TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[Oricorio]

There's a chance Waluigi was just doing a reaction test to see who picked up on the fact that a blue seering is impossible, but I highly doubt that.

Interested to see what TWG Luigi has to say. They... certainly have a lot more credibility at this point

Interestingly, this was the excuse that Waluigi later went with.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Interestingly, this was the excuse that Waluigi later went with.

I'm pretty sure I also mentioned the possibility that THC could be Waluigi so, uh... looks like the wolves really ran with my ideas.

[Oricorio]

If I'm not the miller, it's incredibly likely that I was seered.
I feel conflicted. Personally, I'd say just wait for N1P2 to be wolfed which would clear up the whole thing (if N1P2 is the Sacrificial Lamb then he can't be revived of course). But then it brings up the question of who, if anyone, we should revive. If THC is the Sacrificial Lamb then he should revive whoever is wolfed N2 (if it's not N1P2), or N3 if N1P2 is wolfed. If N1P2 is indeed the Sacrificial Lamb then he should probably revive whoever is wolfed N3 (if anyone sees any potential problem with that, it'd be great to know ahead of time).

Phase ends in approximately 24 hours?

Insistence that he would be seered, another thing that has been discussed to death. While some would call this "LAMIST", I'm not exactly a big fan of that "tell"

[Oricorio]

Suspicion List Mk. 1

S U S Z O N E —
- Toby: His insistence on getting the Sacrificial Lamb to claim with only a few hours left N1 was a bit strange. If it was a genuine push, it feels like it should've happened sooner—and if the thought just didn't cross his mind until then, it would've helped to mention that as well. Overall it felt like it was more to gain human credits but suggesting an idea which had little chance of coming to fruition under the circumstances, rather than actually trying to help the human team. His pushback over my suggestion that I'm either the miller or was seered by the wolves (which would explain why I wasn't the N1 wolfing) feels like distraction rather than a genuine push. The only issue with Toby being a wolf is that I don't think the Waluigi slip-up would've happened with Toby on the wolf team. Unless his partner just completely jumped the gun of their own volition (which, again, I'm not sure would've happened on Toby's watch), a wolf team with Toby on it would've likely had their plan to reveal their seering results laid out ahead of time. At the very least, I don't think Toby would've approved his partner of having free reign on Waluigi without checking in with Toby first. And I don't think Toby would've made the slip up himself.

L E S S S U S Z O N E —
- XiaoMigros: Hasn't been posting much at all, even for Xiao standards. Paranoid speculation time: Xiao saw my comment last game about me developing a "Human Xiao Radar" and has been avoiding posting on the off-chance the opposite is also true. A player I could conceivably see being on a wolf team that made the Waluigi slip.
- TheZeldaPianist275: I think TZP is also in the zone of players who, if on the wolf team, could have conceivably led to the Waluigi slip—if not TZP himself, it's possible that TZP didn't pick on the fact that the human seer seers blue players as green and subsequently failed to inform his partner of this fact as well.
- threalmathguy: Hasn't posted enough to get a good lean on yet (but solely based on the content of those posts it's still fairly neutral). Based on the timing of his posts (one post early in the game, then no more until fairly recently) it's possible that either he made the Waluigi slip (made posts as Waluigi then deliberately dipped out to avoid suspicion), or wasn't around to prevent his partner from making the Waluigi slip.
- SpecsFlyer17: I originally had Specs in the category below (imo, his posts have been fairly consistent with his recent human behavior, especially last game), but given the recent posts by TZP and N1P2 I feel like he should be under more scrutiny. In his defense, the issues those two brought up could be mostly down to awkward wording, which feels like something Specs has caught suspicion for in past games as well. Also in his defense, Specs pointed out very early that he thought it was possible TWG Waluigi was the wolf due to proximity of Waluigi's first post to the wolfing, which I really don't feel would be something that would be in wolf Specs' interest to say out loud.

E V E N L E S S S U S Z O N E —
- Oricorio: Given that Oricorio has only played in Lantern Keeper Redux so far, I can't say for certain what wolf Oricorio vs. human Oricorio is like (especially in the context of a NSMTWG game), but at the very least, his behavior is markedly different from that game.

D E A D Z O N E —
- ThatHiddenCharacter: He is, indeed, dead.

Cool Kids Club —
- Nana1Popo2: Bar paranoid speculation, probably human.
- BlackDragonSlayer: Bar paranoid speculation, probably human.

Readslist. I find it interesting that some players *cough*math*cough* were supposedly suspicious of Specs for disagreeing with Toby's plan but had nary a word to say about BDS doing the same thing. Has me as the highest read aside from the un-CC'd SL, and I'm not sure I exactly like it because I don't know what playing differently than I did as an ITP says about my alignment. There's surprisingly little hedging in the "LESSSUSZONE" section, it feels like he is more considering who could've made the slip rather than who independently looks towny/wolfy. Surprisingly there's more hedging on the Toby read, which seems to counter his reason for reading the others. Overall, very weird post for a reads list.

[Oricorio]

Changing my vote to Xiao for now just in case I'm not online later.

Votes Xiao. Though that would make the Xiao kill weird if BDS was a wolf, as I don't think wolf!BDS would kill someone that they thought was an easy mislynch

[Oricorio]

I'm gonna be headed out (unlikely to return before phase end) so I'm changing my vote to threalmathguy (unfortunately the vote is still tied after my vote change). Xiao has posted a bit more since I made my vote and honestly I wanna hear more before I'm fully convinced to lynch Xiao. My main reason to want to lynch Xiao is I thought Xiao was deliberately being quiet, but if continues to change I might get less suspicious of Xiao.
you ok there bub

Votes math, followed by SpecsFlyer shortly afterwards — if there was a wolf rush, this is it. Wasn't enough to save Specs though

[Oricorio]

I was the one in contact with N1P2 all this time, but I guess the measures we took to ensure the release of info aren't necessary now, for... some reason.

wolves wyd

This is the part that makes w!BDS worlds interesting, to say the least. Although if the wolves knew everything, that would explain the Xiao kill as a wrench in the plan, and why N1P was left alive... but you'd think Waluigi would've come up with something better if the wolves had all this information. I guess it's a world worth considering but it doesn't seem particularly likely.

[Oricorio]

Eh. BDS's ISO does not look as impressive as I expected and if anything Toby might actually look better. Still, if wolves are really directing town's PRs, that seems like a situation that's self-resolving,but then again leaving the wolves in that position is also really dangerous.

Anyway, the players from least to most suspicious in my estimation:

Oricorio
N1P
THC
Toby
BDS
math
TZP

I still think a PoE of Toby/math/TZP, with pertinence given to the latter two, is mostly good but I'm not willing to 100% discount the possibility of BDS being a wolf. The Waluigi callout looks good, but it's not clearing by any means.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

I like this post from Toby; basically what I said, except put much more eloquently.

If THC isn't a wolf, then it makes perfect sense why Waluigi would claim to be THC regardless—Waluigi knows they messed up big time and absolutely would not want their real identity associated with the account. They probably knew that THC would be likely to be revived but simply wouldn't care in the interest in potentially causing chaos for an extra phase, which is the best they could have made of the bad scenario they found themselves in.

As has been discussed earlier, the two probabilities for what happened with the original Waluigi slip were:
- One wolf made the slip-up and the other was oblivious to their partner's use of Waluigi (i.e. the wolf that posted on Waluigi did so without the knowledge or approval of their partner).
- Both wolves were oblivious to the fact that the human seer seered blue players as green, meaning neither of them would have stopped the other from posting.

I recall people saying that the former was more likely (and to me, if that was the case my gut says a Toby/THC pair as the most likely candidate, as I think Toby would absolutely realize that blue players were seered green by the humans but THC might do a Leeroy Jenkins and go ahead without consulting Toby), but personally I think the latter is much more likely (I'd like to have faith that if one wolf was aware, they'd be cautious enough to make sure their partner understood and did not post on Waluigi without both of them signing off on any important posts). As I recall, I was the only player to acknowledge the fact that blue players are seered green by the human seer N1 (before the Waluigi slip even happened), so that means that most anybody could have fit into that scenario—though I think some people are more likely than others (waiting on THC's response to say more).

At work, so only enough time to respond to this. I would make sure I knew how the seer role works before making any posts like that. I may be a wildcard, but I also always triple-check things before I do anything. Both in-game and irl.

[Toby]

At work, so only enough time to respond to this. I would make sure I knew how the seer role works before making any posts like that. I may be a wildcard, but I also always triple-check things before I do anything. Both in-game and irl.

Triple checking before you do anything?
That didn't seem like the thought process of someone who, in a previous game, as a human false counter claimed the Seer role with a red seering on another human player! Lol

[The Deku Trombonist]

 This is a quick heads up that we'll be doing some maintenance soon. If anyone is in the middle of typing something, make sure you've got a copy (or finish up) so you don't lose your WIP.

[The Deku Trombonist]

Upgrades finished, post away.

[Toby]

So I'm trying to look within Oricorio/TZP/Math today as I want to trust at least today that N1P2 hasn't let BDS pull the wool over their eyes this whole time. And if there was any doubts on BDS then N1P2 would have spotted it

I'm also doing this on my phone as I'm away from home at moment so it's not the best formatted and putting in quotes is awkward so I've just spoke generally based on re reading

Oricorio

Oricorio you're putting a lot of emphasis on the POE being me/math/TZP - but that's your POE. And you would be included in mine as would you be in everyone else's.

What does stick out to me is how hard you were calling everything Waluigi was doing mistakes when I'm starting to question whether anything they did was a mistake at this point, it seems too obvious to claim they had a blue result when 1) human seer can't see blue and 2) BDS had also highlighted it.

I think if the blue steering was a blunder then likely one of the wolves must have been chaotic enough to run away with their own plan without discussing it with the other. I could see Oricorio being bitter and maybe trying to distance himself from Waluigi after making an obvious mistake.

The Waluigi claiming that they were THC - was this a mistake ? Or a temporary ruse/distraction? It was likely THC would be revived so their claim would be called bluff eventually - but who else would they counterclaim as? We largely all immediately saw Waluigi as suspicious so if they claimed to be a living player that could be a death sentence. And the counter claim could temporarily hold off the alliance. Although it was inevitable that THC would be revived and the alliance would form anyway. Oricorio critiquing this move could be a way of trying to discredit what the alliance wolves are doing and separate himself from that. Especially since I'm not seeing the Waluigi claiming to be THC as big of a mistake as has been said.

I also think Oricorio has intentionally tried to play more reserved this game to try slip by. There was a comment before that he's maybe playing more considerate for NSM TWG by being less aggressive but I don't see that at all. If it was a quieter play style because of consideration I'd expect him to also be considerate in his word choice and avoid mafia specific terms.

I also think the Waluigi messages have been trying to mimic other posting styles but I don't see a trace of Oricorio there. I think if someone was trying to mimic Oricorio they would try stick in a mafia term like 'scum' but there isn't. I think this is another way Waluigi and Oricorio are trying to distance from eachother.

Human points for Oricorio would be how deep he's dived in lately to everyone's posts, but I can't help to feel he's only doing it since he's now being looked at. He also seems to be leaning strong town on me which I think is interesting given I'm in the pool of consideration for today - I would think he would have liked to keep everyone as an option since he's also within pool of consideration

TZP

TZP has been largely quiet this game which is a little alarming. However I want to believe this isn't a play style choice as from the start of this game we have been looking closely at quieter players so to play quiet on purpose would be putting a target on his back.

Notable from TZP is going head on to lynch Specs, in which math guy followed suits. The obvious teaming against Specs there would separate them as a wolf pairing for me as it would be too obvious. I also think going guns ho early doors is a big risk for a wolf, and math guy backing him up on it leads me to believe it was a legitimate push.

TZP then thought it was odd how much traction the Specs lynch gained having being the one who started it. I do find this odd but I'm also not sure why he would question his own lynch push as a wolf. If he'd just falsely accused his irl friend and successfully lynched him I'm not sure if he'd want to draw further attention to it, or to the fact he wasn't all that confident in it.

TZP has also been PMing N1P2 on the side and been open about it. I'm not sure if this could be a way of trying to infiltrate the alliance and get information out ? If it was I'm not sure if he'd be so open about it in topic

N1P2 also hasn't seemed to wolf read TZP yet so I'm going to hold off on going in that direction

math guy

Math guy as well has been very quiet which has been disappointing given I swayed Specs over him, thinking his activity may pick up and we'd have more to read.

I'm looking back at Lantern Holders and comparing his game here to that. Notably in Lantern Holders he started the game offering good insights and then activity dwindled as the game went on and he may start to be subjected. There's been a somewhat similar approach this game with him giving some observations, opinion on the plan I setup, offering a suspicion list day 1,  but there haven't been much posts since.

Notably today from him he's being reading me strongly human fast that I can't help but shake as being odd?? Wolves need to remember to have a balance of reading players both wolves and human as to not look sus for reading everyone as wolves, so I'm not sure if he's just grabbed at an opportunity to read me as human ?? I'm not sure it feels unnatural how strong he was so sudden.

I also think math guy is likely to have not noticed the human seers players blue just from being newish to TWG so maybe not picking up on all the details. TZP has also given him big credit on being smart so it's likely within his remit to forge some PMs.

I think for pairing mathguy/Specs doesn't make sense given math guys follow up vote to Specs. If I wanted to cut my losses on Specs being a wolf I would vote math. But because I think Spec's slips were wolf slips I'd like to remain confident that we should be looking for Spec' partner.

_______

For a suspicion list in order I'd go with

Wolf
Oricario
Math
TZP
BDS
THC
N1P2
Toby
Human

With swaying between math or Oricorio for the top spot

That's how I'm feeling at the moment not wanting to consider BDS or THC too hard at the moment

I'm going to place my vote on Oricorio for now but I couldn't be swayed either way

[Toby]

I just remembered Oricorio literally has a green steering !

I mean could still be master wolf or even redirection so it's possible that Oricorio isn't even green and or the seer got redirected to a green player

It's annoying there aren't any cardflips so we knew if Specs was red or green at least to try match up the pair

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Hello Deku! Good to see you.

2. TheZeldaPianist275: Exists I guess

:C

This is like TZP's only post for a significant portion if the game? It's meh

>:C

Oricorio, it's all good and fine to say that if you were intentionally trying to KO Waluigi's credibility you would have done it yourself, but that doesn't seem to me to be materially better (from wolf!Oricorio's perspective) than allowing another player to attract attention by noticing it and then melting into the crowdshaming, and it also totally could have been a simple mistake. I think that's more likely and is a potential explanation for your stridency in speaking out against it.

As far as who's on deck next if you are lynched, I'd say Toby, then Math. But I don't think you can get away with accusing me of having buyer's remorse against Specs. That is an extremely selective reading of my posts--I still think there's a good chance he's a wolf, your avoidance of him on D1 is one of the things that made me consider you as an option in the first place, and while I flirted with the idea of a Toby/Math pairing, the results of N2 make me think that's not a live possibility any more (though I think either one could possibly be a wolf). If I vote you now there's only one more to insta I believe, so I'll hold off, but I fail to see a better option right now.

Also Oricorio can you remind me what ISO and PoE and lamist refer to?

Also also damn. This forum layout is going to take a long time to get used to. I got the "new replies, review your post" notification but couldn't see the replies without opening a new tab.