other than just replying to the quotes.

I never claimed you only replied. I said that your responses didn't amount to much more than just a reply. Your "additional content" felt very thin and meaningless.

Also, given that the possibility of losing a special to a wolfing was mentioned several times (especially by Davy, see this post for an example just above THC's post), I personally find it a bit difficult to believe it was a genuine question from THC, unless he was speedskimming the whole thread.

I saw all that. That's exactly why I asked. It didn't mention anything about a wolfing in the Grinch's role description, but there were mentions of it elsewhere, so I wanted to be absolutely clear on it.

Based on your post, I understand your reasoning for why you think I'm the Grinch, but why do you think Davy might be Grandma? That sort of feels like it comes out of nowhere, especially with how many players hadn't made substantial posts yet as of your post.

From what Oricorio said, GTH would be what you would say if someone put a gun to your and told you to give an answer or die. With the current information, davy is the active player that seemed most likely to be Grandma since he was the only one not vocally against a Grandma lynch. I believe he even said it would make sense to do under certain circumstances, though I could be misremembering (can't look back while making a post on mobile). I also mentioned that I could see him as Grandma in my list of stuff, so the GTH really wasn't out of nowhere. As the others hadn't really weighed in much on anything at that point, I couldn't GTH any of them as Grandma.

[davy]

Feels strange for you to be doubling down on this. I can understand why THC might have missed the additional content of my posts—especially so if he's Grandma and doing it intentionally—because the fact there are a lot of quotes in my posts makes it seem (on a quick glance) like that content is replying to the quotes rather than extra. However, I don't think you have as much of an excuse other than trying to piggyback on THC while letting him take most of the blame if it turns out wrong.

So if we disregard your opening post and your TWC post, you had made two posts at that point, each of them broken up into two parts (because replying to two quotes) and only part of two of those four parts contained new content. I think THC's point stands based on that.

But, I've been liking the posts you have made this phase, and am leaning more neutral on you right now. For example, this next part of the very same post:

The Grinch wants to try and lynch Grandma. It's very possible they could try to push a lynch on whoever they tried to wolf today, with humans being none the wiser (especially if Frosty was the wolfing target and is the one who ends up getting lynched).

I wasn't sure if we could use the info from the failed wolfing and Oricorio didn't think we could, so I'm really liking you pointing out we should be wary of someone pushing a lynch too eagerly.

Of course, now that this has been pointed out in the topic, the wolf may not even go for a potential grandma lynch and try to leverage the knowledge they gained from having their wolfing failed otherwise.

[davy]

TZP has shown up a bunch more after only making an opening post in N1, and I'm not very impressed by the contents of his posts. The most content was his thoughts on players so far at the start of the phase, and he just agreed with what was said earlier except that he thought Oricorio was more likely to be Grynch than Grandma than I did.

Slight wolf lean rn

[davy]

I've seen a few bring this up but for everyone else - thoughts on TZP "missing" this?

I've done this before and it was very genuine so I could see it but it doesn't feel like a TZP move

In all fairness, I had missed the line about the seering ability as well. It doesn't strike me as anything different from TZP missing the "Human seer can't seer anyone blue" from the previous game.

[davy]

Suspicion list:

Wolf/Grandma Lean

1. Oricorio - had made a lot of posts focussing on Grandma at the start of the game, and even still seems more engaged in the Grandma discussion than anything else in the game.
2. TZP - hasn't made many posts and posts haven't had a lot of content. I'm just expecting better from TZP, and I hope putting him high on the list will make those better posts follow!
3. Math - posts have been short and haven't contained too much substance. Lower on the list than TZP because it's more characteristic for Math. Still, I'd like to see more of him, to begin with a reads list like BDS requested.

Neutral lean

4. BDS - my initial suspicion has decreased now that BDS has posted a bunch more content. Not enough to change him to a human lean.
5-6. Toby and Xiao - inactivity is not alignment indicative to me at this stage of the game. I do hope they get active soon, as I know they can both play this game well, and I look forward to hearing their voices on what has happened so far.

Human lean

7. THC - I had a human lean on him before, and his only post since hasn't given me reason to change my lean.

8. Davy - Checked my role PM and it indeed says I'm an Elf 

[davy]

Tomorrow I'll have an event when the phase changes. I should be able to get online between work and the event, but I really don't want to get a phantom in case I don't.

Safety on davy

I'm really not confident in any of my suspicions atm, and I would like to avoid a repeat of Lantern game d1 (where I placed an early vote on Oricorio which ended up deciding the lynch away from wolf!Specs)

[SpecsFlyer17]

Rules clarification. Math's interpretation of the naughty list is correct. Keep in mind that while the naughty list can expand each night, Santa can take people off, as well as prevent new people from joining.

[Oricorio]

Suspicion list:

Wolf/Grandma Lean

1. Oricorio - had made a lot of posts focussing on Grandma at the start of the game, and even still seems more engaged in the Grandma discussion than anything else in the game.
2. TZP - hasn't made many posts and posts haven't had a lot of content. I'm just expecting better from TZP, and I hope putting him high on the list will make those better posts follow!
3. Math - posts have been short and haven't contained too much substance. Lower on the list than TZP because it's more characteristic for Math. Still, I'd like to see more of him, to begin with a reads list like BDS requested.

Neutral lean

4. BDS - my initial suspicion has decreased now that BDS has posted a bunch more content. Not enough to change him to a human lean.
5-6. Toby and Xiao - inactivity is not alignment indicative to me at this stage of the game. I do hope they get active soon, as I know they can both play this game well, and I look forward to hearing their voices on what has happened so far.

Human lean

7. THC - I had a human lean on him before, and his only post since hasn't given me reason to change my lean.

8. Davy - Checked my role PM and it indeed says I'm an Elf 

1. Already went over this, and aren't you gonna look at any of my many posts that aren't about Grandma?
2. What exactly about those posts is lacking "content", and what about that is wolf-indicative? Saying posts don't have "content" is like the easiest way to contrive suspicion on them
3. If it's "typical" of math, why are you wolfleaning them?
4. What exactly about that "content" makes him no longer a wolflean?
5-6. Why are you wolfreading players for not providing "content" yet giving a pass to these people?
7. What do you think about the latest post?
8. If your role PM says "elf", then why are you voting for yourself over the six people you don't townread?

These "reads" look fake. Granted, given the self-vote, this might be Grandma

[Oricorio]

Another thing that's weird about davy's list is that it has only one townlean. Townies will usually try to find at least one more townlean, and davy's list suggests that they want to be open to any potential lynch. Their one townlean is the player who townleaned them, meaning it can be read as pocketing. However, given the self-vote when a wolf would have many options to vote after that post, makes me think that that post looking suspicious is kind of the point