TWG CXVIII: Noughts and Crosses

[BlackDragonSlayer]

BDS I am totally in agreement that we should be hunting wolves via lynch. What I'm pointing out (and what I think Specs is as well) is that because of this game's gimmick, it's important to consider everyone who dies. If we decide that A# is our best bet at hitting a wolf, it's a guarantee that Poet, Toby, and you will go next.

To your point, it's still important to actively try to hit a wolf with the lynch and not just rely on the blocks to take them out for us—if A# is a wolf and her partner is still alive but not in the A#/BDS block, lynching you rather than her this day phase would lose the game for us, even though the exact same people are killed by it, because the order in which people go down matters.

tl;dr: hunt wolves to the best of your ability but don't lose sight of the domino chain that occurs when you do so

All I'm saying is there are 3 options out there that guarantee the deaths through the third lynch, which means if Math was a human and the remaining two lynches are humans, the game ends. It would be very convenient for the wolves to push for an option where the human deaths are guaranteed.

Example, if we do lynch A#, and A#, Poet, and Toby are humans, that's game.

BDS, I do agree that A# has looked suspicious, and yes I don't want to lose sight of lynching people who are suspicious. I'm just trying to keep sight of the implications and chain reaction if we do lynch A# (or anyone for that matter).

Finally, I'm frankly a little concerned by the negative reactions to my dissection and analysis of the game. I didn't do it "trying to score human points", but rather to help the town make an informed decision. Yet, I've received a lot of negative reaction from BDS and Toby specifically. Idk, maybe chalk it up to still being relatively new to TWG, but I'm surprised that something that helpful would automatically been seen as suspicious just because I didn't directly post opinions associated with it.

The combination of these posts back-to-back feels kinda suspicious

Re: TZP, that's exactly what I have been taking into account, and what I feel Specs has not.

Re: Specs, especially the last paragraph, that feels like a bit of an overreaction to what people have pointed out. It's not because of your analysis that I'm suspicious of you, but rather, factoring in the context surrounding it.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Recently I have slight sus towards BDS for indicating we should consider options that may include losing our confirmed human. I think we should protect our confirmed human if we can, and I definitely think we can. Coupled this with the fact I think I'm the only person he is reading as human this game, and I happen to be opposite him on the grid - which would mean if I die, he dies... I'm not liking how that's looking

Quite frankly, I'm not sure I want to place my faith in a hypothetical situation where THC is in the final 3, especially so after his most recent analysis post. His reasoning is basically the exact opposite of mine, and given my suspicion of Specs, I'm strongly get the feeling THC wouldn't vote for Specs in a final 3.

Also, I was human leaning Xiao, but Xiao died. Not sure what you want me to do about that when everyone else is acting various degrees of sketchy. If I was trying to keep myself alive via TTT board, why would I not have wolfed you (or THC, for that matter) and avoided the whole dilemma entirely?

Poet, I'm on the fence about. I'm glad her analysis has started picking up, but at the same time it feels a bit sudden. Of all the players I suspect, she feels the most human, but given that she's across from A# (if A# is the lone wolf she won't be wolfed and will guarantee a human victory, and if A# is one of two wolves it puts the wolves in a tricky spot) and lynching Poet also leads to Specs being lynched, that's the route I feel most comfortable going down.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Something else I just realized is that there is no lynching block that Specs is in that THC is not also in. If Specs is a wolf, Xiao could have been wolfed in part for this reason—to set the board up so that he can't be lynched without also depriving the humans of their confirmed human. I think that's an ideal way for the wolves to leverage the confirmed human rather than just taking  him out first chance they get.

That could be a good reason specifically why THC wasn't wolfed, I agree. If THC was already dead, Specs' lynch would be a potentially more appealing option to the humans.

I do think it would have been smart for the wolves to wolf a player that gave them an advantage

The Xiao wolfing gives both TZP and Specs an advantage so there's likely a wolf within them

That's partly the reason why I suspect a possible Specs/TZP pairing, and also because their posts have seemed weirdly in sync this phase in particular.

Keeping my vote for the time being. Phase ends in about an hour and a half.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Can we get a vote count Oricorio?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Something else I just realized is that there is no lynching block that Specs is in that THC is not also in. If Specs is a wolf, Xiao could have been wolfed in part for this reason—to set the board up so that he can't be lynched without also depriving the humans of their confirmed human. I think that's an ideal way for the wolves to leverage the confirmed human rather than just taking  him out first chance they get.

That's a good point. I can see it in a few ways. First, yeah, it could have been just a simple way to defend me if I'm a wolf. Not the case though. Second, it could have been a way to frame me; the Xiao move N1 does put me in the spot of "defending the IC". Lastly (and this can coexist with the second point), a successful push to lynch me also takes out the IC, since THC and I are opposite on the board. BDS has been the one most suspicious of me; it could be a play to get the IC out. The A# option takes out me and the IC.

[SpecsFlyer17]

That could be a good reason specifically why THC wasn't wolfed, I agree. If THC was already dead, Specs' lynch would be a potentially more appealing option to the humans.
That's partly the reason why I suspect a possible Specs/TZP pairing, and also because their posts have seemed weirdly in sync this phase in particular.

Or, playing an edge square on N1 was a losing play. If Math was a wolf, THC wasn't an option. If THC was killed N1 and one wolf died up though the 3rd lynching, the wolves lose via TTT

[Oricorio]

Can we get a vote count Oricorio?

The Musical Poet:  1 (BlackDragonSlayer)
A# Minor: 1 (TheZeldaPianist275)
Toby: 2 (SpecsFlyer17, ThatHiddenCharacter)

If I missed anything let me know

[BlackDragonSlayer]

That's a good point. I can see it in a few ways. First, yeah, it could have been just a simple way to defend me if I'm a wolf. Not the case though. Second, it could have been a way to frame me; the Xiao move N1 does put me in the spot of "defending the IC". Lastly (and this can coexist with the second point), a successful push to lynch me also takes out the IC, since THC and I are opposite on the board. BDS has been the one most suspicious of me; it could be a play to get the IC out. The A# option takes out me and the IC.

As I said before, you're putting too much stock in the IC—and in general, it seems as if you're getting too attached to points that you shouldn't be if you were human. If the IC needs to die for us to actually lynch wolves, that's the preferable option for me.

If we haven't lynched at least one wolf, then next day phase is the last lynch. Lynching Poet today ensures A# is wolfed (unless she's the lone wolf or the wolf pair hesitate wolfing one of their own, which guarantees human TTT victory), which gets rid of one of my biggest suspicions, then we lynch Specs the next day which gets rid of another one of my biggest suspicions.

From my perspective, that guarantees we make it to a final 3 unless the wolf pair is TZP/Toby, which I think is the least likely possibility of all the wolf pairings for reasons I've described before: Toby's play seems perfectly in line with his human play from the past few games, and TZP's and Toby's interests don't exactly seems to be aligning, at least up until now.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Or, playing an edge square on N1 was a losing play. If Math was a wolf, THC wasn't an option. If THC was killed N1 and one wolf died up though the 3rd lynching, the wolves lose via TTT

As I mentioned before:

If Math was a wolf, I think Specs, A#, or Poet are his most likely partners.

If Math was not a wolf, I think the most likely pairings (not in any particular order), are A#/Poet, A#/Specs, and Specs/TZP.

You would be a good partner for Math because you advocated the corner strat over his square, but switched positions toward the end when it was clear people were leaning away from it.

I could entirely see you wolfing Xiao after your push for the corner strat failed because you were put in a disadvantageous position (regardless of whether or not Math was a wolf) and forced to potentially make a choice that could reveal a lot of information you wouldn't want the humans to have. I could also see you deliberately avoiding wolfing THC for one or both of the same reasons, as well as to potentially protect yourself.

A# would make a good partner for Math because it would explain her sudden disappearance. If your wolf partner was lynched D1 and you were subsequently put in a position where you were a likely lynch candidate over the next day phases, I can understand sort of "giving up."

If A# is part of a wolf pair, I could see her going along with a Xiao wolfing, likely for the same reasons Specs would wolf Xiao. I think an A#/Poet pair would conceivably wolf Xiao without realizing there was a good chance it could put a spotlight on the two of them. Them being across the diagonal from each other isn't a great position to be in, so it's possible their hand was forced over taking what they saw as the least worst option.

Poet is sort of an open-ended in regards to partners, but I think Math and A# are the most likely picks.

I don't think TZP would be a partner to Math, but he makes sense as a possible partner to Specs because, as I mentioned prior, it feels like your posts have really been playing off of each other this phase while not expressing exactly the same thing. As was mentioned early in the phase, wolfing Xiao could be a play to protect TZP (Specs would be aware of the possible outcomes already and hope the humans wouldn't want to risk an option that gave the wolves more control).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

If there is one wolf left alive, lynching Toby is an acceptable option, but isn't the best, as it makes the next day phase so much trickier to figure out rather than just dealing with the most suspicious players earlier. High chance of mislynching D3.

If there are two wolves left, lynching Toby is one of the worst option (especially after Toby said he'd be ok with his own lynch and certainly didn't do anything to fight it) because it leaves all of TZP, A#, Specs, and Poet alive into D3. Extremely high chance of mislynching.

I don't really want to bank on the chance that Math was a wolf.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm also hesitant to lynch A# today because that forces us to lynch Toby the next day—if A# isn't a wolf, that means wolves are most likely Specs/TZP. Both the Toby lynch and A# lynch heavily benefit that wolf pairing, especially since they know THC is already likely to vote in their favor the next day phase after a Toby lynch.

[The Musical Poet]

So would Specs be the best option?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

So would Specs be the best option?

Well, it would be an option. Not necessarily the worst option, but preferably to lynching Toby imo. If Specs isn't a wolf and A# is, then that option could also cause issues.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

We've got around 15 minutes left. Poet, if you're planning to vote Specs, I would be interested in getting on board—as I imagine you are unlikely to want to lynch yourself.

[Toby]

I mean I haven't liked any of THC's takes either this game and if leaving him alive only secures TZP/Spec's fate in staying alive then that's a bad thing in my opinion


I like BDS' insight into Specs/THC's posts playing off of eachother and honestly it feels like they've been doing that all game, but that could just because they know eachother irl