TWG CXVIII: Noughts and Crosses

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Right now Toby is climbing my suspicion list because as I pointed out in the postgame for TWG 117, his social deduction instincts have been very good recently, and they're not right this time, assuming that he is persisting in his suspicion of me.

That feels a bit contrived of a reason.

I think I'd feel a bit more comfortable with your post if you were in support of a block that led to Specs' death; right now, I get the feeling that you and Specs could be possible partners (though I suppose you could also apply the same reasoning to me and Toby).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

If Math was a wolf, I think Specs, A#, or Poet are his most likely partners.

If Math was not a wolf, I think the most likely pairings (not in any particular order), are A#/Poet, A#/Specs, and Specs/TZP.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

That feels a bit contrived of a reason.

I think I'd feel a bit more comfortable with your post if you were in support of a block that led to Specs' death; right now, I get the feeling that you and Specs could be possible partners (though I suppose you could also apply the same reasoning to me and Toby).

I don't think it's contrived--my point, which I suppose I should have stated more clearly, is that Toby's suspicions of me feel contrived. He (rightly) pointed out a difference in tone in my posts from recent games, then said that it wasn't alignment-indicative, but then came back and said that I was being hypocritical for applying his standard to Xiao. As I said back in 176, I felt like he was pointing something out about me that you could just as easily say about Xiao, and tell you more in that case to boot.

Specs is a lower suspicion for me right now just because he went to the work of mapping out each possible game iteration. That's something that's quite helpful to the humans, as I think the wolves benefit at this point from people relying exclusively on social deductions and not considering what the downstream consequences of lynches would be. I'm not clearing him, but I'm also not seeing any other players step forward and attempt solve-y actions in the same way, so it's human points in my book.

[The Musical Poet]

Once I think about it, isn't lynching Specs or Toby the best answer? I mean we don't even know if both wolves are alive and going through the set routes would gamble on if the wolves were killed in the process. We might accidentally set up a scenario in which both wolves are alive with a single human. (Assuming that it ends sooner)

[The Musical Poet]

We have a bit more flexibility with each lynch if we do choose TZP or Specs.

[SpecsFlyer17]

I went over Specs' outcome modeling and I think he's right about all of them, with the exception that I don't understand what he means that lynching Poet is a blunder in the Specs Option timeline.

All I meant was that lynching Poet technically there will lose us TTT in 8 turns, but the game will end before that so it doesn't matter.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Let me put it this way: irrespective of the TTT board, I'd probably want to lynch both you and A# over this phase and the next. Lynching Poet today ensures that the three of you die (or, two of you, if A# is indeed a wolf like I suspect), rather than forcing us to lynch Toby, a player who I think is generally human. The only way forcing such a situation is disadvantageous is is both TZP and Toby are wolves together—if you believe that to be the case, I'd love to hear your arguments for it (that includes anyone else who might be interested in putting forth such a possibility).

Having THC in the hypothetical final three would be nice, but:
1. We were already sort of expecting him to die with the first wolfing. Him being alive is a nice bonus, but not as necessary as it seems, since our plans should have already factored him not being alive.
2. If both wolves are still alive we might not even get to final 3.

If you genuinely find A# and myself suspicious, then yeah, lynching Poet makes the most sense for you in a vacuum.

I don't entirely agree with your thoughts on THC. Picking a plan that doesn't involve the IC dying increases the odds of getting wolves killed around the board. I'm not necessarily suggesting we play purely on that idea, but all things equal, why "waste" a death (that we can plan) on the IC?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Of the 6 possible plans:

3 are entirely scripted: A#, Poet, and BDS. TZP summarized the deaths in a recent post. To be completely honest, I don't love the idea of deciding a chain of 4 deaths with this lynch. The wolves can push for the script that fits them best, potentially even wins it for them before the final 3.

Toby's only ensures Toby and BDS die, and then we get some flexibility for the 3rd lynch, which could be the critical phase if the first two lynches were mislynches. Unlike the 3 scripted options, we can weigh suspicions into the 3rd lynch, rather than being forced to play a specific square.

Mine also allows for flexibility, but it involves getting the IC killed, which seems like a bad play.

Finally, TZPs is a gamble that I personally don't think is worth it. The wolves would essentially control the 3rd lynch, and if Math and TZP weren't wolves, our hands are tied and we lose.

I think having the flexibility to decide the 3rd lynch is important, and for now, that's the deciding factor for me. Toby for now, but I'll be thinking about this a lot.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

If you genuinely find A# and myself suspicious, then yeah, lynching Poet makes the most sense for you in a vacuum.

I don't entirely agree with your thoughts on THC. Picking a plan that doesn't involve the IC dying increases the odds of getting wolves killed around the board. I'm not necessarily suggesting we play purely on that idea, but all things equal, why "waste" a death (that we can plan) on the IC?

I pose this question to you, and everyone else as well:

Completely ignoring the TTT board, who do you think you'd be most likely to want to lynch this day phase, and next day phase?

I think that should be the biggest guidance over which option we go for. To me, what you're doing feels more like dancing around the option rather than actually trying to lynch wolves, which concerns me.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

I pose this question to you, and everyone else as well:

Completely ignoring the TTT board, who do you think you'd be most likely to want to lynch this day phase, and next day phase?

Toby this phase, then you next phase. Something about Toby's posts isn't sitting right with me. It feels like he's just saying whatever benefits him most at the time, and throwing suspicion onto others from virtually nothing. As for you, I don't like how you're trying to throw Specs under the bus when, at least from my point of view, he's been very helpful to town. In the few games I've played with Specs, it seems that saying things without a clear opinion is the norm for him, so I don't find that inherently suspicious. Couple that with the stuff he's been posting being helpful for town, it feels more like town!Specs to me than wolf!Specs. You've also played with him for about the same amount of games, so you should also have this info available to you, so I find it suspicious that you are acting like this is something out of the ordinary to base a suspicion on.

[The Musical Poet]

I pose this question to you, and everyone else as well:

Completely ignoring the TTT board, who do you think you'd be most likely to want to lynch this day phase, and next day phase?

A#. This may be a rookie move, but her lack of activity is extremely high, even compared to the last round. This seems strange since when I looked through the past games, she was incredibly into the game and spoke a ton. I understand that she isn't as active as before, but her posts aren't collaborating very much. You would expect somebody like that would try to find things people haven't thought about, or added on to the subject.

I'm not as sure of this but I may choose Toby. I find it strange that they are constantly trying to attack Specs even when it is apparent that Specs is actively helping by listing all the possible outcomes.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Completely ignoring the TTT board, who do you think you'd be most likely to want to lynch this day phase, and next day phase?

A# for weird day 1 posts and activity, Toby for the seemingly odd criticisms of my posts, and maybe you (BDS) for very quickly trying to get a scripted lynch option going that involves taking out the IC.

I suppose lynching A# does ensure that all three of my suspects die, but again, I'm not sure I can justify locking in the third lynch right now.

When we were talking about instas the other day, TZP mentioned that avoiding instas is generally preferable, as it gives the town more time to collect data for their most powerful tool: lynching. I think the same principle applies here- avoiding a script gives us options for the third lynch. That's a lot of extra time to discuss things and hunt for suspicions. Why lock ourselves now when we don't have to?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Taking a step back from the TTT board, I do agree with Poet that A# has been alarmingly quiet. Definitely want to hear her thoughts on everything before the phase end.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Toby this phase, then you next phase. Something about Toby's posts isn't sitting right with me. It feels like he's just saying whatever benefits him most at the time, and throwing suspicion onto others from virtually nothing. As for you, I don't like how you're trying to throw Specs under the bus when, at least from my point of view, he's been very helpful to town. In the few games I've played with Specs, it seems that saying things without a clear opinion is the norm for him, so I don't find that inherently suspicious. Couple that with the stuff he's been posting being helpful for town, it feels more like town!Specs to me than wolf!Specs. You've also played with him for about the same amount of games, so you should also have this info available to you, so I find it suspicious that you are acting like this is something out of the ordinary to base a suspicion on.

The reason I'm suspicious of Specs is because his behavior more closely resembles something like last game, where he was a wolf, versus Just a Numbers Game where he was a human. Posting "helpful" information isn't necessarily indicative of alignment, especially if the person giving that information is trying to spin it to benefits themselves, like Specs is doing. As Toby pointed out (and as I pointed out the prior day), Specs has been a bit noncommittal until pressed (switching from corner strat to center strat last day, then not giving a solid answer about which lynch option he was most inclined toward), which definitely makes it seem like he knows he isn't in the most advantageous position (either because Math is a wolf, or he was banking on humans doing corner strat) and has been trying to keep his options open.

Comparatively, I think Toby is acting completely normal and pretty standard for how he's been the past few games. The things you're pointing out about him are things he's also caught varying degrees of flak for in the past few games, all of which he's been human in. Plus, one could argue that Toby is being just as "helpful" as Specs has been, which also fits in with his performance in the past few games. As I said earlier, pretty standard Toby stuff.

A# for weird day 1 posts and activity, Toby for the seemingly odd criticisms of my posts, and maybe you (BDS) for very quickly trying to get a scripted lynch option going that involves taking out the IC.

Why is that a bad thing compared to what you're suggesting? "Scripted" isn't bad if we're hitting wolves, and it doesn't feel like that's what you're trying to do at this point. Despite laying out all the options, it feels like you're putting too much priority on the board rather than who dies with each strategy.

Keeping the IC alive isn't necessarily as impactful as what you're trying to suggest. As I said, if there are two wolves alive and we don't hit either of them, we won't even get down to final 3 in the first place. Plus, if we do get down to final 3 with IC alive, there's no guarantee that THC could make the "right" choice of the 50/50 scenario. You're banking too much on the final 3 50/50 rather than trying to avoid getting to a situation where it has to come down to that choice in the first place.

When we were talking about instas the other day, TZP mentioned that avoiding instas is generally preferable, as it gives the town more time to collect data for their most powerful tool: lynching. I think the same principle applies here- avoiding a script gives us options for the third lynch. That's a lot of extra time to discuss things and hunt for suspicions. Why lock ourselves now when we don't have to?

1. I was the one who brought up avoiding instas first.
2. I don't think it's necessarily comparable in this situation. As I said, avoiding a script is meaningless if it steers us away from actually hunting the wolves with our lynches.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

BDS I am totally in agreement that we should be hunting wolves via lynch. What I'm pointing out (and what I think Specs is as well) is that because of this game's gimmick, it's important to consider everyone who dies. If we decide that A# is our best bet at hitting a wolf, it's a guarantee that Poet, Toby, and you will go next.

To your point, it's still important to actively try to hit a wolf with the lynch and not just rely on the blocks to take them out for us—if A# is a wolf and her partner is still alive but not in the A#/BDS block, lynching you rather than her this day phase would lose the game for us, even though the exact same people are killed by it, because the order in which people go down matters.

tl;dr: hunt wolves to the best of your ability but don't lose sight of the domino chain that occurs when you do so