TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[Oricorio]

Voting Specs for the time being, for a few reasons.

1. In the thread in response to Toby's suggested plan, he didn't have much issue with the loss of the two human specials, since their powers can be used after death. However, in PMs, he started pushing back a little more against the idea, stating that the wolves could easily cause chaos with it. This doesn't read to me like a gradual shift in opinion, more like someone simulating human logic in individual conversations, but not maintaining a natural flow of deliberation/deduction. I did this in Nothing Special 2 as a wolf and drew way too much attention to myself because of it.

2.He responded immediately to TWG Waluigi showing up in the thread. If we're right that Waluigi is the wolf-aligned alt, I think most people would expect the wolf player to distance himself from the alt—maybe even to play time zone games. Responding immediately seems like it could well be a reverse psychology play, though I admit this is nowhere near conclusive on its own.

3. Saying something like "waaaaaaa" is just 100% something Specs would do lol. Math can verify this if he would like, that's Specs' irl sense of humor to a T.

Suddenly goes all in on a case on Specs, this seemingly came from nowhere. It feels kind of lukewarm in hindsight

[Oricorio]

^^ I feel like I should say something about this. For the last couple of games people have been talking about me like my tone has changed significantly, like I don't talk much now and when I do I'm just all business. I really don't feel like my tone has changed all that much from the way I normally play, but if it has and I'm not aware of it, it's probably because of a new job I've started. When the game revival started earlier this summer I had quite a bit of free time in front of a computer that I just don't have the luxury of now. Still really enjoy playing with you all, it's more just that my bandwidth is fuller than it was, and I'm not able to be mulling things over as actively as I was a couple of months ago.

Anyway, I am rolling up to church now and almost certainly won't be able to tag in before phase end. My leans right now are wolf on Specs, human on BDS, neutral on Oricorio and Toby, completely unsure on Math and Xiao, and I'll be happy to give my reasons for those later on. I'm comfortable leaving my vote on Specs for reasons stated earlier, but I also wouldn't be unhappy to see Math/Xiao lynched, as I feel like most people don't have much of a read on them yet, and Specs talks enough that I could feel more conclusively about him one way or another based on further developments.

TZP out

First paragraph is fluff, second hedges on everyone except BDS and Specs

[Oricorio]

Rereading the end of D1 I'm honestly surprised and a little concerned at how much momentum that Specs lynch picked up toward the end. When Specs changed his vote to Math, that made it 3 on Math to 2 on him (and 1 on Xiao from N1P2). N1P2 then flipped to Specs to tie it up 3-3, and then Toby pushed the lynch onto Specs in the last half hour of the phase. As a human, I was already somewhat ambivalent about whether I wanted to lynch Specs or a less active player, and I think that most human players would feel the same, so I could interpret Toby's last-minute vote switch as a no-other-choice protection move for Math as a wolf partner. If Specs wasn't a wolf, I'd say this suggests itself to me as the most likely possibility.

N1P2, it's very likely that you're going to die tonight--please don't go gently! If you have info on the side from the alts or especially the Chosen One, please share it before you die so that that player doesn't have to expose himself.

Was the main pusher of Specs, but now that Specs has died seems to have buyer's remorse and is suspecting people on the Specs wagon.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Voting someone who is seered green is... a choice. Still think threalmathguy is a good option, and if not him then TZP. Lynching me would ruin my perfectly good PoE

In a game with a master wolf and redirection (that we have no way of knowing triggered) there's only so much we can trust seerings even when we do know the true human seer.

As someone who voted Math yesterday I fully understand the reasons why he would make a good lynch, but that again plays into the wolves' mindgames—did they release results of a Math seering (even after their slip-up) to try and direct us toward him, or away from him? As of right now I'm personally inclined to believe they deliberately tried to paint a target on him or just picked another random name to throw out.

[Oricorio]

I find myself profoundly offended that I am not included in the pool of perfect grammar users!

In all seriousness, I'm also leaning toward an Oricorio vote right now and away from the Toby/Math pairing that I was considering during N2. My thinking on Oricorio is that he has been the one to point out and condemn the TWG Waluigi slip most strongly. After it happened, I've been looking closely for people to act embarrassed by or dismissive toward it, and Oricorio is the player who's done this far and away the most.

To me this reads like intentional, practiced contempt. Whether Oricorio made the slip himself accidentally and wants to get away from it as far as possible, or whether he has been planning to intentionally make Waluigi seem like a noob and make a meal out of the incompetence, there's a pattern here that I think is worth paying attention to. I also think that he's an obvious potential partner for Specs as well.

And for the second phase in a row, they spend their big effort post in an attempt to get a person lynched. This whole cycle of "slank then case then buyer's remorse" seems very opportunistic and preplanned. I'll have to look at the last game to see if it diverges with their past town behavior

[Oricorio]

TZP looked a bit more open and more willing to consider setup/alternate options? Here it looks like they're going through the motions. Time to look at math

[BlackDragonSlayer]

And for the second phase in a row, they spend their big effort post in an attempt to get a person lynched. This whole cycle of "slank then case then buyer's remorse" seems very opportunistic and preplanned. I'll have to look at the last game to see if it diverges with their past town behavior

TZP was a wolf in both TWG CXIV (Nothing Special) and TWG CXV (Just a Numbers' Game). In those games (especially the one I hosted) he seemed to be a lot more scheming behind the scenes, knowing when to fall back and let things ride, and press forward and take charge.

He mentioned having some PMs with N1P2, and I'm curious to see those, as I haven't seen them at all. If N1P2 would release them (as long as they don't contain sensitive info), I think that would be helpful.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

TWG CXV (Just a Numbers' Game)

look at me misremembering the name of my own game

that apostrophe should not be there

[Oricorio]

Had a lot to catch up on. My thoughts:

I do believe Waluigi wolf slipped. I'm not reading too hard into BDS's call out following.

I like Toby's plan of chosen one claiming to lamb, if no one counterclaims then I believe N1P2's claim will be fairly credible (I am not lamb)

I agree with reviving THC, it'll help to have a confirmed human for voting as early as possible

Their first real post and it's three of the most lukewarm takes imaginable.

[Oricorio]

Suspicion list:

Wolf lean
Waluigi - blue seer result, I don't believe it was a reaction test

Slight wolf lean
Specs - as one who likes Toby's plan, the pushback on it from Specs is strange. Also giving me wolf lean over Xiao is a result of either not reading carefully or having an agenda
Xiao - pushed back on the Toby plan and also the revival of THC (the "why rush" comment #130 stands out to me when it'll always be good to have more humans in the pool)

neutral
Oricorio - has brought good discussion to the table but one thing holding me back from human rating is that he acknowledged Waluigi's blue seering before it was called out, meaning it is possible that Oricorio made the slip

Slight human lean
BDS - I'll give points for the Waluigi callout and early game strategy but I'll take some away for immediately calling sus on Toby for wondering why he is supposedly the number one wolf target when it wasn't obvious to many of us. I think the pros outweigh the cons though and thus still give a human lean
Toby - cooked up a solid plan in the beginning that I think benefits humans and he would be a strong human lean if not for "confirmed" humans that I'm more confident in
TZP - mostly based on opposition of Specs who I am also suspicious of. Closer to the neutral than to strong human lean for me but for now an enemy of an enemy is a friend I guess?

Human lean
THC - wolfed
N1P2 - barring unlikely THC lamb and N1P2 wolf possibility, it seems we have found the lamb
Luigi - default opposite of Waluigi
Math - regular human as far as I know

Suspicion on Specs and Xiao, the latter of which is almost certainly town, though again these are lukewarm takes. Town leans besides Toby are hedgy.

[Oricorio]

Suspicion on Specs and Xiao, the latter of which is almost certainly town, though again these are lukewarm takes. Town leans besides Toby are hedgy.

Also seems to largely be sheeping Toby in terms of reads.

[Oricorio]

Ahh so the real THC didn't claim anything, that makes more sense.

Well then that makes N1P2/Toby/THC/CO (if not previously listed) a solid human core

Not confirmed for all obviously

Human core hasn't really changed from last readslist.

[Oricorio]

Since the last day cycle, my top two sus suspects have gone down. I believe Xiao is the more likely human of Xiao and Specs given the nature of their deaths (wolf vs lynch). I think Specs is a likely Waluigi, as well as Oricorio due to reaction of the first seering and the reasons TZP mentioned, and I still think it is possible they are wolves together. It's also probably easier to bash Waluigi for messing up if it's yourself.

I still want to believe in Toby and THC, but their reactions to my human reads were strange, THC more so than Toby. I read it more as a "think this through more" than anything too wolfy, but THC's "don't count me out as a wolf, I'd definitely wolf myself" before placing me at the top of the suspicion list was a strange reaction.

I'm not sold on BDS either, he's slid a little more neutral since my suspicion list. THC/BDS seems like the perfect pairing to go for a self wolf on day 1 and manufacture the Waluigi slip up/BDS callout. I think BDS and Toby/TZP probably go opposite ways and right now I'm leaning town on Toby/TZP. This isn't as strong of a theory in my mind though.

So for votes I'm between Oricorio, BDS and THC

Does change the perspective on THC, this and the BDS suspicion are probably the first contentious takes he's posted all game. Interesting that he chooses to keep the PoE open for now rather than immediately going for the easy mislynch here.

[Oricorio]

Anyway, most of math's posts are lukewarm enough that I can see them coming from either a lazy townie or a wolf that wants to blend in. Their last post diverges from that, though, so I'm interested in seeing where that leads. For now, I guess I'd be more comfortable voting TheZeldaPianist275

[Oricorio]

The main reason why I don't believe Specs is a wolf is because they don't fit comfortably with any of my PoE of math/TZP/Toby. If we're dealing with a deepwolf like BDS, though, they may be worth considering.