TWG CXVIII: Noughts and Crosses

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I'm inclined to agree with Toby here. This is part of why I was surprised that the IC wasn't guaranteed to be in the middle lol—wolves are at a huge disadvantage if one of them rolls the center spot. It's an ideal D0 lynch, and if we do decide to go for a corner instead, they have to wolf it to stay competitive for the tic-tac-toe win condition (and if they don't wolf it, it means math is almost certainly a wolf,etc....)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I mean I think the fact that there's not a video showing how to defend correctly against a corner just shows we shouldn't/can't really go for a tic tac toe win now realistically

Plus if we place corner first, we basically have the rest of the game set in stone for what plays come next

Playing centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days. If we play corner today, whoever we lynch day 2 and 3 will already be set in stone

I agree, with emphasis on the final paragraph especially. Ideally, we just win by lynching the two wolves without any shenanigans, and going for center gives us more of a chance to actually accomplish that. There's also the fact that, unlike a normal TTT game, there are two squares which the O team is deliberately trying to avoid (unless doing so would achieve a win instantly), which could easily muck up any corner plans.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

side note: I have been on the forum for 11 years and as of today have finally achieved Nintendo Nocturne status. Cheers

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

All hail King THC

seems that hidden character isnt so hidden huh

Yesssss...

Ironically, this is probably the best role for me since I'm always suspicious. I am for the idea of trying to win via tic tac toe. I think we should start by lynching someone in a corner. Specifically, I would prefer we go for whoever seems most suspicious of the four, but it doesn't particularly matter. I must say, this game is perfectly balanced to avoid the way to guarantee a win in tic-tac-toe. Great job on that, Oricorio! Thought of everything.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

side note: I have been on the forum for 11 years and as of today have finally achieved Nintendo Nocturne status. Cheers

Congrats!

[SpecsFlyer17]

Something else to consider, if we play corner, there is ONE move that the wolves can play: the center. If they don't play corner, that means the town WILL win in 7 turns, assuming one wolf is lynched over the 3 days. If the wolves don't play center, they're committing to 3 mislynches. If we correctly lynch one wolf over 3 days, we win after 7 turns.

If we play center, it gives the wolves options. The wolves taking a corner can force a tie, which there are 4 options of. The wolves taking a side means they're playing for 3 mislynches, since taking a side on turn 2 is a losing play.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Ninja, I see what yall are saying about flexibility with the center square

[TheZeldaPianist275]

^^another way of saying what Specs just said is that if we play a corner and wolves *dont* hit the center, we only need to kill one wolf to win the game (via the TTT win condition)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Ninja, I see what yall are saying about flexibility with the center square

Yeah, the wolves know who the squares they wanna avoid are and can deliberately tailor their strategy depending on our pick. If we pick a corner they know will lead mostly/entirely to mislynches, they can just play along with it and we would be none the wiser.

Whereas if we pick center, then their wolfing pick may potentially be doubly revealing and potentially inform our strategy (both gameboard and wolf hunting) going forward.

[Toby]

I mean I think the fact that there's not a video showing how to defend correctly against a corner just shows we shouldn't/can't really go for a tic tac toe win now realistically

Plus if we place corner first, we basically have the rest of the game set in stone for what plays come next

Playing centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days. If we play corner today, whoever we lynch day 2 and 3 will already be set in stone

I mean I think the fact that there's not a video showing how to defend correctly against a corner just shows we shouldn't/can't really go for a tic tac toe win now realistically

Plus if we place corner first, we basically have the rest of the game set in stone for what plays come next

Playing centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days. If we play corner today, whoever we lynch day 2 and 3 will already be set in stone

I mean I think the fact that there's not a video showing how to defend correctly against a corner just shows we shouldn't/can't really go for a tic tac toe win now realistically

Plus if we place corner first, we basically have the rest of the game set in stone for what plays come next

Playing centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days. If we play corner today, whoever we lynch day 2 and 3 will already be set in stone

For some reason I keep typing 'not' instead of 'now' on my phone

[Toby]

How did I quote that 3 times lol

[SpecsFlyer17]

On the contrary to that, if we play corner and wolves play center, we do have flexible options.

If they don't play corner (and commit to 3 mislynches), we also gain information about where they decided to play: a side, opposite corner, or adjacent corner. Each scenario forces a different optimal play, and we can use that information.

[Toby]

I'm inclined to agree with Toby here. This is part of why I was surprised that the IC wasn't guaranteed to be in the middle lol—wolves are at a huge disadvantage if one of them rolls the center spot. It's an ideal D0 lynch, and if we do decide to go for a corner instead, they have to wolf it to stay competitive for the tic-tac-toe win condition (and if they don't wolf it, it means math is almost certainly a wolf,etc....)

I was also surprised innocent child wasn't always the middle square as it literally is pretty much a guaranteed spot to be chosen early

If math guy is a wolf sucks for him because he is defo dying either today or tonight lol

[Toby]

On the contrary to that, if we play corner and wolves play center, we do have flexible options.

If they don't play corner (and commit to 3 mislynches), we also gain information about where they decided to play: a side, opposite corner, or adjacent corner. Each scenario forces a different optimal play, and we can use that information.

If we play corner today, then we could have full flexibility day 2, with wolves having conditional flexibility night 2 and I believe we will be forced where to go day 3.

If we play corner today we have full flexibility day 2, while also forcing the wolves to block a specific square night 2, and we then are then mostly flexible day 3

We just have more room and control if we choose centre first and force the wolves to use their night kill to defend, giving them no room for attack

[Toby]

If we play corner today, then we could have full flexibility day 2, with wolves having conditional flexibility night 2 and I believe we will be forced where to go day 3.

If we play corner middle today we have full flexibility day 2, while also forcing the wolves to block a specific square night 2, and we then are then mostly flexible day 3

We just have more room and control if we choose centre first and force the wolves to use their night kill to defend, giving them no room for attack

Fixed above typo

My typos today are terrible