TWG CXVIII: Noughts and Crosses

[TheZeldaPianist275]

The downside of instaing is that it shortcircuits the humans' strongest power—discussing and controlling the lynch. Instaing Math might ultimately have the same result as letting the lynch play out for the whole day, but it removes the possibility that more discussion will lead to a wolf slipping up.

Anyway, sad to see people wolfreading me for being quiet, as I've been on the road for a friend's engagement party, which Specs and Math can verify. I'll have more thoughts about strategy a little bit later today. Honestly I think it'd be more fun to try to win off of an aggressive corner opener lol, but I agree that hedging bets by lynching Math regardless of alignment is probably the safest play.

[XiaoMigros]

The downside of instaing is that it shortcircuits the humans' strongest power—discussing and controlling the lynch. Instaing Math might ultimately have the same result as letting the lynch play out for the whole day, but it removes the possibility that more discussion will lead to a wolf slipping up.

Ah okay, I unvote then assuming that's possible

[XiaoMigros]

Slight Wolf Lean

Xiao: Slightly confused why you're getting similar vibes from me as last game. Last time, I was on the road for 8+ hours a day, resulting in me missing stuff, repeating things that were already said, etc. I've been one of the more active players this time.

I said vibes not activity or message content

as for the cardflip thing, i forgor about that :skull:

[A# Minor]

A#: Posts have been absent and pretty unhelpful imo. Yesterday logged in, posted how there was activity while asleep, and then didn't contribute at all. My initial reaction is she's a wolf and is a bit unsure of the way to proceed, so she's siding on the quiet side. Suspicion post seems pretty vanilla.

you dont wanna know what happened yesterday <: I am aware of that, but as I said, I need to put in more effort during the day and not at 2 am when I lose brain cells
day start games naturally freak me out
yeah, it's called an insomnia list

A#'s suspicion list kinda rubs me the wrong way :thinking: Aside from TZP and Specs being wolf leaned (as both Xiao and I seemed to agree upon as well), my placement in the list feels a bit weird and contradictory.

ooops, I was actually supposed to put you under "null ig"


so if we are basing our lynch off of the board, it looks like we're going for the center, right?

[A# Minor]

meh, i cant decide which one is better


safety on poet

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Something else I've thought of regarding board strategy. It is very much in the wolves' interest for us to be forced to lynch THC in order to block them. Say we lynch A1, the wolves wolf B2, and then we lynch C3 in order to try to force the pincer a la that video Specs sent. The wolves could hit C2 nd force us to lynch our one confirmed human on A2 to block their TTT win. Being forced to lynch THC removes a confirmed human from the pool. It's in our best interest to keep him alive; another way of saying this is that incentives for the wolves to play on the right side of the board are preferable to incentives for the wolves to play on the left side of the board.

It seems like we're hitting the middle today, which works with what I'm pointing out, but if we were to lynch a corner today, and if we lynch a corner tomorrow, I think it should be me or Poet, since we are both in possible TTT wins with THC. This disincentivizes the wolves from choosing THC and prompts them to wolf someone who is not a confirmed human.

Discuss.

[therealmathguy]

Something else I've thought of regarding board strategy. It is very much in the wolves' interest for us to be forced to lynch THC in order to block them. Say we lynch A1, the wolves wolf B2, and then we lynch C3 in order to try to force the pincer a la that video Specs sent. The wolves could hit C2 nd force us to lynch our one confirmed human on A2 to block their TTT win. Being forced to lynch THC removes a confirmed human from the pool. It's in our best interest to keep him alive; another way of saying this is that incentives for the wolves to play on the right side of the board are preferable to incentives for the wolves to play on the left side of the board.

It seems like we're hitting the middle today, which works with what I'm pointing out, but if we were to lynch a corner today, and if we lynch a corner tomorrow, I think it should be me or Poet, since we are both in possible TTT wins with THC. This disincentivizes the wolves from choosing THC and prompts them to wolf someone who is not a confirmed human.

Discuss.

It still disincentivizes wolves to target THC if you lynch me, but I see where you're coming from.

Safety poet

[Toby]

Something else I've thought of regarding board strategy. It is very much in the wolves' interest for us to be forced to lynch THC in order to block them. Say we lynch A1, the wolves wolf B2, and then we lynch C3 in order to try to force the pincer a la that video Specs sent. The wolves could hit C2 nd force us to lynch our one confirmed human on A2 to block their TTT win. Being forced to lynch THC removes a confirmed human from the pool. It's in our best interest to keep him alive; another way of saying this is that incentives for the wolves to play on the right side of the board are preferable to incentives for the wolves to play on the left side of the board.

It seems like we're hitting the middle today, which works with what I'm pointing out, but if we were to lynch a corner today, and if we lynch a corner tomorrow, I think it should be me or Poet, since we are both in possible TTT wins with THC. This disincentivizes the wolves from choosing THC and prompts them to wolf someone who is not a confirmed human.

Discuss.

We won't win TTT

Best way to play is stay in control and have the wolves chasing after us to block

Keeps us in control

Let's play centre

[Toby]

It still disincentivizes wolves to target THC if you lynch me, but I see where you're coming from.

Safety poet

A# already voted poet so you shouldn't 'safety' her

Safety someone with no votes  if need be

[SpecsFlyer17]

KitB right now.

I agree that keeping THC alive is preferable, and by playing middle, we can drive the direction of the board.

I don't love that Math safetied on someone already with a vote forcing a KitB (although there will be more votes tonight) tbh.

[therealmathguy]

I called it "Safety" just in case I am unable to vote again before phase end. But I'm voting poet to support the corner strat.

Again, both corner and middle are valid (so I don't care about KitB) and I'd understand voting for me, but I won't be voting for myself since I know my role and I'm taking my chances on the 2/7

Wolves will probably get me if I'm not voted but I still think they wouldn't win TTT and we'd still hold the power on the board

[Toby]

More people vote middle math please as phase ends in 1.5 hours I believe

[Toby]

The corner strat doesn't work because the wolves know how to counter it

Which means we won't win TTT
and also means day 3 the wolves have forced our lynch as they will have 2 in a row come day 3. Which means unless we lynch a wolf today or tomorrow we lose.

You could say today we are being forced to choose the middle, but at least we are being forced day 1, rather than being forced day 3, where we will have a lot more information

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Host Lean

Oricorio: Set up the game, sent role PMs, clarified rules questions, and won the hosting poll. Probably host imo.

doubt

The downside of instaing is that it shortcircuits the humans' strongest power—discussing and controlling the lynch. Instaing Math might ultimately have the same result as letting the lynch play out for the whole day, but it removes the possibility that more discussion will lead to a wolf slipping up.

Anyway, sad to see people wolfreading me for being quiet, as I've been on the road for a friend's engagement party, which Specs and Math can verify. I'll have more thoughts about strategy a little bit later today. Honestly I think it'd be more fun to try to win off of an aggressive corner opener lol, but I agree that hedging bets by lynching Math regardless of alignment is probably the safest play.

Agree. Plus, an insta gets rid of the possibility of us changing our mind later in the phase, which is an option we always want available to us just in case.

Also, makes sense, and I agree that I can't hold that against you specifically. That being said, I still feel like the contents of your posts have been playing things a bit safe.

GTH thinking A#/Specs most likely wolf pair.

ooops, I was actually supposed to put you under "null ig"

sure you were

so if we are basing our lynch off of the board, it looks like we're going for the center, right?

Yes.

Safety on Xiao for now, will likely change to math soon.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Something else I've thought of regarding board strategy. It is very much in the wolves' interest for us to be forced to lynch THC in order to block them. Say we lynch A1, the wolves wolf B2, and then we lynch C3 in order to try to force the pincer a la that video Specs sent. The wolves could hit C2 nd force us to lynch our one confirmed human on A2 to block their TTT win. Being forced to lynch THC removes a confirmed human from the pool. It's in our best interest to keep him alive; another way of saying this is that incentives for the wolves to play on the right side of the board are preferable to incentives for the wolves to play on the left side of the board.

It seems like we're hitting the middle today, which works with what I'm pointing out, but if we were to lynch a corner today, and if we lynch a corner tomorrow, I think it should be me or Poet, since we are both in possible TTT wins with THC. This disincentivizes the wolves from choosing THC and prompts them to wolf someone who is not a confirmed human.

Discuss.

Makes sense, but regardless, if we anticipate them trying to force a THC lynch we have the opportunity to pre-empt that if absolutely necessary.

The corner strat doesn't work because the wolves know how to counter it

Which means we won't win TTT
and also means day 3 the wolves have forced our lynch as they will have 2 in a row come day 3. Which means unless we lynch a wolf today or tomorrow we lose.

You could say today we are being forced to choose the middle, but at least we are being forced day 1, rather than being forced day 3, where we will have a lot more information

My biggest issue with the corner strat is that wolves can more easily manipulate us into staying away from their squares—if we don't hit a wolf, there are only 5 TTT turns (3 lynches and 2 wolfings), which makes it basically impossible to win via TTT, so the wolves would be more worried about us hitting a wolf than winning via TTT. If we take center it more clearly choreographs which squares they're trying to get us to avoid, and gives us more freedom to either "ignore" their plays or block them off.