TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[therealmathguy]

mathguy
Said THC was a confirmed human which I'm not sure if we can guarantee though. No word of possibility THC could be a wolf. - maybe calling THC a confirmed human is too obvious to do if math is a wolf ? More likely might just be an oversight on human part

You're right, I'm going off the assumption that wolves didn't wolf themselves night 1. Maybe I shouldn't use the word "confirmed" but I think it's one of the strongest indications of being human we have in the game so far

[therealmathguy]

Gonna try to be here for phase change but in case I'm not

specs

[Toby]

2 of Specs irl friends voting him, are you noticing a change in characteristic or are you both basing your reasoning on events?

[Nana1Popo2]

Im at work and dont have time to check until a couple hours from now. What is the lynch count? Like 2 and 2 and 1 i think?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm back (for a tiny bit longer at least), marginally less tired, and catching up.

neutral
Oricorio - has brought good discussion to the table but one thing holding me back from human rating is that he acknowledged Waluigi's blue seering before it was called out, meaning it is possible that Oricorio made the slip

I feel the similarly as I felt about Specs' earlier interaction with Waluigi. Even if he missed the fact that human seer can't seer blue, his comment was still in the context of "I think Waluigi's kind of suspicious." To me, it doesn't seem like it would be in a wolf's best interests to immediately cast shade on their wolf seer account.

oh wait its not possible for the town seer to seer blue lol then its def waluigi whos wolfy

Yeah, that's the issue. Except now Waluigi's suddenly trying to pivot is around as "wait it was actually a reaction test lol" which I'm not sure I buy.

I've actually heard the suggestion that hosts might choose a players role for them multiple times, so apparently it's quite a common to think among newer players and not everyone realises it's all literally random

What I do, personally, is I randomize the list until it says "You have randomized this list 10 times" and then that's the one I go with I also randomize both the role list and the player list (idr who, but it was on someone's suggestion that I started doing that) for that extra randomness factor.

Im at work and dont have time to check until a couple hours from now. What is the lynch count? Like 2 and 2 and 1 i think?

2 on Xiao (you/me)
2 on Specs (TZP/math)
1 on math (Oricorio)
1 on TZP (Specs)

?? Might have missed some votes somewhere along the line.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

IMO, I think Specs would warrant a seering (would be funny to have both seers seer Specs and see what happens), but I'm not sure if I'm fully on board with lynching Specs today.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also the fact that Waluigi hasn't revealed their "real" seering is a bit... odd. Further points against Waluigi.

[Toby]

I also just caught Specs interaction with Waluigi

GTH, the proximity of the Waluigi's post to the wolfing leads me to believe he's the Aloof Wolf, but thats just speculation.

I thought it was an odd comment to make though and I'm not sure on the relevance of post time next to phase being alignment indicative

If anything wouldn't wolves take longer to make a post after phase update because they have each other to discuss the seer result with first ?

... I just realised that Specs made the comment after the 'WAAA' and not the seer. But maybe Waluigi just intended to 'Waa' at the outcome of the phase update regardless

But yeah would wolf Specs make a comment to distance himself from twg Waluigi immediately if TWG Waluigi was his account? Was it possibly a 2 way plan where TWG Waluigi posts anything and Specs posts in quick succession to try distance Specs from being TWG Waluigi ? ... but then at that point there was no suspicion on TWG Waluigi to want to distance themselves ? But with the plan I proposed we should eventually find out if either TWG Waluigi or Twg Luigi are the aloof seer so maybe Specs was trying to distance immediately ??

This is all huge speculation and nothing concrete

I did just think the immediate GTH on TWG Waluigi being wolf was a bit odd
And also considering Specs had resistance towards my plan that could help us find out if TWG Luigi or Waluigi was the aloof seer... maybe it's adding up that Specs wanted to distance himself early from the tag wolf shaman

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I thought it was an odd comment to make though and I'm not sure on the relevance of post time next to phase being alignment indicative

That's what I thought initially (mentioned it here), but given that I posted after Waluigi had already revealed his "results" I didn't think too much of it. Regardless, I feel most wolves wouldn't want to immediately cast doubt on their seer account. Even without the slip-up that would've led to some initial hesitation toward the account.

[TWG Luigi]

luiiigiii

[Toby]

That's what I thought initially (mentioned it here), but given that I posted after Waluigi had already revealed his "results" I didn't think too much of it. Regardless, I feel most wolves wouldn't want to immediately cast doubt on their seer account. Even without the slip-up that would've led to some initial hesitation toward the account.

I would agree if I hadn't said a plan that should lead to either twg Luigi or twg Waluigi being dubbed the wolf. So it's entirely possible he was distancing himself to try get ahead of the game. But that's quite the mind game.

On that did all claims come through n1p2? Do you know which TWG account is the aloof seer ?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm gonna be headed out (unlikely to return before phase end) so I'm changing my vote to threalmathguy (unfortunately the vote is still tied after my vote change). Xiao has posted a bit more since I made my vote and honestly I wanna hear more before I'm fully convinced to lynch Xiao. My main reason to want to lynch Xiao is I thought Xiao was deliberately being quiet, but if continues to change I might get less suspicious of Xiao.

luiiigiii

you ok there bub

[SpecsFlyer17]

I'll own the mistakes of not recalling that TZP started PMs in the Assassin game, as well as not realizing how little Xiao had posted prior to a few hours ago. My bad.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Toby, I get what you're saying, but it's definitely not that complex. I tuned into the phase change, saw the WAAAA, and just threw out an initial GTH reaction. That's all.

[SpecsFlyer17]

TZP seems like wasted vote at this point, so Math. Still have some time to think and get the remains votes in.