TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[therealmathguy]

Suspicion list:

Wolf lean
Waluigi - blue seer result, I don't believe it was a reaction test

Slight wolf lean
Specs - as one who likes Toby's plan, the pushback on it from Specs is strange. Also giving me wolf lean over Xiao is a result of either not reading carefully or having an agenda
Xiao - pushed back on the Toby plan and also the revival of THC (the "why rush" comment #130 stands out to me when it'll always be good to have more humans in the pool)

neutral
Oricorio - has brought good discussion to the table but one thing holding me back from human rating is that he acknowledged Waluigi's blue seering before it was called out, meaning it is possible that Oricorio made the slip

Slight human lean
BDS - I'll give points for the Waluigi callout and early game strategy but I'll take some away for immediately calling sus on Toby for wondering why he is supposedly the number one wolf target when it wasn't obvious to many of us. I think the pros outweigh the cons though and thus still give a human lean
Toby - cooked up a solid plan in the beginning that I think benefits humans and he would be a strong human lean if not for "confirmed" humans that I'm more confident in
TZP - mostly based on opposition of Specs who I am also suspicious of. Closer to the neutral than to strong human lean for me but for now an enemy of an enemy is a friend I guess?

Human lean
THC - wolfed
N1P2 - barring unlikely THC lamb and N1P2 wolf possibility, it seems we have found the lamb
Luigi - default opposite of Waluigi
Math - regular human as far as I know

[XiaoMigros]

Xiao - pushed back on the Toby plan and also the revival of THC (the "why rush" comment #130 stands out to me when it'll always be good to have more humans in the pool)

but we are nowhere near lylo and can always bring back thc later??

[XiaoMigros]

my thoughts on the toby/bds situation: bds is probably the miller, because of manti rule and also because it sounds like a role that davy would give him

[XiaoMigros]

Xiao hasn't shown up lately... but Waluigi has? Granted, Waluigi is multiple people if they're truly the wolf seer, and math/Xiao would align with the times Waluigi was seen active if nothing else

i mean im almost certain, like most people here, that waluigi is the wolf account (unless luigi 'seered' oricorio, the master wolf) but i know these forums and would be smart enough not to ignore the online times lol

[davy]

my thoughts on the toby/bds situation: bds is probably the miller, because of manti rule and also because it sounds like a role that davy would give him

Roles are decided by random.org. There is no point trying to figure out what role a host would "give" a specific player per consequence.

[XiaoMigros]

ah okay nevermind then

[XiaoMigros]

oh wait its not possible for the town seer to seer blue lol then its def waluigi whos wolfy

[XiaoMigros]

i will aim to post a suspicion list later today

[Oricorio]

my thoughts on the toby/bds situation: bds is probably the miller, because of manti rule and also because it sounds like a role that davy would give him

Yeah, if that actually happened it would be called bastardry and I'm a bit weirded out that you brought that up

[XiaoMigros]

excuse me?

[Oricorio]

excuse me?

Why would you think a host predetermines what roles a player gets? Have you even hosted before? Doing such a thing is considered a major violation of game integrity and assuming it has happened is in my opinion disrespectful to the host, but I guess that's a topic for another day

Anyway, what do you think of the people voting you?

[davy]

Please all remember to adhere to rule 16: Be nice. Have fun. Be a good sport.

[Toby]

Some thoughts on Xiao and math guy

mathguy
Believes Waluigi wolf slipped, but didnt want to read into BDS calling it out - I thought it was an interesting point not to want to read into BDS calling it out. I thought it was an interesting catch and leaned human on BDS for it
Supported SL lamb claim so CO could claim to them - but did so after the SL had already claimed so kind of null
Was for THC being revived tonight to also help prove SL claim. Said THC was a confirmed human which I'm not sure if we can guarantee though. No word of possibility THC could be a wolf. - maybe calling THC a confirmed human is too obvious to do if math is a wolf ? More likely might just be an oversight on human part

Xiao

post to receive emails

I think this is an odd opener and not one Xiao has ever done before. It's like he wants to post but was afraid of what to say.
-felt like my plan 'costed too many humans' I didn't follow? But I think Specs and BDS had same reservations so they can't all be wolves. But maybe he was just piggy backing on their resistance so the plan wouldn't go ahead and we find out which TWG account is the CO.
-wasn't for reviving THC right now. If Xiao is a wolf this would suggest to me that THC probably isn't a wolf. I think not reviving our night 1 target can be quite damaging for the humans so I'm not sure if wolf Xiao would be so openly against it

——

Some separate thoughts on reviving THC:
The thing is if we don't revive THC and want to wait for another night kill, n1p2 is probably going to be killed n2, so another night kill won't happen until n3, which means can't be revived n4. N4 could be passed the lynch or lose point so we should revive by night 3. It could be possible THC is a wolf, so it might be an idea to hold our revive until night 3 and see if the night 2 kill feels like a better option? Or we can at least discuss our options come day 2. I don't think not having an extra human day 2 is that damaging as humans still have a lot of numbers. I also think it's likely that n1p2 will be wolfed tonight so THC might still be the only option for revival come night 3.

—

Between math and Xiao I'm not sure. If both are going to be quiet I'd rather lunch one to help process of elimination for later game. Xiao is usually more active so could post more later but then it's odd for him to be quiet, and with the first opener of the game it felt like he had resistance with posting and unsure what to say rather than it come natural

[Toby]

Yeah, if that actually happened it would be called bastardry and I'm a bit weirded out that you brought that up

@Xiao fyi I don't think Oricorio is calling you a bastard or anything of the sort. He seems to come from a more mafia style forum rather than werewolf game and mafia uses vulgar language such as bastard or scum as meanings for other things.

I've never been clear on what bastard actually means in mafia terms though

Also @Oricorio Xiao has never hosted and I believe only played his first twg when the games were revived a few months ago - so I don't think he's questioning integrity of the host, just hasn't had experience hosting or how roles are generally selected. I've actually heard the suggestion that hosts might choose a players role for them multiple times, so apparently it's quite a common to think among newer players and not everyone realises it's all literally random

[Toby]

Thinking along the lines of players who have been quiet, TZP also hasn't posted much this game. Xiao actually has more posts. But doing a comparison TZP's posts are more content filled. TZP's tone this game also seems similar to his previous game where he was human, but still a change in tone from his games before that which is probably just non alignment indicative.

I'll be interested to see what Xiaos suspicion list looks like and if we would be likely to get more content from him in the game