TWG CXVIII: Noughts and Crosses

[SpecsFlyer17]

All I'm saying is there are 3 options out there that guarantee the deaths through the third lynch, which means if Math was a human and the remaining two lynches are humans, the game ends. It would be very convenient for the wolves to push for an option where the human deaths are guaranteed.

Example, if we do lynch A#, and A#, Poet, and Toby are humans, that's game.

BDS, I do agree that A# has looked suspicious, and yes I don't want to lose sight of lynching people who are suspicious. I'm just trying to keep sight of the implications and chain reaction if we do lynch A# (or anyone for that matter).

Finally, I'm frankly a little concerned by the negative reactions to my dissection and analysis of the game. I didn't do it "trying to score human points", but rather to help the town make an informed decision. Yet, I've received a lot of negative reaction from BDS and Toby specifically. Idk, maybe chalk it up to still being relatively new to TWG, but I'm surprised that something that helpful would automatically been seen as suspicious just because I didn't directly post opinions associated with it.

[Toby]

Hey sorry I've got a lot on my plate at moment and yesterday was a busy work day for me I literally flew to London worked a 9-5 and flew back in the same day which was a long ass day

To respond to some points

TZP so I didn't exactly call you suspicious exactly for your change of tone, but I did say it was something I picked up on and could suggest you trying to be more careful:

On a quick re read only thing I noticed is that all of TZPs posts seem to be serious/thought out so far. Could suggest him trying to be careful in everything he says

But having a flick through his last wolf game in the numbers TWG, he didn't have a similar personality at all. So I can't say his personality is similar to his last wolf game but maybe playing careful could be alignment indicative if he's feeling more pressure this game.

Not sure just an observation

As part of my analysis of your change of tone I did mention that when I checked your wolf game I couldn't say you acted the same. However. I did still brought up the point, and I did indicate it could just be feeling more pressure as a wolf in this game compared to last. You haven't really had an answer for your change of tone but you have seemed to agree with my observation. I do think that's a bit odd to agree with my observation but then not provide reasoning as to why a change of tone, or to let me believe it's anything other than feeling more pressure as a wolf this game.

So while I didn't exactly say it was huge alarm bells, I did make the observation, and relate it to a wolf trait. Which is why, while I've correctly observed your tone changing, I'm not sure why you read Xiao as sus for his change of tone, and didn't provide any kind of benefit of the doubt for him possibly having a change of tone, but also being human - if it's the case with yourself that you have a change of tone but are human ?

.

For specs, while your observations have been really helpful, the trait I'm seeing as suspicious is that while you have put in effort and dug deep to get your findings, you sat on the fence with them. And sitting on the fence is just a wolf trait. Which is why I have slight sus towards you for that

Recently I have slight sus towards BDS for indicating we should consider options that may include losing our confirmed human. I think we should protect our confirmed human if we can, and I definitely think we can. Coupled this with the fact I think I'm the only person he is reading as human this game, and I happen to be opposite him on the grid - which would mean if I die, he dies... I'm not liking how that's looking

Poet I'm reading very town. I think I was absolutely correct in saying I think they're just being a scatty human, who has learned more about the game and is eager to put in more effort. They've suggested lynching A# that would secure their own death which does give them huge human points for me

A# was literally disappeared and not been online in over a day. They did mention they've got personal stuff going on in the topic at some point, alluding to the fact we don't wanna know what she's going through, so I hope she's doing okay. I think she's also just been herself really as sus as she can usually be. And the fact she's actually completely disappeared does also somewhat incline me to read her as human more, as if she was a wolf I think she'd at least pop on to check her PMs or see how she's doing. She seems to have checked out a bit.

I haven't had the chance to fully analyse which lynch option is most beneficial but I believe TZPs data is correct so later I'll try look at where I personally would like to go and my predictions for how that would let day 3 play out. Prior to today I did feel most comfortable with the poet/A# angle as on paper I thought that gave town most benefit going into day 3. The specs angle would remove THC, and the TZP angle puts humans into a forced lynch day 3 which doesn't work.

I honestly could be leaning towards just lynching BDS/myself as I think it's the safest option for town overall. I'll try checkout A#'s posts later and see if I can see genuine sus there but I'm reading poet human so strongly at moment so would be a shame for town to lose her

[Toby]

I don't see anything from A# that draws my suspicion compared to her previous games

I'd probably be fine with lynching me which would secure BDS' death, and then setup either TZP and Specs to be lynched day 3 and 4

[SpecsFlyer17]

Playing centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days.

Toby said this back on the D0, in regards to playing the center or a corner.

I think the same principle holds true, although its up for us to decide if we have enough information to go exclusively wolf hunting and take a scripted option, opposed to hitting Toby or me and having flexibility on the 3rd lynch.

It made sense to take the flexible option on the first lynch, and I still think it makes sense to give ourselves flexibility for the 3rd lynch. If we do, 2 players will have been removed from the pool, and we get 72 more hours to discuss, gather information, and figure out who is suspect. If we play Poet, A#, or BDS, we basically say "We think these people are wolves, hopefully we are right" and the ball gets set in motion.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Maybe more of a rules question, but can "online status" be used as valid arguments in the game? It was mentioned that A# hadn't logged in in awhile, which could be used to say she's not necessarily avoid the game, rather she's super busy.

That feels a little bit against the spirit of the game, however. Can a seasoned player chime in on that?

[Toby]

I didn't see before that lynching either poet or A# actually forced us as well for day 3.

You should honestly just lynch me

[Toby]

Maybe more of a rules question, but can "online status" be used as valid arguments in the game? It was mentioned that A# hadn't logged in in awhile, which could be used to say she's not necessarily avoid the game, rather she's super busy.

That feels a little bit against the spirit of the game, however. Can a seasoned player chime in on that?

I'm sure checking online status is allowed but stalking the who's online section of the forum where you can read if people are sending PM's etc. is not allowed - and this option is also recommended for players to turn off via your settings (so people can't see what you're doing)

[Toby]

I think its just more frowned upon than not allowed since it isn't really enforceable

[The Musical Poet]

I'm sure checking online status is allowed but stalking the who's online section of the forum where you can read if people are sending PM's etc. is not allowed - and this option is also recommended for players to turn off via your settings (so people can't see what you're doing)

Oh wait what

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Alright, I'm officially going to bed and won't be around until after phase change. I'm putting my vote in for Toby. He's either a human willing to sacrifice himself for the best chance at town winning or a wold trying to reverse psychology people. Either way, I feel that's the lynch to go for with the information currently available. See y'all in the night.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Toby I understand your point about your accusation of me as having a different tone. I didn't provide a reason because I haven't felt like my heart is in this game, and I'm not sure why and have been trying to muster an effort to rally a bit harder. Maybe just a bit of burnout? I do understand why you read that as sounding like a wolf under pressure though, your explanation of your suspicion makes a bit more sense to me now.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

A# was literally disappeared and not been online in over a day. They did mention they've got personal stuff going on in the topic at some point, alluding to the fact we don't wanna know what she's going through, so I hope she's doing okay.

Also, I glanced through the thread and didn't see anything that A# said about this? What are you referring to?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Something else I just realized is that there is no lynching block that Specs is in that THC is not also in. If Specs is a wolf, Xiao could have been wolfed in part for this reason—to set the board up so that he can't be lynched without also depriving the humans of their confirmed human. I think that's an ideal way for the wolves to leverage the confirmed human rather than just taking  him out first chance they get.

[Toby]

Also, I glanced through the thread and didn't see anything that A# said about this? What are you referring to?

This is what I was referring to

you dont wanna know what happened yesterday <:

[Toby]

Something else I just realized is that there is no lynching block that Specs is in that THC is not also in. If Specs is a wolf, Xiao could have been wolfed in part for this reason—to set the board up so that he can't be lynched without also depriving the humans of their confirmed human. I think that's an ideal way for the wolves to leverage the confirmed human rather than just taking  him out first chance they get.

I do think it would have been smart for the wolves to wolf a player that gave them an advantage

The Xiao wolfing gives both TZP and Specs an advantage so there's likely a wolf within them