TWG CXVIII: Noughts and Crosses

[The Musical Poet]

I see what you're saying, but the wolves will definitely wolf themselves to avoid losing by TTT. Go read my post above to see the chain reactions. You're right that this lynch today will force the wolves to make a play (unless we take out TZP).

If we assume math is a wolf, that will just lead to wolves losing.

But if he isn't a wolf, we would have less wolves at the table once the wolf dies. The issue is that we won't know if they are a wolf or not.

[Toby]

A# Option
Lynch A#, wolves forced to kill Poet, town forced to lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS. Then a final showdown between TZP and myself, trying to win the ICs vote.

This is very scripted, and ultimately ensures TZP, THC, and Specs make it to the final decision. This route protects the IC, which is definitely a positive. However, there isn't any flexibility for to change our lynchings to people we find suspicious.

Poet Option
Lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#, town forced to lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC. Then a final showdown between TZP, BDS, and Toby.

This is also scripted, just with different players than the A# option. The downside here is the IC isn't around for the final showdown. Again, no flexibility with the lynchings.

Specs Option
Lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC, now there are options. Every choice from that point, with exception of TZP, forces the wolves to kill someone on the following night. Lynching Poet is a TTT blunder, but it doesn't really matter since the following lynch will either kill the 2nd wolf or force parity. The other choices force a TTT tie and it's just wolf hunting from.

This option puts us in control at the expense of losing the IC. After THC is wolfed N2, we have options to traditional wolf hunt, rather than being forced to play a script.

Toby Option
Lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS, now there are options. Similar to the Specs option, although lynching specs forces wolves to kill THC for the final showdown.

This is similar to the Specs option in terms of placement, but it keeps the IC alive to the final showdown, provided Specs isn't lynched on the 3rd lynching. Slightly less flexibility for that reason, but the IC is never forced to be killed if we don't want that to happen.

BDS Option
Lynch BDS, wolves forced to kill Toby, town forced to lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#. The a final showdown between THC, TZP, and Specs.

Also scripted and keeps the IC alive to the end. No flexibility, and basically the same as the A# option, just the order of the deaths are different. Comparing the A# and BDS Option should just be based on who we think is more suspect: Toby, BDS, Poet, and A#, in an effort to find wolves and not lose after the 3rd lynch.

TZP Option
Lynch TZP, then the wolves get a choice. They could kill the IC, or try to force the town into lynching someone. If they play Toby, Poet has to be lynched. Vice versa. If they play Specs, A# has to be lynched. Vice versa.

This is a gamble play for the town. I've already talked about how the N1 Xiao killing could have been a move to protect TZP. The gamble pays off if TZP is a wolf, but its a big risk to take, sacrificing a lot of control over the wolfings and lynchings.

I find it weird this seems to be missing your opinion on what u thinking the best one


As if the logical best option kills ur wolf partner :p

[SpecsFlyer17]

I find it weird this seems to be missing your opinion on what u thinking the best one


As if the logical best option kills ur wolf partner :p

I really don't know yet. I'm still going over everything. Not a fan of the instigation, especially
over a post that spells out everything factually.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

I find it weird this seems to be missing your opinion on what u thinking the best one


As if the logical best option kills ur wolf partner :p

I really don't know yet. I'm still going over everything. Not a fan of the instigation, especially
over a post that spells out everything factually.

I have to agree with Specs about the instigation. Plus, you didn't respond to my post calling you out at all, Toby.

[Toby]

I have to agree with Specs about the instigation. Plus, you didn't respond to my post calling you out at all, Toby.

What is there to respond to? You only said you never trust me and I've been human all of the last games.

[Toby]

I really don't know yet. I'm still going over everything. Not a fan of the instigation, especially
over a post that spells out everything factually.

Yeah any alignment can spell things out factually. What's more helpful to the humans is analysing those facts to put forward an opinion.

Your post was helpful for everyone to see

I just wish after you made it you also provided your opinion on what you thought would be a good action to take - seeing as you already put in the effort to think about it all

[Toby]

Like one of Specs options had himself, THC, and TZP in a final 3 and he supplied no opinion on his thoughts of being in a final 3 where he would know for sure TZP was the last wolf ?

[SpecsFlyer17]

A# Option
Lynch A#, wolves forced to kill Poet, town forced to lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS. Then a final showdown between TZP and myself, trying to win the ICs vote.

This is very scripted, and ultimately ensures TZP, THC, and Specs make it to the final decision. This route protects the IC, which is definitely a positive. However, there isn't any flexibility for to change our lynchings to people we find suspicious.

Poet Option
Lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#, town forced to lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC. Then a final showdown between TZP, BDS, and Toby.

This is also scripted, just with different players than the A# option. The downside here is the IC isn't around for the final showdown. Again, no flexibility with the lynchings.

Specs Option
Lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC, now there are options. Every choice from that point, with exception of TZP, forces the wolves to kill someone on the following night. Lynching Poet is a TTT blunder, but it doesn't really matter since the following lynch will either kill the 2nd wolf or force parity. The other choices force a TTT tie and it's just wolf hunting from.

This option puts us in control at the expense of losing the IC. After THC is wolfed N2, we have options to traditional wolf hunt, rather than being forced to play a script.

Toby Option
Lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS, now there are options. Similar to the Specs option, although lynching specs forces wolves to kill THC for the final showdown.

This is similar to the Specs option in terms of placement, but it keeps the IC alive to the final showdown, provided Specs isn't lynched on the 3rd lynching. Slightly less flexibility for that reason, but the IC is never forced to be killed if we don't want that to happen.

BDS Option
Lynch BDS, wolves forced to kill Toby, town forced to lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#. The a final showdown between THC, TZP, and Specs.

Also scripted and keeps the IC alive to the end. No flexibility, and basically the same as the A# option, just the order of the deaths are different. Comparing the A# and BDS Option should just be based on who we think is more suspect: Toby, BDS, Poet, and A#, in an effort to find wolves and not lose after the 3rd lynch.

TZP Option
Lynch TZP, then the wolves get a choice. They could kill the IC, or try to force the town into lynching someone. If they play Toby, Poet has to be lynched. Vice versa. If they play Specs, A# has to be lynched. Vice versa.

This is a gamble play for the town. I've already talked about how the N1 Xiao killing could have been a move to protect TZP. The gamble pays off if TZP is a wolf, but its a big risk to take, sacrificing a lot of control over the wolfings and lynchings.

Between Poet and A#, I'd pick A#. The downside of going with Poet is that it eventually kills the IC, while going with A# doesn't. Both Poet and A# die first in both choices, so I'm interested in why BDS voted for Poet; voting for A# still kills Poet AND keeps the IC alive to the end. I can't fault him too much for self-preservation (since BDS dies in the A# option), but it's a little bit interesting that he quickly voted for an option that's scripted and keeps him alive to the end.

A# and BDS are scripted options that keep the IC in the final three. I'm not against doing those, but  Toby's option is definitely the most flexible. Lynching me causes the IC to die, so at the risk of sounding a little wolfy, I'll go ahead and say I don't think lynching me is a good choice.

I'm not sure how I feel about the TZP option still. I'm leaning towards no, but I'll keep thinking some more. Allowing the wolves to pick the lynch on the 3rd lynch is a huge risk to take.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

What is there to respond to? You only said you never trust me and I've been human all of the last games.

Couldn't one also argue that someone who thought of this possibility could possibly have killed Xiao so they could make this argument to frame TZP?

I'm referring to this.

[The Musical Poet]

These options are nice and all, but we don't know if math was a wolf or not. This means that we need to determine who we deem as safe to stay at the final showdown. THC must be at the final showdown as he is a confirmed human.

I am ok with being lynched or wolfed as I'm not the best asset later on. However, I'm not so sure about the others besides THC.

Later today once I have the time, I will make a suspicion list. I ask for you guys to do the same.

[Toby]

I'm referring to this.

Oh sorry

I mean anything is possible but thats further far stretched

If you're going to frame someone you dont exactly wolf the person they're suspicious of

But I think no matter who was wolfed, the person opposite was going to get looked at, I just noticed it also felt weird considering Xiao was strangely high on TZPs sus list.

TZP's reasoning was based on his tone being less jokey compared to previous games, but TZP didn't really respond or give reason to my calling out of him having a more serious tone this game. If TZP is a human and I said he was sus because his tone was more serious than usual this game, why would he use that exact reasoning to then be sus of another player ? Surely if TZP is human, and I sus read him for that tone, he could see my indication was wrong, and then give Xiao his flowers that maybe they could be in the same boat for reasoning why their tone is different.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

You didn't say I was sus though? In the post you're referring to, you pointed out that my tone sounded different but that no conclusion could be necessarily drawn from it, since you're pointing out a difference from games where I was both a human and a wolf. When I said that Xiao struck me as less jokey than prior games, I was simply pointing out that that's an observation that could stick, since he hasn't been a wolf yet.

Also, if I were a wolf I would not draw attention to myself by hitting the person opposite the square from me. Wolfing Xiao to disincentive going after me in a lynch would be an extremely hamhanded thing to do—we'd just arrived at a consensus in the previous day phase that we were going wolf-hunting first and foremost, not trying to angle for TTT pressure. Wolfing Xiao would not save me from a lynch under these conditions. And Toby, if you're human, I know you can see that it's just as possible that a wolf took some amount of suspicion that I already had on me and amplified it by wolfing the one person who would make my lynch not contribute to a TTT victory.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Between Poet and A#, I'd pick A#. The downside of going with Poet is that it eventually kills the IC, while going with A# doesn't. Both Poet and A# die first in both choices, so I'm interested in why BDS voted for Poet; voting for A# still kills Poet AND keeps the IC alive to the end. I can't fault him too much for self-preservation (since BDS dies in the A# option), but it's a little bit interesting that he quickly voted for an option that's scripted and keeps him alive to the end.

Let me put it this way: irrespective of the TTT board, I'd probably want to lynch both you and A# over this phase and the next. Lynching Poet today ensures that the three of you die (or, two of you, if A# is indeed a wolf like I suspect), rather than forcing us to lynch Toby, a player who I think is generally human. The only way forcing such a situation is disadvantageous is is both TZP and Toby are wolves together—if you believe that to be the case, I'd love to hear your arguments for it (that includes anyone else who might be interested in putting forth such a possibility).

Having THC in the hypothetical final three would be nice, but:
1. We were already sort of expecting him to die with the first wolfing. Him being alive is a nice bonus, but not as necessary as it seems, since our plans should have already factored him not being alive.
2. If both wolves are still alive we might not even get to final 3.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I went over Specs' outcome modeling and I think he's right about all of them, with the exception that I don't understand what he means that lynching Poet is a blunder in the Specs Option timeline.

So Specs took what I suggested last night a step further and played out each iteration of the game--rather than breaking everyone off into pairs for people marked for death tonight, we can actually look at blocks of people that are guaranteed going to die depending on the square we play.

The A# Block: A#, Poet, Toby, BDS.
The Poet Block: A#, Poet, Specs, THC.
The Specs Block: Specs, THC.
The Toby Block: Toby, BDS.
The BDS Block: BDS, Toby, Poet, A#.
The TZP Block: TZP.
The THC Block: THC, Specs, A#, Poet

I think it's important to notice that the THC & Poet blocks, and the A# & BDS blocks, are exact opposites of each other. Lynching Poet kills the same four people as THC, and lynching BDS kills the same four people as A#. The TZP, Toby, and Specs blocks allow us to be a little more precise with the people we want to see go down.

It's difficult to rank these because they have so much overlap, but I think everyone should say which block they would most like to start the domino chain lynch on. Right now Toby is climbing my suspicion list because as I pointed out in the postgame for TWG 117, his social deduction instincts have been very good recently, and they're not right this time, assuming that he is persisting in his suspicion of me. And I still think that one of A# or Poet is probably a wolf, so I'd be most comfortable lynching the A#/BDS block, starting with A#, I guess.

Please let me know if any of that is unclear--felt a little jargon-heavy.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

In case I forget to vote before the phase ends, I'm going to just put a safety on myself for now. THC.

Since it takes more than 3 votes to insta and I'm confirmed human, I feel that's the perfect safety for me to make.