TWG CXVIII: Noughts and Crosses Postgame

[Oricorio]

Congrats wolves!

Role reveal:
1. A# Minor: Wolf
2. XiaoMigros: Human
3. TheZeldaPianist275:  Human
4. ThatHiddenCharacter: Innocent Child
5. SpecsFlyer17:  Human
6. BlackDragonSlayer:  Human
7. The Musical Poet:  Human
8. threalmathguy: Wolf
9. Toby:  Human

Final board:

TheZeldaPianist275	X	A# Minor
O	X	X
X	O	O

Night actions:
N1: A# Minor wolfs XiaoMigros
N2: A# Minor wolfs ThatHiddenCharacter
N3: A# Minor wolfs Toby

[A# Minor]

WOOOOOO I WINNNNN

[Oricorio]

Recap:
Day 1: Most of the day consists of debate of whether it's optimal to lynch the center or a corner. In wolfchat, threalmathguy discusses whether it would be best to try to defend themselves or just go down but try to get towncred, but ultimately neither wolf is super active and threalmathguy goes down.
Night 1: A# Minor chooses to wolf The Musical Poet, but later decides to switch to XiaoMigros. Town mostly discusses optimal tictactoe strategy.
Day 2: Many townies are confused as to why XiaoMigros was wolfed over IC ThatHiddenCharacter, and many people start looking at A# Minor and The Musical Poet. However, TheZeldaPianist275 sends this message to ThatHiddenCharacter:

I think there's a good chance I am going to be set up this day phase. I suggested myself and Poet as viable lynch candidates before we decided to go for Math D0, but lynching Xiao took any incentive for me to put myself forward as a lynch candidate away, since my death would no longer contribute to a human TTT victory.

I think a wolf narrative could be "TZP, you put yourself up as a lynch candidate when it was near certain that Math was going to be lynched, but said you could be lynched tomorrow.....then Xiao got conveniently wolfed, removing the incentive for you to be lynched. You ingratiated yourself by offering yourself to be killed without any actual risk."

You don't have to trust me! But please keep an eye out for anyone who says something that looks like this.

Ultimately, Toby took the bait, which caused a rift in town. Between that and town wanting a lynch that would leave their options open, it came down to a tie between Toby and SpecsFlyer17, who was primarily pushed by BlackDragonSlayer and ended up being the lynch after a KitB, condemning the IC to being the next wolfkill.
Night 2: This phase is probably more interesting for what happened behind the scenes. As A# Minor didn't show up at all the last phase, and if wolves didn't wolf ThatHiddenCharacter it would lead to an automatic loss, I had to contact around twenty people to find a sub so that they could submit the kill in case A# Minor didn't show up. Ultimately, DS was ready to sub in and even signed an account here, but A# Minor showed up anyway.
Day 3: BDS comes close to finding the scent. A# Minor nearly wolfslips by falsely assuming their vote is a hammer, and TZP calls her out on it. Ultimately, though, they both go back to voting BDS, continuing the game.
Night 3: Toby falsely claims to be the last wolf as a reaction test (for the record, if Toby was truly the last wolf the game would have been called at that point). A# Minor admits they know it's fake, TMP is mostly confused, and TZP seems to believe it. Despite calling out A# Minor's strange vote, Toby seems to lean to a TMP vote before his inevitable wolfing.
Day 4: TZP goes back and forth between TMP and A# Minor, but ultimately votes TMP in the end, allowing A# Minor to hammer and end the game.

Player analysis:

A# Minor: Good job! It's impressive that you were able to win despite the wolves having a bad rand with the board, with math in the center and you being in the corner is not ideal either. However, there were a couple times when things nearly fell apart. Number one, being completely silent D2 was bad and nearly led to a major issue with game integrity, as I mentioned earlier. There were still people who felt you couldn't be the wolf because you weren't active enough, which is not the ideal situation, plus you being inactive after the math lynch made you look like their most likely partner. Secondly, there were a couple times when you were a bit flippant about your vote, especially in D3, so it may be helpful to try to build more of a progression. Still, you pulled it off in the end, so I can't complain too much.
XiaoMigros: You had the unlucky position of being the first one nightkilled, so there's not too much to say here. I suppose the one thing to say is that you probably could've posted more of your reads on N1 so town would have something to go off of when you were killed, and looking at least a little bit into whether or not math was a wolf could help town proceed in the next phase.
TheZeldaPianist275: You should learn how to better push people. You did have some good thoughts in the later phases, but it doesn't matter if you're going to drop them. Granted, you were stuck with two of the less active people at LyLo, but you really could have pushed both of them harder. Even after A# and TMP answer your questions, you should push them on their answer to see if it's satisfactory. You were stuck in a difficult position at F3, but LyLo is usually a time where you have to reevaluate the assumptions that got you to that point in the game. It's good to keep the thoughts of dead town like Toby in mind, but that's not everything.
ThatHiddenCharacter: As you were confirmed town, I'm a little disappointed you weren't more bold and vocal. In particular, I'm surprised you didn't leave a "legacy post" going over all your reads and how you wanted town to proceed after it was clear your death was inevitable. I understand why this isn't common in flipless games, but as you were confirmed town there was no reason not to do this. And this goes to both you and TZP, but you probably should've been more charitable to Toby on D2; if it was wolves' plan to frame TZP for the Xiao kill, then they'd be more likely to wait for town to make that mistake than actually push that reasoning themselves, especially as TZP was able to figure it themselves.
SpecsFlyer17: I think part of your problem this game is that you were focused too much on tictactoe theory. It's the same problem with mechanical discussion: people assume that it's what wolves will do when they can't contribute reads to the game. If you were more willing to post reads on people, then they would be less likely to see all the mechanical talk as a smokescreen. Still, I understand that a KitB sucks, and it must have been even more frustrating to learn that both wagons were pure!
BlackDragonSlayer: You did come close to solving the game, and in the end it was mainly a vote by the wolf, as well as the fact that you couldn't be there EoD that did you in. I think you did have a problem with being too passive against A# Minor; while you were willing to voice suspicions I don't think you've ever directly confronted her and that allowed her to avoid being the focus of discussion. To avoid being mislynched, you need to establish a viable counterwagon, and I don't think you really did that too well on D3.
The Musical Poet: Interestingly, your inactivity actually benefited town on D1 at least, as wolves had no reason to kill you and it forced A# Minor to go for a riskier Xiao kill rather than killing you to protect their position. Unfortunately, that led to an ironic situation where it would be better for town if you did worse, as you getting mislynched D2 or D3 would have ended the game. Ultimately, you not paying attention was probably more harmful to town in the long run, as your vote on SpecsFlyer17 came out of nowhere and was probably one of the wolfiest things in your ISO. At LyLo, you also need to establish why you're townier than TZP or A# Minor, which is something you didn't do and ultimately led to your downfall. The burden you bear for town's activity rises the more townies that die, so it's important to step up in the later phases of the game.
threalmathguy: I understand that you randed into a rough position, and it's never fun to basically be guaranteed to die D1. Still, I think you should have done more D1. If this game had cardflips turned on, then not spewing when you're guaranteed to die is probably the right decision, but with cardflips off, it would have made A# Minor's life much easier if people had read you as town, as it became obvious that if you were a wolf A# Minor was likely to be your partner. Also, I'm not sure why you were voting TMP when that lynch would put your team in the exact same position; if it was meant to throw town off the scent, town didn't get the memo.
Toby: Firstly, you can join the chorus of people who should've pressured A# Minor more. Now, part of the reason why you were being suspected D2 was because of TZP's message to THC, which could be hard to anticipate, but it wouldn't have hurt to reach out to THC who is confirmed town. This is an OC game, I'm surprised that TZP is the only person who privately reached out to THC in this manner. Still, respect for managing to survive D3 despite being the CW in the previous phase. So you did a reaction test, and the thing is I've seen these kinds of reaction tests fail as much as they succeed. Using it to help gather data isn't a bad idea, but it probably shouldn't be the sole reason behind who is wolfiest. Also, you probably could've left a more concrete legacy post, though you were better about this than THC was.

Wolf MVP: A# Minor
Town MVP: BlackDragonSlayer
Honorable mentions: TheZeldaPianist275, Toby

[therealmathguy]

A# the GOAT

The board positions put us in a very tough spot, I can't believe we got it

Good job A#, that's basically a solo victory

[SpecsFlyer17]

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I am irate about that

[SpecsFlyer17]

^^ That's how I feel.

I cannot believe Math was lynched center square D0 and won. I cannot believe it.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Yeah pretty much anything I can say is gonna be insane cope because in fairness to the wolves they made a generational comeback after a swingy start

I'm just frustrated because I don't feel like I could have done anything else that last day phase. It felt like a coin flip

[The Musical Poet]

sorry TZP, I was not able to be online at that time. School sucks :/

[SpecsFlyer17]

Well done A#, that's an insane comeback.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I was right.

There was a good reason I thought A# was more likely to be Mathguy's partner. It's unfortunate that people got caught up with lynching me for what seemed like very circumstantial reasons.

[A# Minor]

lol thanks, I have literally no idea how I wasn't lynched like D2 XD


I was actually gonna wolf poet instead of xiao on n1, but I thought that would make you guys lynch me since I'm the opposite corner D:

It's unfortunate that people got caught up with lynching me for what seemed like very circumstantial reasons.

yeah, I decided to lynch you because I kinda wanted poet to stick around for the last phase — XD

[SpecsFlyer17]

I was actually gonna wolf poet instead of xiao on n1, but I thought that would make you guys lynch me since I'm the opposite corner D:

I actually think it would've been a good move to lynch Poet N1. The Xiao wolf put some pressure on TZP, but never enough to get him lynched; in fact, it's what got him to the end. It's the same situation, and I think it probably would've helped you out.

[The Musical Poet]

lol thanks, I have literally no idea how I wasn't lynched like D2 XD


I was actually gonna wolf poet instead of xiao on n1, but I thought that would make you guys lynch me since I'm the opposite corner D:

yeah, I decided to lynch you because I kinda wanted poet to stick around for the last phase — XD

thief

you stole my luck >:>

also why did you even want me

[Oricorio]

Alright, so the game recap and player analyses are finished! So what do you think of the game? Was the hosting and balance fair, and would you play another game hosted by me in the future?