TWG CXVIII: Noughts and Crosses

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Oh, I see what you're saying.

As I previously mentioned, if they did wolf THC, Math would be confirmed not a wolf.

That being said, THCs presence is going to become more and more problematic for the wolves as the game progresses. I haven't ran through all the move permutations yet, but I think we're in control of how the board plays out, and thus can keep THC alive. Eventually, I could see situations where having a confirmed human would be able to expose the wolves via voting trends.

Killing THC would have been safe for the wolves in the long game, but it would have exposed Math not being a wolf (since playing an edge with a wolf down is a losing path for the wolves). Since they chose to to keep THC alive (which does have risk, since they may not get another chance to kill him), it could indicate that Math was a wolf, and keeping THC alive (by playing corner) was the only option for them.

That makes sense. The only question is why Xiao specifically? Are they deliberately trying to bait us into lynching one of the other corners, perhaps? Because that's the obvious possible mindgame that stands out to me.

As you might be able to guess from my suspicion list, I'm ok with lynching any of Specs, A#, Poet, and TZP this phase, with priority on the first three.

Interesting thoughts and observations on the implications of the wolfing, BDS and Specs. I think that that is a plausible explanation for avoiding THC, although I could also see it being a mindgame. If Math was a wolf, they would have to pick a corner, but if Math was human, they could hit either a corner or the confirmed human.

So right now, the game profile is that whoever we lynch, the wolves will have to wolf the person opposite them in order to avoid losing to the TTT win condition—the exception of course being me, since the person opposite me is now dead. I suggest that, in addition to the suspicion lists we've been putting out, we each rank the pairs of opposite players that we'd be most comfortable with getting killed, since whoever we lynch will have the opposite player killed the following night. The pairs being:

-Me &
-BDS & Toby
-A# & Poet
-Specs & THC

I want to sleep on this, but right now I'd say that I'd rank those pairs A#/Poet, BDS/Toby, THC/Specs, me/whoever, in order of "would most like to lynch" to "would least like to lynch". THC, I'd appreciate your thoughts on this in particular.

So far I'd say, in order from most to least:
- A# & Poet
- Specs & THC
- TZP &
- BDS & Toby

[BlackDragonSlayer]

The only space where that is not the case is TZP. If we lynch TZP, the wolves get options on N2. That appears like a bad play, since we want to "stay in the drivers seat".
But what if the N1 play on Xiao was intended to protect TZP? We've discussed "controlling the board" a lot, but what if the wolves attempted to take advantage of that strategy? wolf!TZP would be hiding up there in the corner, clearly not the target of today's lynch since it doesn't force a wolfing move N2. But, it keeps a wolf alive, which if Math wasn't a wolf, means one more mislynch ends the game.

That's an interesting idea, but at the same time, that play could be designed to put more suspicion on TZP, who already has at least mild levels of suspicion all around.

My thought is, perhaps, the wolves are deliberately trying to aim the lynch toward A# and Poet, possibly because Toby and/or Specs are wolves. Both have picked up a fair amount of suspicion and would be likely lynch candidates regardless, which is why Xiao was wolfed instead of one of them or TZP.

[The Musical Poet]

I thought of this earlier but didn't have time to post.

What if we deliberately try to force the wolves to wolf? It's a slight gamble since it bets that Math is not a wolf, which is uncertain. However, if this isn't the case, we could trap the wolves into revealing themselves, since they can't wolf themselves.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I thought of this earlier but didn't have time to post.

What if we deliberately try to force the wolves to wolf? It's a slight gamble since it bets that Math is not a wolf, which is uncertain. However, if this isn't the case, we could trap the wolves into revealing themselves, since they can't wolf themselves.

Is there anything saying the wolves can't wolf themselves? Not that they'd want to, necessarily, but in a game like this is seems like the option would at least be open to them.

Go ahead and elaborate, though. I'm curious what you're thinking of.

[Toby]

I'll own up to flipping my opinion from the corner strategy to middle. I know that it inherently looks suspicious, but I got a little too wrapped up in trying to win TTT instead of controlling the board and controlling the lynches/wolfings.

I find changing opinions mostly non alignment indicative. It's only trait is consideration of another persons point of view/argument.

Take Davy as an example in the assassin game who was lynched for changing his viewpoint day 1 but was human

[Toby]

The Xiao wolfing does make me a bit sus of TZP for 2 reasons:

1. It basically secures we won't lynch TZP today as we can't force the wolfing that way
2. TZP rated Xiao high on his sus list just before and I think a wolf seeing Xiao high on a sus list would be more cautious about lynching Xiao

I feel like poet might have been a safer option for a wolfing ?

I read Xiao as human because he read BDS as sus for 'clearing' him, but I just think it's a bit odd Xiao was ranked high on a sus list during night 1 and was wolfed when there could be better options

To perhaps contradict myself above I am leaning towards lynching A#/poet only because on paper it's the best % chance of getting a wolf for me personally.

But I feel like poets behaviour is quite scatty this game compared to her last wolf game so I think she's just a genuine human coming out her shell more. A# could be more questionable

But my gut at moment has me feeling TZP/Specs pairing tbh and I want to look into that more but I don't think either are the optimal lynching for today as if we are wrong and go TZP, the wolves force our hand day 3, and if we are wrong with Specs, we end up losing our confirmed human that could have been prevented.

If we get poet/A# off the board that at least clears those for us and we can have a better opportunity into day 3 to lynch wolf if it's 2v3 - with us having a confirmed human

I'm still catching up on topic, catching a flight rn to london for work so got a busy day today

[Toby]

Is there anything saying the wolves can't wolf themselves? Not that they'd want to, necessarily, but in a game like this is seems like the option would at least be open to them.

Go ahead and elaborate, though. I'm curious what you're thinking of.

I assumed wolves could wolf themselves this game, or in any game really but obviously has like no benefit in others

[Toby]

The Xiao wolfing does make me a bit sus of TZP for 2 reasons:

1. It basically secures we won't lynch TZP today as we can't force the wolfing that way
2. TZP rated Xiao high on his sus list just before and I think a wolf seeing Xiao high on a sus list would be more cautious about lynching Xiao

To add to point 2. I'm trying to say that TZP maybe put Xiao high on his sus list then wolfed him to try make it look like an unlikely play from him

[SpecsFlyer17]

Having slept on things, there is a danger with lynching TZP.

If we lynch TZP and arr wrong, combined with Math being a human, the wolves can force the 3rd lynch to end the game. This actually only is relevant (I think) if Specs/A# or Toby/Poet is the pairing. If Math and TZP were human, the wolves could play human!Specs on N2, forcing us to play human!Toby, which would be 3 mislynches and game.

I suppose the odds of those being the wolf pairings are quite low, but if it's something to consider if we play TZP this phase- it could seal the game.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

The Xiao wolfing does make me a bit sus of TZP for 2 reasons:

1. It basically secures we won't lynch TZP today as we can't force the wolfing that way
2. TZP rated Xiao high on his sus list just before and I think a wolf seeing Xiao high on a sus list would be more cautious about lynching Xiao

Couldn't one also argue that someone who thought of this possibility could possibly have killed Xiao so they could make this argument to frame TZP? In fact, the probability of that being the case seems high enough to me that I think there's enough reasonable doubt to not immediately think of TZP as suspicious.

THC, I'd appreciate your thoughts on this in particular.

I think that sacrificing the IC is a last resort move (I would still believe that even if I wasn't the IC). My list for which pair I would most like to lynch/force is:

A#/Poet
BDS/Toby
TZP/null
Specs/THC

I think that there is likely a wolf in the A#/Poet pairing, though if not, it's not the end of the world. Other than that, I just never seem to trust Toby for some reason. And I already specified that I believe IC is a last resort.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Placing a tentative vote on The Musical Poet. Remember, 4 votes to insta this phase.

[The Musical Poet]

Go ahead and elaborate, though. I'm curious what you're thinking of.

Alright, Oricorio said that TTT takes priority in this game, so to avoid losing the wolves will have to wolf the other person on the board.
For example, if we lynched me, then they would have to wolf A# Minor. We can use this to our advantage, since I'm pretty sure wolves can't wolf themselves.
The issue is that it's a slight gamble and we can only use this method twice, but it can greatly reduce the amount of potential wolves, if we don't find one.

[SpecsFlyer17]

A# Option
Lynch A#, wolves forced to kill Poet, town forced to lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS. Then a final showdown between TZP and myself, trying to win the ICs vote.

This is very scripted, and ultimately ensures TZP, THC, and Specs make it to the final decision. This route protects the IC, which is definitely a positive. However, there isn't any flexibility for to change our lynchings to people we find suspicious.

Poet Option
Lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#, town forced to lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC. Then a final showdown between TZP, BDS, and Toby.

This is also scripted, just with different players than the A# option. The downside here is the IC isn't around for the final showdown. Again, no flexibility with the lynchings.

Specs Option
Lynch Specs, wolves forced to kill THC, now there are options. Every choice from that point, with exception of TZP, forces the wolves to kill someone on the following night. Lynching Poet is a TTT blunder, but it doesn't really matter since the following lynch will either kill the 2nd wolf or force parity. The other choices force a TTT tie and it's just wolf hunting from.

This option puts us in control at the expense of losing the IC. After THC is wolfed N2, we have options to traditional wolf hunt, rather than being forced to play a script.

Toby Option
Lynch Toby, wolves forced to kill BDS, now there are options. Similar to the Specs option, although lynching specs forces wolves to kill THC for the final showdown.

This is similar to the Specs option in terms of placement, but it keeps the IC alive to the final showdown, provided Specs isn't lynched on the 3rd lynching. Slightly less flexibility for that reason, but the IC is never forced to be killed if we don't want that to happen.

BDS Option
Lynch BDS, wolves forced to kill Toby, town forced to lynch Poet, wolves forced to kill A#. The a final showdown between THC, TZP, and Specs.

Also scripted and keeps the IC alive to the end. No flexibility, and basically the same as the A# option, just the order of the deaths are different. Comparing the A# and BDS Option should just be based on who we think is more suspect: Toby, BDS, Poet, and A#, in an effort to find wolves and not lose after the 3rd lynch.

TZP Option
Lynch TZP, then the wolves get a choice. They could kill the IC, or try to force the town into lynching someone. If they play Toby, Poet has to be lynched. Vice versa. If they play Specs, A# has to be lynched. Vice versa.

This is a gamble play for the town. I've already talked about how the N1 Xiao killing could have been a move to protect TZP. The gamble pays off if TZP is a wolf, but its a big risk to take, sacrificing a lot of control over the wolfings and lynchings.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Alright, Oricorio said that TTT takes priority in this game, so to avoid losing the wolves will have to wolf the other person on the board.
For example, if we lynched me, then they would have to wolf A# Minor. We can use this to our advantage, since I'm pretty sure wolves can't wolf themselves.
The issue is that it's a slight gamble and we can only use this method twice, but it can greatly reduce the amount of potential wolves, if we don't find one.

I see what you're saying, but the wolves will definitely wolf themselves to avoid losing by TTT. Go read my post above to see the chain reactions. You're right that this lynch today will force the wolves to make a play (unless we take out TZP).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

My Poet vote is influenced by my suspicions as well, having already taken into account what you said under the "lynch Poet" section—considering you and A# are my top suspicions already.