TWG CXVIII: Noughts and Crosses

[Toby]

I mean yeah but is that a wolf trait or someone that just doesn't know what to do

And being open about not really knowing what to do and following others leads isn't really something a wolf that's trying to be careful and not draw suspicion does

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I would pair Poet with BDS and I'm not sure if BDS nudged her to try distance herself from him by casting suspicious lean towards me (which lynching me would secure BDS' death)

I'd like to point out that I was gunning for a Poet lynch yesterday and have already stated my most likely picks for a lynch today are either Poet or TZP.

It's good to question things though, to avoid tunneling.

toby (potentially) bussing poet is confusing me a bit due to the nature of the game but I'm still not convinced that they're not wolves

In this case, Toby would be bussing Poet because he knows I'm already inclined to go for Poet and is hoping that I would indeed follow through and vote TZP in the final 3. Whereas today he might not be 100% sure if he can get a lynch on anybody else.

I do think Poet/Toby is a lot less likely though.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I'm questioning everything today

This is where I'm at right now--whichever of you is on the wolf team has played very well, I don't feel confident in anyone.

Right now I am leaning toward a BDS vote because I haven't felt like his reasoning has followed an especially genuine pattern--his posts are solvey but don't seem to flow naturally from one conjecture to another

[A# Minor]

what is "solve-y"

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Solve-y in the sense of trying to figure out what role belongs to who

[BlackDragonSlayer]

This is where I'm at right now--whichever of you is on the wolf team has played very well, I don't feel confident in anyone.

Right now I am leaning toward a BDS vote because I haven't felt like his reasoning has followed an especially genuine pattern--his posts are solvey but don't seem to flow naturally from one conjecture to another

What do you mean by that? What isn't natural about it?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I will place my vote in the morning. Will likely vote for Poet. Everyone else should also state their most likely vote. I don't think there's too much risk of a wolf rush insta (4 votes to insta?), but it never hurts to be a little more cautious.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I have not slept much at all on account of my current sickness. I'm uncertain if I'll be able to make it to the end of the phase, as I may be sleeping during that time.

As of such,
The Musical Poet

I still think TZP/Specs is the most likely wolf pairing, but the risk-averse, paranoid, wannabe detective in me wants to hedge against the possibility of A#/Math or a Poet pairing as well before going all-in on that conclusion.

[Toby]

I don't think I'll be convinced for a poet lynch I'm just seeing erratic human

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Toby who are your suspicions?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

GTH the wolf pair is either TZP/Specs, A#/Math, or Toby/Poet. To hedge against all these possible options, my gut says to go for a Poet lynch today, ensuring A# is wolfed (like I wanted to do yesterday).
[/quote]
BDS there's a distinct possibility the game is in lylo, I don't think we can play for hedged bets anymore. I think everyone needs to decide who their most significant suspicion is

I'm curious also why you think that Poet is a likely partner for Toby compared to almost everyone else. It seems to me there are plenty of options there

I think my suspicion list runs
1. BDS
2. A# (close second)
3. Toby
4. Poet

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Toby I was reading wolf but the "you should just lynch me" seemed genuine, as did his reasoning for the turnaround of the last few minutes with the assist from BDS and Poet. Even if Toby were a wolf, he couldn't be a partner with both of them, so I have to conclude that that was an organic rush, not a wolf-coordinated one.

A# I stand by the fact that I think she's holding back more than is customary for her, even ignoring the AFK stretches.

My BDS suspicions are a gut read based off the pattern of his posts that I'm struggling to articulate right now. I will come back later and try to be a bit more concrete about what I feel like I'm seeing with examples

[A# Minor]

I'd probably be okay with a TZP or toby lynch, I've just went through poet's posts and I don't see anything too alarming


I also don't think zbds is suspicious right now

[A# Minor]

ack


BDS, not "zbds"

[A# Minor]

hold up, that came out wrong

I've just went through poet's posts and I don't see anything too alarming

what I mean to say is "there's nothing that's suspicious in her posts itself, but I was only suspicious of her because of her general behavior/that possible wolf rush last phase, so I guess we could leave her for now? not really a top priority in my mind ig, just a possible pair with someone else"