TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I was wondering if it was Xiao and especially with BDS revealing N1P2 wanted to lynch the CO, voted Xiao, and then changed their mind after the Luigi post - that adds up. Also given that we've all been active and denied being CO, and Luigi hasn't even given us a seer result yet - I think it probably confirms it as Xiao.

Again, placing votes on Xiao came before Xiao claimed. After Xiao claimed, N1P2 proposed lynching Xiao anyway.

And feeding into the BDS is wolf theory, it does make sense why he would be resistant about revealing the chosen one if he wolfed them once he found out. N1P2 being alive was keeping all suspicion off BDS as he was trusted - but when it comes down to it BDS was only trusted based on an initial hunch on a day 1 post.

Wolfing N1P2 would've put me in a bigger position of trust since I would've been the one to "confirm" the real seer. If I had wolfed N1P2, this situation wouldn't even be happening right now.

And again, you're ignoring all the other stuff that doesn't make sense with me as a wolf.

Keeping N1P2 alive longer also gave BDS more content for 'well if I was a wolf then I could have done xyz...'.

And, again, your idea of me being a wolf relies on me making wildly sub-optimal plays.

and given THC's recent unwillingness to find the wolves this phase, a partnership there could make sense? And if there are 2 wolves left alive then today really is mislynch or lose.

I actively proposed the idea that THC could've been a wolf who wolfed himself to deliberately be revived. There's no reason for me to do that as a wolf if THC was my partner. Again, me being a wolf wholly depends on you believing I'd actively shoot myself in the foot repeatedly when better options are right in front of me.

It would also explain why this conversation between them felt awkwardly pre planned

literally nothing about that conversation feels pre-planned

[BlackDragonSlayer]

At this point, I'm fully confident that at least one of Toby and math is a wolf. The problem is, I'm having trouble telling which one.

Still hoping we get seer results. I'll be back, hopefully before noon.

[Toby]

Suspicion list:

Wolf lean
Waluigi - blue seer result, I don't believe it was a reaction test

Slight wolf lean
Specs - as one who likes Toby's plan, the pushback on it from Specs is strange. Also giving me wolf lean over Xiao is a result of either not reading carefully or having an agenda
Xiao - pushed back on the Toby plan and also the revival of THC (the "why rush" comment #130 stands out to me when it'll always be good to have more humans in the pool)

neutral
Oricorio - has brought good discussion to the table but one thing holding me back from human rating is that he acknowledged Waluigi's blue seering before it was called out, meaning it is possible that Oricorio made the slip

Slight human lean
BDS - I'll give points for the Waluigi callout and early game strategy but I'll take some away for immediately calling sus on Toby for wondering why he is supposedly the number one wolf target when it wasn't obvious to many of us. I think the pros outweigh the cons though and thus still give a human lean
Toby - cooked up a solid plan in the beginning that I think benefits humans and he would be a strong human lean if not for "confirmed" humans that I'm more confident in
TZP - mostly based on opposition of Specs who I am also suspicious of. Closer to the neutral than to strong human lean for me but for now an enemy of an enemy is a friend I guess?

Human lean
THC - wolfed
N1P2 - barring unlikely THC lamb and N1P2 wolf possibility, it seems we have found the lamb
Luigi - default opposite of Waluigi
Math - regular human as far as I know

Math's early suspicion list was good
I like the amount of human leans which shows he's not just trying to throw people under the bus but also trying to find the humans

You're right, I'm going off the assumption that wolves didn't wolf themselves night 1. Maybe I shouldn't use the word "confirmed" but I think it's one of the strongest indications of being human we have in the game so far

This post was when he called out THC as confirmed human. Given now he seems to be pointing shade at a THC/BDS pairing - I'm thinking his reaction was genuine to calling THC confirmed human - and not him trying to false confirm his wolf buddy so they could get revived.

I'm not sure I follow the logic in determining which Luigi is the wolf but I guess we'll hear more that'll clear it up.

What I do know though is if N1P2 is confident in which seer is real, then Toby is likely human because the wolves wouldn't want to frame their master wolf

Another example of clearing a human. But this one I'm unsure of because I don't know why I got town read for the green seering but then he glossed over the green seering on Oricorio and didn't give it the same weight - especially when it was night 1 and chance of redirection is slimmer.

I'm inclined to believe this is a genuine accident and not a roundabout way of fake claiming. That being said, we have to be aware that any seering will be unreliable now

His response to BDS's 'slip' I'm not sure if it was genuine or if he was trying to play along with the slip to try give it more credit. I think the fact he called attention to it is worth noting though, and recognising it was a slip he wasn't afraid to interact with it

TLDR; I am accusing BDS of being a wolf.

Now this calls into question why THC has been hiding this as well. If this is the outcome you saw as "obvious," you might have some explaining to do as well.

Humans, let me know what you think before I lock in.

His recent accusation against BDS is BOLD for a wolf to do, given the pedestal that BDS has been sitting on this game. I feel like there'd be easier lynches just going for me? but he was town reading me for most of the game so maybe he's trying to keep consistent with that. It's possible that he's a lone wolf so needs to play the long game and build trust with me. But I do think going against BDS would be a very bold move as a wolf. I suppose if he's trying to buddy with me and there's a math/TZP partnership it could make sense though

[Toby]

I wouldn't, if it weren't for the fact that Toby seemed to have jumped on the math train right after that. Unvote.

I mean you placed a vote and this could be the last phase. I'm going to look into the person you vote for to see if I agree.

[Toby]

Also if it helps I figure I'll share a PM I had with N1P2 regarding Waluigi
Me:

Hey, I was going to ask in topic but I didn't want the wolves to consider it if they haven't already - but I'm wondering if you'd be able to read into the times that TWG Waluigi PM'd you?

N1P2:

Not sure if it could tell anything but but some users are in completely different time zones to others on the forum so it's worth a try

All i know is they messaged me at 5am my time (im in arizona / mst)
I think they are either a very early riser or an east coaster or more (ori and thc are sus of this respectively)

if we can use the PM time that Waluigi was sending PM's then Oricorio, THC, and myself actually fit into being awake 5am PST time. Waluigi could have just like set an alarm during the night to throw N1P2 off, or 1/2 of the wolves are likely to be Oricorio or THC (or myself I guess). I'm not sure if it applies to anyone else not mentioned

[therealmathguy]

1. Again, for reasons I mentioned in my prior post, gamestate doesn't make sense if I were a wolf, and to think I'm a wolf would have to be ignoring all of these to various degrees. If I were a wolf, this would be an incredibly sloppy game for me, to say the least, with me intentionally dancing around wolves' win condition and deliberately sabotaging myself instead of making optimal, obvious plays.

But obvious is not always optimal. As someone who keeps bringing up veteran player status, you could be trying to dismiss yourself from the conversation when a wolf makes an unexpected play. That's how I see it

[therealmathguy]

But this one I'm unsure of because I don't know why I got town read for the green seering but then he glossed over the green seering on Oricorio and didn't give it the same weight - especially when it was night 1 and chance of redirection is slimmer.

His recent accusation against BDS is BOLD for a wolf to do, given the pedestal that BDS has been sitting on this game. I feel like there'd be easier lynches just going for me? but he was town reading me for most of the game so maybe he's trying to keep consistent with that. It's possible that he's a lone wolf so needs to play the long game and build trust with me. But I do think going against BDS would be a very bold move as a wolf. I suppose if he's trying to buddy with me and there's a math/TZP partnership it could make sense though

I gave your green reading more weight because it came with a wolf's red reading. It looked like you were being framed.

And yes, my recent accusation is bold. I'm aware I've drawn lots of suspicion toward myself and that if I'm wrong we could lose the game. I took a gamble by posting that but I believe it.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

But obvious is not always optimal. As someone who keeps bringing up veteran player status, you could be trying to dismiss yourself from the conversation when a wolf makes an unexpected play. That's how I see it

Let me put it this way:
If you genuinely believe I'm a wolf, you're essentially saying that I've been chugging stupid juice all game and making plays that actively harm my chance of winning simply for the sake of subverting expectations.

(On mobile rn, should be back on computer within 30 minutes)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Quick thoughts:

Bar seering results, here are who I think the most likely wolf pairs are:
- Toby/TZP (they've been on the same page basically this whole phase and have been directing most of their efforts at bashing my credibility)
- Toby/THC (would explain gamestate well and why certain things happened the way they did—Xiao seering N1 and Math seering N2 means Xiao would've been wolfed without being redirected if THC was the dead redirection wolf; I'm just not sure if Toby'd go through with such a crazy plan as wolfing THC)
- Math/TZP (would explain Specs' lynch over someone like Math and Waluigi slip was likely genuine in this case)
- Math/THC (I feel like THC would absolutely be able to pull off wolfing himself in this pairing; both have been laying pretty low except for Math doing a 360 and joining Toby/TZP's accusations against me. THC voting Math as a subversion while knowing he's not in danger of actually getting lynched)

Most likely individual wolves:
- Toby
- TZP
- Math
- THC

Unless we get seer results I will likely vote for Toby. He's been accusing me of exaggerating or straight-up lying while he's been actively misrepresenting what I've been saying and arguing against that instead of what I actually said.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Most likely individual wolves:
- Toby
- TZP
- Math
- THC

To clarify, what I mean by this is "who is most likely to be a wolf regardless of pairings," not "who is most likely to be a lone wolf with their partner dead."

[therealmathguy]

Let me put it this way:
If you genuinely believe I'm a wolf, you're essentially saying that I've been chugging stupid juice all game and making plays that actively harm my chance of winning simply for the sake of subverting expectations.

(On mobile rn, should be back on computer within 30 minutes)

You say that but the game is still going and we don't have many credible leads. The wolves have done a good job of confusing us

"For the sake of subverting expectations." It's a role deception game, so yes

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Let me put it this way:
If you genuinely believe I'm a wolf, you're essentially saying that I've been chugging stupid juice all game and making plays that actively harm my chance of winning simply for the sake of subverting expectations.

(On mobile rn, should be back on computer within 30 minutes)

Alternatively, what you could be saying is that I'm the type of player to deliberately handicap my chances of winning so I can say that I won despite poor odds.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

You say that but the game is still going and we don't have many credible leads. The wolves have done a good job of confusing us

We have plenty of credible leads. Basically everyone is acting incredibly sketch right now. Sort through their behavior and try to make sense of things.

"For the sake of subverting expectations." It's a role deception game, so yes

Subverting expectations while actively handicapping my chances of winning. In other words, subverting expectations simply for the sake of subverting expectations, not providing any benefit.

And, again, like I've said before, to assume I'm a wolf would be to actively ignore all the things that don't make sense about the game if I were a wolf.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Here now. Hi everyone.

The Xiao bombshell is huge. I feel kind of foolish for this, but it didn't occur to me that the CO was likely dead until this phase. On the one hand I am very bothered by the fact that the wolves tracked down the CO N2, but that also makes me think that it wasn't BDS that made the kill-–it's not impossible, but that seems WAY on the nose for a wolf to be privately told the identity of a wolf and then to turn around and kill that person. But I also don't see how it could be a frame job, since I see an obvious way to have figured out that Xiao was the CO that early. I think a lucky seering N1 on the wolves' part probably makes the most sense.

PMs with N1P2. BDS, the contingency N1P2 mentioned was me.

Spoiler

Hey N1P2, I have an idea I want to pitch to you.
You didn't confirm this when I asked, but from what you said in the thread, it sounded like you've been talking to both alt accounts on the side. I have a suggestion to make: get the alts to both seer the same person tonight without making it obvious that you're doing so. The goal of this is less to get a trustworthy seering from Waluigi and more to see if there's anyone that the wolves might try to protect. If Luigi comes up with a different seering in the thread than Waluigi on the same player, then that's probably someone for us to go after during Day 2. If either alt (but especially Waluigi) asks who you asked the other alt to seer, make someone else up, go inactive, whatever–just don't let them know that they're seering the same person.
The redirection power could confuse this, but I think there's probably still enough players alive that the wolf team might not yet have figured out who the Chosen One is, so barring an educated guess from them, the redirection power probably won't land to confuse things, though that's not a guarantee by any means. By N3, there will be a lot fewer players and it will become much easier to solve the game.
I think for this plan to work, it would probably have to have another human aware of what happened, since you are probably going to die tonight. Me since I'm suggesting it, for one, and probably whoever's behind TWG Luigi.
I suppose one of the downsides to doing this is that you only get one seering result, and Waluigi might honestly just tell the truth about someone to try to buy back some favor with the human team, but I don't think that that's likely enough to be able to trust that seering.
Thoughts? Any obvious flaws that I'm missing? I don't see flaws as much as a very limited upside, it's not a silver bullet by any means, but I think it has greater than even odds of yielding some actionable intel.

Yup, I have plans in place and although i originally wanted to tell someone else (actually was considering you) what the plan is, i backed out because perhaps just having the sources i have now will be good enough. Who knows, perhaps I'll go in last second before the phase changes and spill all my thoughts to validate what will come in D2.

But it can go either way and I am interested to see how things play out
Basically, we will find the CO and a wolf by the start of D2. Townsfolk will just have to believe.

This all sounds good, but saying "townsfolk will just have to believe" is not at all a guarantee if our only confirmed human is dead. I would strongly recommend leaving everyone with a strong sense of your suspicions and plans before you are wolfed. Basically don't die without making sure your plans will be put into action!

I have to be conscious of my plan incase anyone out there tries to pull an even faster one on me! But yes i will speak before phase end

Thoughts on Toby or math? They have been targeted a lot this game

Targeted a lot? I'm not sure what you're referring to here, honestly. Toby in particular I feel like has slid under the radar for most of the game thus far, and while Math has definitely received some attention, it's been mostly in the context of "lynch an inactive" during D1, and people were treating him as interchangeable with Xiao for that reason. I stand by what I said in the topic, that if Specs wasn't a wolf they're probably my next choice for a pairing.

Targeted being a loose term for the center of conversations. Toby is always posting and math barely is lol

[close]

@TWG Luigi a seering could make all the difference here! Please show up!

More to follow

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Alternatively, what you could be saying is that I'm the type of player to deliberately handicap my chances of winning so I can say that I won despite poor odds.

Again, to rephrase it another way:
If I were a wolf and had just played things straight none of your arguments for why I'm suspicious would even be a thing (aside from "hm, well I just think he's too trustworthy"), and I would be in a much better position to launch suspicions against other players.