TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Well then that makes N1P2/Toby/THC/CO (if not previously listed) a solid human core

I wouldn't put myself or Toby in that list. As previously stated, if anyone would wolf themselves, it would be me. And Toby could just as easily be Master Wolf as any other green role.

the apparent chosen one counter claim was THC who was dead lol.

Based on the way N1P2 said it, it sounds more like TWG Waluigi claimed to be me. Which isn't true, so I feel it's pretty safe to assume TWG Luigi is the actual Aloof Seer, though I believe that's already been stated.

The issue I'm currently having is that TWG Waluigi's behavior seems to be in line with someone newer to TWG. However, as far as I can tell, only one newer player is still alive. The only way I could see TWG Waluigi continuing to make mistakes like this, since all the veterans have been active since the initial slip-up, would be for both wolves to be newer. I feel it's safe to assume Xiao wasn't a wolf, so the only pairing I could think of as being very viable is Specs/math. However, a veteran definitely could be playing this way to try and confuse us as well. I also wonder, since lots of people were saying to wait and see the N2 kill before reviving anyone, if Xiao was a wolf and the wolves thought they could get Xiao revived instead of me on N3? But that feels like a stretch. Either way, math is definitely at the top of my list right now. I'ma go reread some stuff and then post an actual suspicion list.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Suspicious
therealmathguy: Pretty much for the reasons I previously stated. It also feels like they've been very absent and easily jumping on bandwagons. The posts I just reread seemed to exclusively be either agreeing with someone else or restating something already said.

Neutral/Unsure
Toby: I have trouble reading Toby's posts since they always seem all over the place to me. Maybe that's why I have trouble trusting him. I haven't seen anything explicitly wolfy, though.
Oricorio: Someone mentioned that they were being more reserved this because they saw it as a little suspicious. Personally, I think it's because we mentioned last game that their aggressiveness was a little much for NSM TWG and I think they're just trying to be considerate and dial it back a bit. The only thing that felt off to me was their reaction to the claimed Oricorio seering. They they said "Believable, so I guess I'm not the Miller." just doesn't sit right with me. It feels a little forced.
TheZeldaPianist275: Has definitely been asking a lot of questions this game. I find it odd that he asked N1P2 why Xiao was killed. He did try and throw some shade on Toby for Toby's vote on D1, but the argument seemed pretty valid from the standpoint of someone who had only skimmed the posts and didn't read everything. I could understand missing Toby having already shown a possible want to vote for Specs.

Probably Human
BlackDragonSlayer: First off, BDS has just been playing in a way that seems very helpful for town. He's been one of the most active players, as well as being the one to call out TWG Waluigi on the blue result. I would like to point out that both Toby and Oricorio made posts before BDS called it out without saying/noticing it themselves. That's what really pushes him to human for me, since both Toby and Oricorio also have the other town-aligned read I have for BDS. None of them would have allowed TWG Waluigi to continue making mistakes after the first one. All three had been online very shortly after that, so I highly doubt they'd let their partner try to claim TWG Waluigi was me.

Human
Nana1Popo2: I mean... We all know this at this point.

That's all my thoughts as of right now.

[Toby]

I don't know if Oricorio playing more considerate  for NSM TWG is accurate. If he is playing to be more considerate for NSM and thus playing more reserved, I would expect him to also be considerate on his mafia foreign word choice as he was also called out on that in previous games. But he's still using foreign mafia terms like Scum, Bastard, WIFOM.

It might be true he's trying to play less aggressive due to the reaction last game but I'm not sure if I could say he's actively trying to be considerate fo NSM TWG

[Toby]

I could only see math guy being a wolf if Specs wasn't a wolf

Math guy and Oricorio could be a pairing just as I think Specs/Oricorio could be a pairing as they've not really looked at eachother this game. Oricorio did safety on math so there's just enough of a 'separation' there that could look like they tried to distance themselves. Math and TZP could be a pairing too but I think this one could be less likely as they both voted Specs together for the same reasoning and I think that's a little too obvious of a teaming for wolf partners

I was hoping math would have got seered last night to get a bit more info on him

[Oricorio]

So if the Seer results are to be believed, Toby and I aren't w/w. Of course, I knew that already, but now you have no excuse to not know that

[Oricorio]

I don't know if Oricorio playing more considerate  for NSM TWG is accurate. If he is playing to be more considerate for NSM and thus playing more reserved, I would expect him to also be considerate on his mafia foreign word choice as he was also called out on that in previous games. But he's still using foreign mafia terms like Scum, Bastard, WIFOM.

It might be true he's trying to play less aggressive due to the reaction last game but I'm not sure if I could say he's actively trying to be considerate fo NSM TWG

I've explained why I'm a little less active: combination of me wanting to take it a little easy after 1k posting in my last game and me also hosting a game on MU right now

[Oricorio]

Suspicious
therealmathguy: Pretty much for the reasons I previously stated. It also feels like they've been very absent and easily jumping on bandwagons. The posts I just reread seemed to exclusively be either agreeing with someone else or restating something already said.

Neutral/Unsure
Toby: I have trouble reading Toby's posts since they always seem all over the place to me. Maybe that's why I have trouble trusting him. I haven't seen anything explicitly wolfy, though.
Oricorio: Someone mentioned that they were being more reserved this because they saw it as a little suspicious. Personally, I think it's because we mentioned last game that their aggressiveness was a little much for NSM TWG and I think they're just trying to be considerate and dial it back a bit. The only thing that felt off to me was their reaction to the claimed Oricorio seering. They they said "Believable, so I guess I'm not the Miller." just doesn't sit right with me. It feels a little forced.
TheZeldaPianist275: Has definitely been asking a lot of questions this game. I find it odd that he asked N1P2 why Xiao was killed. He did try and throw some shade on Toby for Toby's vote on D1, but the argument seemed pretty valid from the standpoint of someone who had only skimmed the posts and didn't read everything. I could understand missing Toby having already shown a possible want to vote for Specs.

Probably Human
BlackDragonSlayer: First off, BDS has just been playing in a way that seems very helpful for town. He's been one of the most active players, as well as being the one to call out TWG Waluigi on the blue result. I would like to point out that both Toby and Oricorio made posts before BDS called it out without saying/noticing it themselves. That's what really pushes him to human for me, since both Toby and Oricorio also have the other town-aligned read I have for BDS. None of them would have allowed TWG Waluigi to continue making mistakes after the first one. All three had been online very shortly after that, so I highly doubt they'd let their partner try to claim TWG Waluigi was me.

Human
Nana1Popo2: I mean... We all know this at this point.

That's all my thoughts as of right now.

What are your thoughts on Specs, since you weren't around for their lynching? (And Xiao I guess, but the chances of them being a wolf now are miniscule)

[therealmathguy]

I'm not sure how I feel about math guy repetitively calling me a human today since a green seering from the human seer could still mean master wolf. But then I also don't know what game the wolves could be playing by calling their master wolf red

Yeah, nothing is confirmed. But I believe the green and red seer results are a frame attempt by the wolves. It is possible that Waluigi realized the jig was up and decided to give a deliberately suspicious result that no one would believe in order to "clear" you.

That being said, I'm not sure why you're not sure about getting a human read. Unless we are wolf partners, which you know is not true, I wouldn't be trying to clear you unless I thought we were both humans (and if you're a wolf idk why you're calling this out)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

THC, reading over Waluigi's PM that N1P2 posted (on mobile so linking is difficult), who do you think might have written it based on the posting style?

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

THC, reading over Waluigi's PM that N1P2 posted (on mobile so linking is difficult), who do you think might have written it based on the posting style?

I thought we weren't allowed to meta-game like that. But you're TWC, so it must be fine. Rereading posts from everyone, the only person other than me who never misses punctuation in this game is Specs. Specifically putting periods at the ends of sentences. A few people here do it fairly consistently, but not 100% of the time. However, Specs does, as does Waluigi it would seem.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Hm, now that you point it out, that does make sense. And who do you think might be Specs' most likely partner?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also, for all we know Waluigi could have made a careful effort to replicate your own posting style (or at least what they thought your posting style was), but I like the observation nonetheless.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

This games a mess

So Waluigi was claiming to be THC banking on him not being revived so the claim could hold true ? Or Waluigi claimed to be THC so wolf THC didn't look like a wolf and could be revived ?

With THC being alive and n1p2 not being dead, I guess that means both won't be wolfed by the time lynch or lose comes around on day 3? So by wolfing Xiao last night, THC has reason to survive longer.

Or is this all just a big distraction ?

Me being seered both red and green is interesting. I'm not sure if that means I'm a miller and the wolf was redirected or I'm just a green human and the wolves are trying to pin me up

I like this post from Toby; basically what I said, except put much more eloquently.

If THC isn't a wolf, then it makes perfect sense why Waluigi would claim to be THC regardless—Waluigi knows they messed up big time and absolutely would not want their real identity associated with the account. They probably knew that THC would be likely to be revived but simply wouldn't care in the interest in potentially causing chaos for an extra phase, which is the best they could have made of the bad scenario they found themselves in.

As has been discussed earlier, the two probabilities for what happened with the original Waluigi slip were:
- One wolf made the slip-up and the other was oblivious to their partner's use of Waluigi (i.e. the wolf that posted on Waluigi did so without the knowledge or approval of their partner).
- Both wolves were oblivious to the fact that the human seer seered blue players as green, meaning neither of them would have stopped the other from posting.

I recall people saying that the former was more likely (and to me, if that was the case my gut says a Toby/THC pair as the most likely candidate, as I think Toby would absolutely realize that blue players were seered green by the humans but THC might do a Leeroy Jenkins and go ahead without consulting Toby), but personally I think the latter is much more likely (I'd like to have faith that if one wolf was aware, they'd be cautious enough to make sure their partner understood and did not post on Waluigi without both of them signing off on any important posts). As I recall, I was the only player to acknowledge the fact that blue players are seered green by the human seer N1 (before the Waluigi slip even happened), so that means that most anybody could have fit into that scenario—though I think some people are more likely than others (waiting on THC's response to say more).

[Oricorio]

I like this post from Toby; basically what I said, except put much more eloquently.

If THC isn't a wolf, then it makes perfect sense why Waluigi would claim to be THC regardless—Waluigi knows they messed up big time and absolutely would not want their real identity associated with the account. They probably knew that THC would be likely to be revived but simply wouldn't care in the interest in potentially causing chaos for an extra phase, which is the best they could have made of the bad scenario they found themselves in.

As has been discussed earlier, the two probabilities for what happened with the original Waluigi slip were:
- One wolf made the slip-up and the other was oblivious to their partner's use of Waluigi (i.e. the wolf that posted on Waluigi did so without the knowledge or approval of their partner).
- Both wolves were oblivious to the fact that the human seer seered blue players as green, meaning neither of them would have stopped the other from posting.

I recall people saying that the former was more likely (and to me, if that was the case my gut says a Toby/THC pair as the most likely candidate, as I think Toby would absolutely realize that blue players were seered green by the humans but THC might do a Leeroy Jenkins and go ahead without consulting Toby), but personally I think the latter is much more likely (I'd like to have faith that if one wolf was aware, they'd be cautious enough to make sure their partner understood and did not post on Waluigi without both of them signing off on any important posts). As I recall, I was the only player to acknowledge the fact that blue players are seered green by the human seer N1 (before the Waluigi slip even happened), so that means that most anybody could have fit into that scenario—though I think some people are more likely than others (waiting on THC's response to say more).

Judging by my hosting experience, wolves here seem to not be that active. Might have been the players that randed wolf, but eh. But the bigger tell is that they don't seem to have noticed the obvious flaw in their plan that would have been caught with a decent amount of discussion. Also, Waluigi posted only a few minutes after phase change, so they could not have had the result for long. Perhaps they discussed on how they were willing to out their result, but didn't discuss the result being blue. In any case, I think assuming both wolves were too ignorant to realize the flaws despite discussing it would lead us down the wrong path, as I believe that narrows the PoE too much to be realistic. It's likely that one partner screwed up and the other is trying to take advantage of the screwup in order to gain towncred.

[Oricorio]

I thought we weren't allowed to meta-game like that. But you're TWC, so it must be fine. Rereading posts from everyone, the only person other than me who never misses punctuation in this game is Specs. Specifically putting periods at the ends of sentences. A few people here do it fairly consistently, but not 100% of the time. However, Specs does, as does Waluigi it would seem.

Do we really have enough of a sample size of Waluigi's posts to make that conclusion? The dead player being Waluigi seems too easy