TWG CXIX: Luigi Wins by Doing Absolutely Everything

[Oricorio]

The main reason why I don't believe Specs is a wolf is because they don't fit comfortably with any of my PoE of math/TZP/Toby. If we're dealing with a deepwolf like BDS, though, they may be worth considering.

I just hope one of those three is the seer to make this easier on us

[Oricorio]

I should probably go over Toby at some point. For now, I'll start with THC since they have considerably less posts. Also, a multiquote feature would be nice (copypasting everything is too annoying on mobile to be worth the effort).

Just checking in to say I'm aware I've been revived and will give more insight once I'm home from work.
That is absolutely something I would do. And have done in a previous game, sort of. Just without the revive part. Also, I can confirm that I never claimed to be either TWG account to N1P2. I haven't even DMed anyone this game, yet.

Questioning another player's reason for townreading you is often considered towny behavior, and this tell has been reliable for me in the past.

[Oricorio]

Suspicious
therealmathguy: Pretty much for the reasons I previously stated. It also feels like they've been very absent and easily jumping on bandwagons. The posts I just reread seemed to exclusively be either agreeing with someone else or restating something already said.

Neutral/Unsure
Toby: I have trouble reading Toby's posts since they always seem all over the place to me. Maybe that's why I have trouble trusting him. I haven't seen anything explicitly wolfy, though.
Oricorio: Someone mentioned that they were being more reserved this because they saw it as a little suspicious. Personally, I think it's because we mentioned last game that their aggressiveness was a little much for NSM TWG and I think they're just trying to be considerate and dial it back a bit. The only thing that felt off to me was their reaction to the claimed Oricorio seering. They they said "Believable, so I guess I'm not the Miller." just doesn't sit right with me. It feels a little forced.
TheZeldaPianist275: Has definitely been asking a lot of questions this game. I find it odd that he asked N1P2 why Xiao was killed. He did try and throw some shade on Toby for Toby's vote on D1, but the argument seemed pretty valid from the standpoint of someone who had only skimmed the posts and didn't read everything. I could understand missing Toby having already shown a possible want to vote for Specs.

Probably Human
BlackDragonSlayer: First off, BDS has just been playing in a way that seems very helpful for town. He's been one of the most active players, as well as being the one to call out TWG Waluigi on the blue result. I would like to point out that both Toby and Oricorio made posts before BDS called it out without saying/noticing it themselves. That's what really pushes him to human for me, since both Toby and Oricorio also have the other town-aligned read I have for BDS. None of them would have allowed TWG Waluigi to continue making mistakes after the first one. All three had been online very shortly after that, so I highly doubt they'd let their partner try to claim TWG Waluigi was me.

Human
Nana1Popo2: I mean... We all know this at this point.

That's all my thoughts as of right now.

Has quite a wide PoE (granted, it aligns with mine aside from myself obviously). Most of the reads are hedgy, though seems to mindmeld with my thoughts on math (although that was before math made his more bold post).

[Oricorio]

Yeah, reading over THC's posts they have the most naturally towny posts of anyone here. I think we can disregard any convoluted scenarios of wolves shooting themselves for now.

[Oricorio]

Since Toby has way more posts than math, TZP, or THC I'll probably only go over the highlights.

Something we could consider is the sacrificial lamb claiming and then asking the chosen one to claim to them. The sacrificial lamb could then tell us if either twg Luigi or twg waluigi are the human seer without the risk of revealing the chosen one.

Because the sacraficial lamb can still use their power even when dead Im not seeing much of a down side to this. It just means they're guaranteed to be wolfed next but someone has to be wolfed, and in exchange we have an untouchable human seer for the rest of the game.

His plan for D1. The problem with outing the SL that early is that they essentially are removed from the PoE, so it's very helpful to have them around later in the game. Still, given the wolves didn't kill N1P I'm not sure what they're doing anymore.

[Oricorio]

And lynching neither the chosen one or the sacraficial lamb is harmful as both their powers can be used while dead

What does this even mean?

[Oricorio]

What do you mean? It only asks the sacraficial lamb to claim which would lead to us finding the chosen one. If there is a chosen one counter claim then we find a wolf in exchange for our seer.

If the sacraficial lamb is counter claimed we lose a confirmed human in exchange for a wolf

If both are counter claimed we literally win the game because we are able to lynch 2 wolves in 4 lynches

It seems this is dependent on CCs from the wolves in order to be fruitful, something that clearly did not happen in the case of the SL and wolves seemed to chicken out in terms of CCing the seer

[Oricorio]

Either waluigi is meme ing or that's THC's Death post waaa lol

Seems to push the idea that THC is Waluigi pretty early on. If the wolves killed THC so they could pretend Waluigi was THC, then this could be evidence of collusion (and them trying to frame THC), but it could easily be a coincidence

[Oricorio]

I think everyone has posted since n1p2 claimed sacrificial lamb so unless THC was the lamb which I doubt then we have our lamb.

I suggest everyone pm n1p2 if their role just to help them find the Chosen One and they can see if anyone is going to counter claim

Has been proactive on this end, even if it was pretty likely that someone would come up with this idea eventually

[Oricorio]

Thinking along the lines of players who have been quiet, TZP also hasn't posted much this game. Xiao actually has more posts. But doing a comparison TZP's posts are more content filled. TZP's tone this game also seems similar to his previous game where he was human, but still a change in tone from his games before that which is probably just non alignment indicative.

I'll be interested to see what Xiaos suspicion list looks like and if we would be likely to get more content from him in the game

Interestingly calls out TZP as also being quiet, something I noticed when I went through their ISO. Seems to prefer to flip Xiao though

[Oricorio]

Couple hours left in phase

I'm leaning Xiao for lack of activity, and he said he'd provide a suspicion list but hasn't - although poet did this last game and was human so it might actually be a human tell rather than wolf

Or honestly maybe Specs as I've found just some of his posts to be slightly off, and he's been caught out on 2 mistakes against TZP and Math - has he been trying to grasp at straws to get ammunition against his irl friends who can read him well? I would like to hear more from TZP and math against Specs as they know him best but I think it's especially interesting they both chose to vote their irl friend day 1 and I don't think you'd do that unless you really thought they were a wolf. I don't see a wolf leading a lynch against their irl friend day 1 - seems nasty lol !

I did think I would have ended this phase voting math purely based on activity, but although he hasn't posted a lot it's not been as low as activity as previous games. I'm feeling the activity this game is actually okay, with Xiao maybe being the only exception due to his posts not having much content to them as of now.

TZP has also had low activity but his posts have been content heavy which does give us something to read. And I think it's very brave to start the first accusation of the game going against your irl friend, which is majorly risky that I don't think I see a wolf doing

Still leaning Xiao. Specs suspicion has been building, but it seems to be based more on the reads of Specs's "IRL friends". Not sure why he's giving math a pass here, his ISO was borderline empty at that point

[Oricorio]

My gut is leaning town on math and I was leaning between specs and Xiao and given the vote count I'll put it on Specs

I think his 2 mistakes was a slip where he was trying to get further ammunition to make cases against math and TZP and was hoping to not be called out on it. I think his interaction with Waluigi was a bit odd and he had resistance to my plan which was going to help us confirm the human seer.

Also according to TZP he was showing a different tone to my plan in the topic compared to PM's which I find strange. As if he was afraid to show his true opinion in topic or trying to sway people behind the scenes.

Finally votes Specs. I mean, I guess it would be weird for a wolf to vote there when there were already (if my count is correct) three votes on that wagon, and it's not like bussing cred could be a thing with no flips.

[Oricorio]

I think I've gone in deep enough with Toby. I think he's most likely town, even if there are a few avenues of tinfoil I could pursue, and thus the least suspicious of my PoE. Last will be going through BDS (I don't need to go through N1P, being the un-CC'd SL is good enough for me)

[Oricorio]

hey wait a minute the aloof seer seers blue players as green

I was also going to look through only the "highlights" as with Toby, but surprisingly none of BDS's posts stood out to me 'til this obvious one. I mean, he disagreed with Toby's plan, which I guess is something. Nevertheless, this post has already been discussed to death.

[Oricorio]

ninja'd

I tend to agree. Maaaaaybe also TZP, but I feel like TZP is more likely to have picked up on the fact that the human seer seers blue targets as green.

Now that N1P is obvious town, has BDS pursued the TZP suspicion?