TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[Toby]

This is not true. At that point in time the lanter seering hadnt happened yet

So I did initially say to Davy that I thought Xiao was sus as his first post after THCs claim suggested to lynch anyone but THC

ATTENTION ALL

Funny how 2 people who died so far consider specs sus, yet the majority didn't vote for them...
I suggest voting for either Specs or davy, someone else can choose so it's impartial on my end. Whoever fights back is a wolf, plain and simple! But town still has the majority! Calling on especially poet and math to help us finally get a wolf lynched!!

maybe he didn't read his PM that BDS was the seer at this point? But I'm not sure why he trusted THC over Specs so fast

But he did later send me below PM so id like if you could explain your reasoning for the above post a bit more Xiao

when and how do you wanna reveal that bds was seer

Xiao did also want to reveal that bds was seer sooner rather than later so town can be better prepared for lynching the fake seer.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Didn't THC claim several hours after the phase change?

Yeah, phase change happens while I'm asleep and then I go to work for 8 hours.

[Toby]

THC, Specs in light of recent events could both of you provide a suspicion list please

[davy]

Ok, let's pick appart those PMs


"you know how bds and i will feel about each of those options" - Xiao

What did you mean by that. How did you think BDS and yourself would feel about each seering option?


Why did you wait five hours between posting your first message this phase and PM'ing Toby?


"the 3 of them" - Xiao

This is in reference to THC, Specs and I (because those were the ones you directly accused). However, my name has never been mentioned in this conversation.


Did you not receive any more messages from Toby after the last one you just posted?

[davy]

THC, Specs in light of recent events could both of you provide a suspicion list please

In fact, I'd like everyone to make a suspicion list. Preferably in a would lynch/would not lynch format so town can come to a consensus.

[Toby]

I didn't respond to the last pm Xiao sent

Sorry Xiao lol

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Gladly.

Would Vote:
davy - If I'm being honest, his plan with Specs really seems to me like a wolf using a human to both sway the game in their favor and seem more innocent. At first I thought that it seemed fine, but thinking over it, it just rubs me the wrong way.
Xiao - I completely agree that Xiao's reaction to my claim was very suspicious. When I first read it I thought that there was no reason for him to trust me at all, let alone over an earlier seer claim. Plus, he was one of the two that knew BDS was seer, who is now dead.
Would Vote Next Round:
Poet - Of course, under the assumption we survive this phase and both my previous suspicions are dead. Poet hasn't exactly talked much, even less than last game, I believe. There's nothing inherently suspicious here, just nothing very helpful either.
Would Not Vote:
Specs - I strongly believe that Specs is a human that was tricked into helping the wolves, as stated above.
Toby - Toby has been extremely helpful since joining this game. His messages and actions have really struck me as human since he first joined. While he may have also known that BDS was seer, the previous statements still make me feel like he is not a wolf.
math - I'm not as sure of math now as I was earlier, but I still definitely have him much lower on my suspicion list than the ones I would vote. He appears to be doing what he can to help town. I'm not a big fan of the fact that he never responded to any of my DMs, though.
Idiot:
Me

Personally, I think a davy/Xiao/Poet pairing seems most likely. While davy is throwing suspicion on Xiao, it feels to me more like he's trying to distance himself from Xiao in the off chance he can't convince everyone to lynch me. Poet hasn't been very active, but I just have a hard time believing that anyone in my would not vote list is a wolf.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Xiao—per the very first rule of the official TWG guide, you are not permitted to share messages to the host. This is your only warning.

[davy]

I'm off. See you all in a couple of hours.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Would Lynch

THC- When davy revealed his plan and the BDS information came out, he retracted the claim, and then stated that both a davy lynch and THC lynch would end the game. Seems like wolf play to try and skate around being exposed.

Could be Convinced to Lynch

Math- This one is barely outside of "would not lynch", simply because THC messaged him stating the seer claim was fake. It could have been a cover with another wolf to attempt to prove innocence if the fake seer claim went awry. Besides that, not enough information or reason to consider much of a target.

Xiao- The timeline doesn't quite add up here. He appeared to trust the THC claim knowing the results of the BDS lantern seering. Seems like a weird move to make, especially with Toby still alive to back up that BDS did flag blue. iirc, BDS used his seering on Xiao N1 and he flagged green, which does buy points. Keeps him out of the "would lynch" category.

davy- The only timeline where this makes sense to me is wolf!davy, wolf!Xiao, masterwolf!Toby. I don't think that's the case, and davy's plan really seemed to have the town's best interest in mind in my head. I'm not against the idea that I got played hard, especially given I'm new, and davy could seen me as a player who has a little experience and might be slightly overconfident.

Would not Lynch

Toby- Going to take the N1 lantern seering at face value. There is a possibility of a master wolf, but that's not worth the low probability chance this phase.

Poet- Not enough activity to risk it. I do want to hear from her though.

[therealmathguy]

Would vote
THC - confirmed by multiple people to have lied about seer role. Claims it is a wild card play as human but it has created more confusion which is what wolves need.
Would vote next round
Xiao - yet to be confirmed if he saw lantern seer reveal before following THC, but THC reveal was after phase change and therefore BDS's seering had likely been shared. Green seering helps a little though
Poet - I literally don't know lol. But she's been quiet, almost deflecting questions given. Could just be a playstyle thing but I could see 3 of THC/Xiao/Poet/Oricorio as wolves
Would not vote
Toby, Davy, Specs - Adding these as a package deal. The plan they conceived revealed verifiable information and as Davy pointed out in his analysis, any wolf assisting in the plan would likely have to throw their wolf partners under the bus by revealing it. If they were wolves, they wouldn't have released info to bait a human player into lying. UNLESS Oricorio was a wolf, the wolves no longer need to bait seer anyway because the game is over if they get a successful lynch.

[Toby]

Will vote
THC

Next Phase considerations
Poet
Math guy
Xiao

Human
Specs
Davy

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Welp. We're losing anyway, so... THC. I'm sorry I cost us the game.

[XiaoMigros]

What did you mean by that. How did you think BDS and yourself would feel about each seering option?

That neither bds nor myself would want to vote for ourselves, since we already know our role

[XiaoMigros]

Did you not receive any more messages from Toby after the last one you just posted?

no, if I've missed any Toby can of course share them