TWG CXVIII: Noughts and Crosses

[BlackDragonSlayer]

so i'm not too sure what should be done about the tic tac toe thing tbh. i wouldn't want to focus on lynching random people just to make a line, especially considering how long that'll take and that the wolves are just gonna mess it all up. like, we should definitely keep it in mind, but we shouldn't base every single lynch on that. we wouldn't want to let the wolves win tho

apologies if that made no sense, i'm not really here right now haha

Makes enough sense to me. Today I'm inclined to go for mathguy simply because he's at the center of the board (a vital position) and because day start lynches are always flimsy to begin with, but from there it would likely be a good idea to simply play as normal.

[XiaoMigros]

seems that hidden character isnt so hidden huh

[XiaoMigros]

Makes enough sense to me. Today I'm inclined to go for mathguy simply because he's at the center of the board (a vital position) and because day start lynches are always flimsy to begin with, but from there it would likely be a good idea to simply play as normal.

I agree

[XiaoMigros]

I think the main danger is that the wolves could force us to lynch a human, if they have 2/3 of an all human line on the board. that said, lynching humans solely to stop that from happening is just as inefficient

[Toby]

I think lynching math guy is best play. Conveniently he also tends to be quiet so helps in that sense too

If we give up the centre to the wolves, they will have a lot of power and can force us to lynch specific humans to block their line

If we take the centre we get a lot of power and we can freely lynch whoever we want by next day phase AND we actually force the wolves where to put their following night kill as we will have a clear 2 in a row and they will be forced to block it.

This way we can essentially control the tic tac toe board. If we give up the centre to the wolves then they can control us to keep the lynches away from them

[Toby]

Although if both sides are playing for tic tac toe then it is inevitable that the wolves will be able to force us to lynch a certain way at least once. If we secure the centre square early I think we will only be forced a way day 3.

[Toby]

I just deleted a bit post I was gonna make about optimal tic tac toe strategy using corners


But I just played a few test games myself and if we play centre square today, we can actually ensure we don't get forced a way day 2 or day 3 which I think is more optimal

It depends if we want to put all our eggs into the tic tac toe win basket because alternatively we could play the corner strategy that after we make our lunch day 3, could basically leave THC (confirmed human), me (confirmed human to me), BDS and Specs on the board. Which may mean we can win via tic tac toe as long as both BDS and Specs (and I guess me) aren't all wolves

[XiaoMigros]

Which may mean we can win via tic tac toe as long as both BDS and Specs (and I guess me) aren't all wolves

if my math is mathing there's only a 42.2% chance thats the case though

[Toby]

if my math is mathing there's only a 42.2% chance thats the case though

That doesn't sound right

If we pick off the corners and wolves follow suit to defend themselves, leaving THC, Specs, BDS and me, then we'd be looking to get one wolf out of the 5 X's & O's played. Which would be a 5/9 chance of catching a wolf but we can call it 5/8 chance since THC is a confirmed human. Which is 62.5% chance that we did catch a wolf so a 37.5% chance of failure which is quite high lol. But I guess for me it was a 6/8 chance which is 25% chance a failure, which is a bit better lol


I think if we play the middle square though, although our mathematical probability might not be as good, but we can factor in our social deductions to lynch people we think is sus rather than putting our eggs into the tic tac toe win basket. Any tic tac toe strategy can be countered though but placing in the middle can actually force the wolves to counter us to where we want to go as well. We effectively are able to have control over both the lynches and the wolfings to an extent.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Okay, figured its time to talk TTT strategy.

Optimal opening play is NOT the middle. It's actually a corner.

This video explains it well: https://youtu.be/0y0-xr2Af4w?si=FCQy_XyIF7vKrHOv

[SpecsFlyer17]

If we play a corner, the wolves HAVE to play in the middle space to avoid losing. Yes, that will take 7 turns, which is enough to hit parity with one wolf lynches. But, since the board takes priority, all we have to do is get one wolf lynched in 4 attempts to win via TTT if the wolves don't play center.

That being said, if they do play center square, optimal strategy will likely result in a tie. Then, we'd be best off just standard wolf hunting without making an obvious TTT error.

[SpecsFlyer17]

If play goes via optimal strategy:

D1: Lynch a corner
B1: Wolf the center

That gives us options. We can always stay on the offensive, forcing the wolves' next move. That can also be tailored to avoid lynching the innocent child, if we pick our moves right.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Optimal opening play is NOT the middle. It's actually a corner.

This isn't quite true. The way I would describe it is that playing the center is defensive, while playing a corner is aggressive. Playing a corner forces the wolves to play reactively (because of what that video explains). Corner openers can force the game into a guaranteed win profile for humans as early as the wolves' first play, which is why the video makes the case that it's the best opener. However, the game could be forced into a draw if the wolves play optimally

Center opener has more possible win profiles than the corner opener does, but it comes at the expense of not being able to force a win easily

[TheZeldaPianist275]

also good grief Specs that video is torture to listen to

[Toby]

Okay, figured its time to talk TTT strategy.

Optimal opening play is NOT the middle. It's actually a corner.

This video explains it well: https://youtu.be/0y0-xr2Af4w?si=FCQy_XyIF7vKrHOv

I mean I think the fact that there's not a video showing how to defend correctly against a corner just shows we shouldn't/can't really go for a tic tac toe win now realistically

Plus if we place corner first, we basically have the rest of the game set in stone for what plays come next

Playing centre gives us more flexibility of what box to lynch next, and also forces the wolves to block us by killing specific squares. It also gives us more time to gather reads on people as there isn't really any defence plays required from us until late days. If we play corner today, whoever we lynch day 2 and 3 will already be set in stone